NFL Picks, Week 1

We've made it to the start of another NFL season.  And the league is celebrating by having a primetime game on four of the next five nights.  Although, they've already said no Week 1 Friday night game in Brazil next season.  Not because they don't want to.  Because they can't since Labor Day is later next year.  When will the Australia game end up getting scheduled then?  Something to ponder for the 2026 season.

Anyway, the season kicking off means the first installment of my weekly picks.  For those of you who aren't familiar with the rules, I don't care about the spread.  I just pick straight winners.  Your record isn't determined by whether you cover the spread or not.  The picks will also not normally include the Thursday night game.  I'll still pick it, but won't post my picks for the rest of the week until the weekend.  Week 1 and Thanksgiving are the only exceptions.  So, with all that out of the way, here we go...

Cowboys at Eagles: Philadelphia-For the traditional NFL Kickoff matchup involving the Super Bowl champion, they opted for the Cowboys as the opponent.  Dallas is a huge draw, so it makes a lot of sense.  Especially since it's been a while since the Eagles and Cowboys have played each other in Week 1.  I'm curious to see how the Cowboys look, but, frankly, this isn't the best matchup for them to start the season.  The Eagles may be the defending champs, but they have a brutal start.  They need a win here.

Chiefs vs Chargers: Kansas City-Last year, the Eagles began the season with the long trip to Sao Paulo, won, and carried it all the way to a Super Bowl title.  I'm not saying the team they beat in February will follow the same script.  No one would be surprised if they did, though.  And, if they do, the Brazilian fans would've gone 2-for-2 in seeing the eventual champion's first win of the season in Week 1.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Atlanta-It sounds crazy, but this game could go a long way in determining who wins the NFC South.  The Falcons swept the Bucs last season, but gave away the division by dropping their last two games, and Tampa Bay took full advantage.  While some might argue that Tampa is the better team, Atlanta has a lot to prove after last year's collapse.  The fact that they're playing at home against a team they beat twice last season certainly works in their favor.

Bengals at Browns: Cincinnati-Remember last season, how FOX made Cowboys-Browns the Week 1 national game for Brady's debut broadcast and neither team came anywhere near the playoffs?  This season, they didn't make that mistake.  The Battle of Ohio is in the 1:00 window.  Joe Burrow is back and a lot of people believe the Bengals are a potential playoff team.  This is their first chance to show if that faith in them is warranted or not.  Although, even if they do win (as they should), there will still be questions.  Their opponent is Cleveland, after all.

Dolphins at Colts: Miami-Call me crazy, but I like the Dolphins in this one.  I can't really explain why.  I just feel like this is the type of game that the Colts lose and it ends up costing them a playoff berth.  It'll probably be close the entire way, then either Miami makes a late field goal to win it or Indianapolis misses a field goal down by two.

Raiders at Patriots: Las Vegas-Both teams have new head coaches, Pete Carroll in Las Vegas and Mike Vrabel in New England.  They're both looking to get off to a good start under their new head coach.  The Patriots have much further to go, while the Raiders' problem is that they're in the same division as three really good teams that made the playoffs last season.  If they want to keep pace with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos, they need to take the opener.

Cardinals at Saints: Arizona-Arizona has a chance to be a sleeper team this season.  The Cardinals went 8-9 last year and will be that annoying team nobody wants to play.  New Orleans gets first crack at them.  Unfortunately for the Saints, they don't match up well with Arizona.  Well, frankly, they don't match up well with anybody, but the Cardinals are an especially bad matchup.  Arizona picks up the season-opening road win.

Steelers at Jets: Pittsburgh-When they made the schedule, they had no idea Aaron Rodgers would sign with Pittsburgh.  It just worked out that way.  His Steelers debut will be on the road against the team for whom he played the last two seasons.  You can't make this stuff up!  Maybe Rodgers will give Jets fans a chance to see what they didn't while he was wearing their uniform.  Look for Pittsburgh to start the season with a win.

Giants at Commanders: Washington-This is perhaps the most fascinating of all the Week 1 matchups.  The Giants lost a lot of one-score games last season because of poor quarterback play.  Now they've got Russell Wilson as he looks to revive his career.  The Commanders won a lot of one-score games, especially down the stretch, and carried that momentum all the way to the NFC Championship Game.  Now there are expectations on them.  Can they live up to them?  And how will the new-look Giants fare against an opponent they feel they can beat?

Panthers at Jaguars: Jacksonville-My guess is these two are playing each other in Week 1 to celebrate the 30th anniversary of their coming into the league together.  Of course, they've had different levels of success since both reaching their respective Conference Championship Game in Year 2.  The Panthers have been to two Super Bowls.  The Jaguars are one of four teams to have never played in one.  Don't expect that to change this season.  Although, they're better than Carolina and playing at home, so they should at least start 1-0.

Titans at Broncos: Denver-Denver couldn't have asked for a better matchup to open the season.  The Titans aren't supposed to be very good, and they know it.  They also know they have a really tough stretch after opening with two AFC South opponents.  AFC West teams need to beat AFC South teams.  Should Denver falter here, it could end up costing them in the long run.

49ers at Seahawks: Seattle-Everything that could go wrong did for San Francisco last season.  Seattle, meanwhile, finished 10-7 and only missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker.  That didn't stop them from making some big time changes, bringing in Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp.  You've also got a 49ers team that has all of those guys who missed time due to injury last season back.  Will they play like the 49ers of two years ago?  Or will the Seahawks hold them off and get the early division win?

Lions at Packers: Green Bay-These are possibly the two best teams in the NFC.  I know the Eagles and Rams would have something to say about that, but this NFC North matchup was a great selection as the national game.  We'll know more about both teams after they meet again on Thanksgiving, but whoever wins will get that early advantage.  In the NFC North, that could end up being huge.  Expect that advantage to go to Green Bay.

Texans at Rams: Rams-Matthew Stafford is expected to start for the Rams, who started 5-6 last season only to finish 5-1 and win the NFC West title.  They also won a playoff game and were the only team that was competitive against the Eagles in the playoffs.  So, they've got a lot of confidence heading into 2025.  As they should.  The Rams won't get off to a slow start this year.

Ravens at Bills: Buffalo-The NFL really likes giving the Ravens a tough road game against the team that beat the in the playoffs the previous season in primetime in Week 1.  Last season, it was a trip to Kansas City, and they ended up losing by two.  This season, they return to the scene of their two-point Divisional Playoff loss in Buffalo.  Yes, it's Week 1.  But it's not a stretch to say this game is big for both teams, who could easily meet in the playoffs again.  And, if they do, the Bills will have the tiebreaker because of their Week 1 head-to-head victory.

Vikings at Bears: Minnesota-Wrapping up an opening week that features eight divisional matchups, the Vikings begin the J.J. McCarthy Era in Chicago on Monday night.  The entire NFC North is playing each other, so Minnesota will go into this one knowing either the Lions or Packers already lost.  With how tight this division is projected to be among all three of those teams (who all made the playoffs last season), that's a huge advantage.  So is playing the Bears.