A New Round

Congratulations to Canada on making World Cup history.  The Canadians won the first-ever Round of 32 game.  Opinions vary on this new additional round, but it isn't the first format change in World Cup history and it won't be the last.  And it led to some thrilling action on the final day of group play.  Different?  Yes.  But no less thrilling than in the past.

Take the Austria-Algeria game.  They both knew going in that they'd both advance with a draw and the loser would be out if somebody won.  They could've passed the ball around for 90 minutes, settled for the 0-0 result, and both made the next round.  But that's not what happened.  Instead, they played arguably the best game of the tournament.  It went from Austria and Iran advancing to Austria and Algeria advancing to Algeria and Iran advancing to Austria and Algeria advancing, all within the span of about a half hour.  And all Iran could do was sit there and watch as their fate was decided.

Critics have their different reasons for not liking the format, which is their prerogative.  One guy suggested that they should "do it like the Champions League" and only have the top two teams in each group advance.  That might be my favorite suggestion because of how impractical it is.  For starters, that would be eight fewer games, which kind of defeats the purpose of the extra round.  Also, in the Champions League, they get a week off between games and play on their home fields.  You can't do that in the World Cup where they have a set schedule and it's only a few days between games.  Otherwise, great idea though!  Moron!

My biggest gripe about the Round of 32 is how, because of all the different permutations involving third-place teams, the bracket wasn't set until literally group play ended.  And, since it was dependent on which third-place teams advanced, you couldn't even really create a mock bracket.  But, now that the bracket is set, that's no longer a problem.  You can make predictions based on the matchups without having to move third-place teams around.  It's so much easier.

And some matchups are definitely tougher than others.  That's an entirely luck of the draw situation, especially for those first-place teams that have to face second-place teams.  That's how you get the Netherlands vs. Morocco, which is easily the best game of the 16 in the Round of 32.  And those second place vs. second place games aren't a walk in the park, either.  Just ask Portugal and Croatia.

It's in the Round of 16 where we'll really see the impact of the luck of the draw.  England's a contender to win the whole thing.  They have to play Mexico at Azteca.  France and Germany have to play each other.  The Portugal-Croatia winner gets Spain.  That late Iran goal went from the United States having a potential Round of 16 matchup with Egypt to a potential Round of 16 matchup with Belgium.  I don't think I have to tell you which one I would've preferred.

I'm not reading too much into the fact that Mexico, France and Argentina were the only teams to win all three of their group games, either.  That's not necessarily a good thing since it means they'll have to go 8-for-8 if they want to lift the trophy.  Winning five in a row in the knockout phase will be difficult enough.  And I don't blame the teams that decided resting players and/or sitting those with yellow cards was more important.  It's no different than an NFL team that's already clinched a playoff berth sitting its starters in Week 18.

So, long story short, I'm not concerned that the U.S. lost to Turkiye.  Or that Germany lost to Ecuador (who was desperate).  Or that Portugal seemed fine with finishing second in the group and getting Croatia, then Spain instead of the easier Ghana/Switzerland/Algeria bracket that Colombia got for winning Group K.  Landon Donovan made a great point during the Norway/France game, too.  What happens if you play everyone and lose anyway?  Then they've got an extra 90 minutes in their legs and still have to travel, which isn't great, either.

Also, let's give it up for the African teams.  Part of the reason the tournament was expanded to 48 teams was to give more opportunities to African and Asian nations.  And the African teams proved that they belong!  There were 10 African teams in the tournament.  Nine of them made the Round of 32, including DR Congo and the world's new second-favorite team, Cape Verde.

Does Cape Verde have a chance at winning the World Cup?  Absolutely not.  Does Cape Verde have a shot at beating Argentina?  Also most likely not.  But Cape Verde is facing Messi and Argentina.  In Miami, where Messi plays his club football.  How can anyone not think that's awesome?

Anyway, on to my predictions for the knockout stage.  Germany and France both win to set up that Fourth of July matchup in Philadelphia.  The Netherlands beats Morocco, then rolls against Canada.  The quarterfinal will be France vs. the Netherlands, two teams that were impressive in group play.  France was more impressive, though.  They make it back to the semifinals.

Senegal lost its first two games, but that was only because they faced two extremely good European squads.  They showed how good they are against Iraq.  Belgium won't have an easy time against them, but should pull it out and take on the U.S. in the Round of 16.  If the United States can win that game and get to the quarterfinals, you'd have to consider this a successful World Cup.  If not, it's just another Round of 16 exit.  I'll be optimistic and think the U.S. can win before losing to Spain.  In Spain's Round of 16 game, La Roja will defeat Croatia.

That third section of the bracket is where it gets interesting.  Brazil gets the Ivory Coast-Norway winner, which should be Norway.  Which means Vinicius Jr. vs. Erling Haaland.  And, like I said earlier, Mexico vs. England at Azteca.  In any other situation, England's an easy pick.  At Azteca, however, I see another major tournament disappointment.  Reality then hits Mexico when they have to leave home and see all those Brazilian shirts in Miami.

Argentina, meanwhile, has the easiest path to the semifinals of all the major contenders.  After Cape Verde, it's Australia or Egypt.  I've got a feeling the Pharaohs will get it done against the Socceroos.  Then you've got Switzerland vs. Colombia.  Are we setting up for an all-South American quarterfinal between Argentina and Colombia?  I think we just might be.

In fact, it's setting up for the European bracket (plus the United States) on one side and the South American bracket (plus Mexico) on the other side.  Ultimately, though, it'll be business as usual.  With a couple of rivalries getting renewed in the World Cup semifinals: France vs. Spain and Brazil vs. Argentina.

Before the tournament started, I had those exact same semifinal matchups.  There's no reason for me to change it now.  Spain's little hiccup against Cape Verde was just that.  A hiccup.  I still see them reaching the final.  Where I still see them beating Argentina.