2026 NFL Preview (Part I)

It's Labor Day Weekend.  Which means we've reached the final Sunday without NFL football until February.  (Sunday, February 7 to be specific, now that the NFL has put the Pro Bowl Games out of their misery.)  The season, of course, starts on a Wednesday, which I think may end up becoming a permanent thing moving forward.  Especially if they plan on continuing to have an international game in Week 1.  So, I think that Wednesday opener isn't going anywhere.  Just like how the brand-new Wednesday game before Thanksgiving isn't going anywhere.

I'm also very curious to see how this season will shake out.  Last year, the Chiefs missed the playoffs and the Bills ended up as a wild card team.  We ended up with a throwback AFC Championship Game between New England and Denver.  The Patriots, especially, were a surprise in 2025, with Mike Vrabel bringing them back to relevance in record time!  Was it a one-year thing?  Or is this the start of a new Patriots dynasty?

Likewise, you'd be a fool to think Kansas City won't bounce back.  All those years of winning close games caught up with the Chiefs, then Patrick Mahomes got hurt at the end of the season.  You know they want to show it was more of a one-year glitch than anything else.  So do the Bills, who let Sean McDermott go after another early playoff exit.  And you know they would love nothing more than making a big splash as they open their new stadium.

We also have a changing of the guard in the AFC North.  After years of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, neither one is part of the Steelers-Ravens rivalry anymore.  Who'll have the edge in this new era of the rivalry?  Then you have the Bengals still thinking they're better than they actually are and that Joe Burrow is some sort of franchise savior.

And the AFC South should continue to be the Texans' domain.  Houston doesn't get enough credit because of that division, but the Texans might be one of the best teams in the entire AFC.  As for who'll join them in the playoffs, that's a great question.  Because I think the AFC is gonna be wide open this year.  Not much separates the good teams, and there are only four really bad teams (Jets, Browns, Titans, Raiders) to balance everybody out.  So, I'm seeing a lot of records in the 11-6/10-7/9-8/8-9 range.

AFC East: Buffalo's stranglehold on the division was halted last year when we had a blast from the past and the Patriots won their first AFC East crown since the Bradicheck days.  The question is if they can keep it up.  There really isn't any reason why they shouldn't be able to.  Although, to think the Bills won't still be right there with a little extra motivation would be severely underestimating them.  And, don't forget, it's New England playing the first-place schedule this season.  Not Buffalo.  How much of a difference will that make?

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are quickly heading into Jets/Raiders territory.  I actually think it's possible the Jets might finish third instead of Miami this season.  The Jets have a ton of young talent and have a chance at being more competitive.  I'm not sure that will translate to more wins, but they'll be in more games.  Ending the longest active playoff drought in professional sports does seem like a pipe dream, however.

AFC North: In the North, I'm really interested to see what happens with the two teams that have long dominated the division but now both have new head coaches.  Pittsburgh never had a losing record under Mike Tomlin, and the pressure's on for Mike McCarthy in what Aaron Rodgers has announced will be his final season.  Bringing in a veteran coach was a very un-Steelers-like move.  McCarthy is just their fourth head coach since 1969, after all.  But, bringing in a coach who's won a Super Bowl with Rodgers (against Pittsburgh) might also have been the necessary move to get them over the top.

Would it be a shock if the Steelers struggle and the Ravens win the division, though?  Not at all.  Especially since Baltimore still has Lamar Jackson.  Should Joe Burrow actually manage to remain healthy, Cincinnati might have a shot at being a wild card team.  What's the likelihood of that, though?  Then there's the Browns and their Pro Bowl quarterback Shedeur Sanders.  They're the least bad of the bad teams, so 5-6 wins does appear to be possible.

AFC South: The AFC South has long been the laughingstock of the NFL (although, the NFC South is giving it a run for its money).  There is one exception to that rule, however.  The Texans.  While I don't see them dominating the division, they should still run away with the division title.  Not dominating the division is their problem, though.  That's why they end up 11-6 or 10-7 instead of 12-5 and get the 4-seed instead of the 2-seed.  Because they lose a random game to the Jaguars in October.

I mention Jacksonville because they'll be that annoying team no one wants to play and pulls an upset that screws up somebody's playoff seeding.  Same thing with Indianapolis.  As for the Jaguars and Colts themselves, finishing in the 7-9-win range seem right for both of them.  With the division ready for the taking if the Texans have some injuries along the way.  And the Titans won't be as bad this season, but that still doesn't mean they're good.

AFC West: With the AFC West, I'll start at the bottom.  Because it's not entirely the Raiders' fault that they're in this position.  They just happen to be struggling at the same time the other three teams are all strong playoff contenders.  Don't get me wrong.  Las Vegas and Arizona are probably the two worst teams in the league.  It's just that how good the rest of the AFC West is will make it tough for the Raiders to get out of this pattern.

As for the top of the AFC West, there's a world where I can see all three of them as playoff teams.  There's also a world where I see just the division winner making the playoffs because one or both of the others lost too many close games.  Kansas City will bounce back.  I don't think anybody has any doubt about that.  What I'm curious to see is how the Broncos follow up a division title.  And can the Chargers finally break through, win the division and get to host a playoff game?

When I was trying to project records, I ended up going through every game and determining it that way.  I ended up with all seven AFC playoff teams finishing between 12-5 and 10-7.  I have Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 12-5, with 11-6 Houston winning the South and Kansas City edging Denver in the West on a tiebreaker.  Joining the Broncos as wild cards will be the Patriots and Ravens.  And I think playoff home field (in their new stadium) could be the difference, as the Bills finally make their long-awaited return trip to the Super Bowl.