Two Months of ABS

We're just about two months into the first season with ABS in Major League Baseball, and, for the most part, ABS has proven to be a hit with fans.  They show it on the center field video board for everyone in the stadium to see, and the ABS challenges often get some of the biggest reactions one way or the other.  It's also become a part of the scorebug on pretty much every broadcast (with little dots or dashes like timeouts in football or basketball).  And, while it's a major change, it's already become so ingrained that it's hard to remember a time when there wasn't ABS at Major League ballparks.

Two months is enough of a sample size for trends to have developed and ABS to be analyzed.  There are pros and cons, obviously.  Everybody's still getting used to ABS, so thing swill most certainly change as those numbers are broken down.  But we've still gotten enough experience with ABS to already understand some things.

First and foremost, the umpires are pretty damn good!  Every broadcast now has the umpire's stats, including his record on ABS challenges.  However, how many of those overturned challenges show that the home plate umpire "missed" a pitch by such a negligible margin that it's completely reasonable he called it the other way (and it wouldn't have been questioned if the player didn't have ABS available to him)?  Likewise, how many unsuccessful player challenges show the ball either just nicking or just missing the corner of that little box (meaning the challenge was completely reasonable)?

Are some umpires better than others?  Absolutely.  Do umpires sometimes have bad days?  Of course.  But that's exactly what ABS is for.  And if your challenge is successful, you keep it.  So, if you're confident he's wrong and you challenge, that's the entire point.  But you'd better be right.  Because if you're wrong, it can impact your team.

That's one of the things I've noticed the most about ABS early in the season.  Some teams are much more liberal with their challenges than others.  I was at a game in April where the Angels were out of challenges in the fourth inning.  If you run out of challenges in the fourth, you'd better hope your team doesn't need one in the ninth!  I've seen the second batter of the game challenge a pitch!  What benefit is there in challenging a pitch that early?  And imagine if you're wrong and now only have one challenge for the rest of the game?

Mets play-by-play announcer Gary Cohen voiced his frustration about what he calls "wasted" challenges last week, and I agree with everything he said.  During the game in question, the Mets were playing the Tigers and M.J. Melendez challenged a 1-1 pitch with the bases empty in the second inning and the Mets already losing 2-0.  Not only was it not a high-leverage situation, it was perhaps one of the lowest-leverage situations you can be in.  After Melendez inevitably lost the challenge, the Mets were left with only one.  Because they wasted their first one.

His argument was based on the argument that challenges should be strategic, not a reflex.  You may not agree with an 0-1 pitch in the third inning, but you also might need that challenge in your back pocket for later.  A close 3-2 pitch with the bases loaded?  Absolutely challenge!  That's when it makes sense to use one.  The first pitch of an at-bat leading off an inning?  Not so much.  If it's an egregious miss, that's one thing.  If it's close, maybe just let that one go.

Cohen theorized that, for hitters especially, challenging is an ego thing more than anything else.  They aren't thinking about the implications a lost challenge might have on the team.  They're thinking about their at bat and only their at bat.  Which is understandable to a point.  But, at the same time, it's a team game and the players also need to understand that.  So, they have to pick and choose the appropriate times to challenge.

There have been some pretty bad examples proving exactly what Cohen was talking about.  In one game, Jazz Chisholm Jr. challenged a pitch that was right down the middle!  He was so embarrassed by the wasted challenge that he fined himself!  You want to challenge for the sake of challenging in the bottom of the eighth when your team still has both left?  Knock yourself out!  There's a big difference between that and wasting both by the fifth.

Running out of challenges early can have another direct negative impact on teams.  When you run out, the home plate umpire can expand his strike zone and you have no recourse.  If you think he missed a close one, there's nothing you can do about it.  And there are obviously more high-leverage situations later in the game when that challenge would be far more useful.  Cohen thinks, and I agree with him, that managers need to make their players more aware of that so that they're smarter about using their ABS challenges.

Only the batter, catcher or pitcher can challenge a pitch.  Catchers are by far the most successful group.  Pitchers challenge the least, and they're also the least successful group.  There's a reason for that.  Because pitchers think everything is a strike!  So, as much as ego comes into play for the hitters, I'd argue that a lot of pitcher challenges are ego-based, as well.  Personally, I don't think pitchers should be allowed to challenge at all.  It should be limited to only catchers and hitters.  And there are some hitters who should probably think twice about challenging.

Another result of ABS that's too obvious not to notice is that games are longer.  Not just because of the number of challenges, either.  The ABS strike zone tends to be smaller than the human strike zone.  As a result, hitters are taking more pitches.  Which has led to an uptick in walks.  Again, this is a number that may level out over time.  Hopefully, it is something that'll change.  But right now, it's very noticeable that there are more walks because of the tighter ABS strike zone.

Pitchers will obviously have to make an adjustment, as well.  Those pitches just off the plate are balls now.  So, their location will have to be much more precise.  And, unless they're fastballs that you're able to throw right by them, pitches right down the middle usually lead to more hits and more runs.  With ABS, it's clearly advantage hitters.  At least right now.

One thing I think everyone can agree on about ABS, though, is that the challenge system was definitely the right way to go.  To go fully automated would tilt it even more in the hitters' favor.  And the human element still needs to be there.  ABS is a tool.  Not a crutch.  And it will only improve over time as everyone gets used to it.  After all, it hasn't even been two months yet.