LA28 Qualifying

We're still more than two years away from the LA28 Olympics.  In a lot of sports, the qualifying process doesn't even begin until the Summer of 2027.  In others, meanwhile, particularly team sports, qualifying is either already underway or starts fairly soon.  Two countries have already qualified for the baseball tournament, in fact.

In baseball, they used the World Baseball Classic to determine the two non-U.S. participants from the Americas.  They're using next year's Premier12, the second-most prestigious international tournament, to determine the qualifiers from Asia and Europe (or Australia if they finish higher than all of the European teams), then there will be a final qualifying tournament in early 2028...that doesn't include any nations from the Americas.  So, the WBC was it.

Venezuela and the Dominican Republic, of course, ended up earning those Olympic berths by reaching the semifinals.  And the rationale for using the World Baseball Classic as the one and only opportunity for nations in the Americas to qualify actually did make a lot of sense.  That was the only time they'd have a full complement of Major League players.  So, that was the best team any of those nations was going to put forward.  And, because of that, they figured it was the fairest way to determine the Olympic qualifiers.

Along with baseball, softball will be returning to the Olympics in 2028.  The softball qualification process will look completely different.  The United States gets an automatic bid, of course, and so does the winner of next year's Women's Softball World Cup.  Then there will be three regional tournaments (Pacific, Americas, Europe/Africa) later in 2027 and a final qualifying tournament in early 2028.  The most notable thing there is how, unless one of them gets the berth from the World Cup, Australia and Japan will be in the same qualifying tournament.  They'll still likely both qualify one way or another, but it's notable nonetheless.

Another sport returning to the Olympic program in LA (after a much longer absence) is cricket.  And cricket might have the most interesting qualifying process of any sport.  Despite the Games being in the U.S., the United States doesn't necessarily have an automatic bid in either the men's or women's tournament.  The format is yet to be finalized, but all indications are the six-team tournament will have a representative from each of the five regions (Europe, Asia, Oceania, Americas, Africa) plus either a final qualifier or the United States.  I'm assuming the TBA is because they need to decide if the United States will get an automatic bid or go through Americas qualifying.

Because they're going for the geographic distribution, there will be a lot of good teams left home.  That might be part of the reason for the uncertainty regarding an auto berth for the Americans.  If they get one, then only one team can qualify from each region.  But if they're relying on the United States qualifying out of the Americas, there's a chance the host nation won't be represented at all, which would obviously have a major impact on the tournament (and not in a good way).  So, it'll be interesting to see what they do.

Also, some of the top cricket teams in the world represent areas that don't have National Olympic Committees.  Cricket's one of many sports where England, Scotland and Wales compete separately.  England's the strongest of the three and would conceivably be the representative of Great Britain, but an agreement would almost certainly need to be made before qualifying starts.  Likewise, all of the English-speaking countries in the Caribbean combine to form a single West Indies team.  That obviously wouldn't work for the Olympics, but what's the solution?

There's another "country" without a National Olympic Committee that competes internationally in one of the added Olympic sports where an Olympic tournament would seem incomplete without them, but how they'll be included is complicated and potentially not practical.  The Haudenosaunee Confederacy, representing the Iroquois Nation, is ranked third in the world in lacrosse.  Lacrosse is the only sport in which the Iroquois compete, though, and the Native American tribe, while recognized by the United Nations, isn't recognized by the IOC, which is a prerequisite for Olympic inclusion.

Honestly, I'm not sure if there's enough time for a Haudenosaunee NOC to be formed and recognized in time for them to play lacrosse in LA.  They have the support of both the USOPC and Canadian Olympic Committee, but it may not be feasible in such a short amount of time.  Those players are eligible to represent either the United States or Canada (depending on which side of the border they're from), so they'll have the chance to play in LA regardless.  But they'd obviously like to represent their tribe if they can.

Whether the Haudenosaunee fields a team or not will obviously have a big impact on the entire lacrosse qualifying process.  Especially on the men's side.  You'd have to figure Canada will represent the Americas, Great Britain will represent Europe and either Australia or Japan will represent the Asia/Pacific region (with the other probably also making it).  That sixth team would figure to be either the Haudenosaunee if they're able to enter a team or somebody else if they aren't.

Flag football is the other new team sport on the LA28 program.  The United States obviously has automatic qualification in both the men's and women's tournaments.  The two highest-ranked teams at the 2026 World Championships (the other two medalists assuming the U.S. wins one, the two finalists if the U.S. doesn't) will join them.  Then it's the top three teams representing at least two continents in the 2028 Olympic Qualifier Series to round out the six-team fields.

As for the existing Olympic team sports, soccer will see the biggest change.  In the past, it was a 12-team women's tournament and a 16-team men's tournament at the Olympics.  In LA, that'll reverse.  As a result, the number of qualifiers will change, with each confederation determining its own format.  Brazil and Colombia have already clinched CONMEBOL's two women's spots.  The number of men's qualifiers has, naturally, been reduced, as well, with the biggest changes being that now UEFA will only get three spots (down from four) and, because the U.S. has an automatic berth, only one other team from CONCACAF will make it.

The basketball qualifying format was changed for Tokyo, and this will be the third Olympics using the same method.  The United States is in automatically as host.  The winner of the World Cup will also get a berth.  Then the men's field will be completed using the top finishers from each continent at the World Cup and the final four teams will come from the four Olympic Qualifying Tournaments in early 2028.  On the women's side, the U.S. and World Champion will compete in the OQTs with everybody else, but take one of the qualifying spots from their respective tournaments.  So, two of the tournaments will have three teams qualify and the other two, the ones involving the two teams that are already qualified, will only have two.

Each sport's qualifying method is obviously a little different.  And it may seem early to even be thinking about it.  But it's not.  Berths in the 2028 Olympics are at stake as early as this Summer (and some have already been clinched).  All of which is a sign that LA28 will be here before we know it.