NFL Picks, Week 1

We've made it to the start of another NFL season.  And the league is celebrating by having a primetime game on four of the next five nights.  Although, they've already said no Week 1 Friday night game in Brazil next season.  Not because they don't want to.  Because they can't since Labor Day is later next year.  When will the Australia game end up getting scheduled then?  Something to ponder for the 2026 season.

Anyway, the season kicking off means the first installment of my weekly picks.  For those of you who aren't familiar with the rules, I don't care about the spread.  I just pick straight winners.  Your record isn't determined by whether you cover the spread or not.  The picks will also not normally include the Thursday night game.  I'll still pick it, but won't post my picks for the rest of the week until the weekend.  Week 1 and Thanksgiving are the only exceptions.  So, with all that out of the way, here we go...

Cowboys at Eagles: Philadelphia-For the traditional NFL Kickoff matchup involving the Super Bowl champion, they opted for the Cowboys as the opponent.  Dallas is a huge draw, so it makes a lot of sense.  Especially since it's been a while since the Eagles and Cowboys have played each other in Week 1.  I'm curious to see how the Cowboys look, but, frankly, this isn't the best matchup for them to start the season.  The Eagles may be the defending champs, but they have a brutal start.  They need a win here.

Chiefs vs Chargers: Kansas City-Last year, the Eagles began the season with the long trip to Sao Paulo, won, and carried it all the way to a Super Bowl title.  I'm not saying the team they beat in February will follow the same script.  No one would be surprised if they did, though.  And, if they do, the Brazilian fans would've gone 2-for-2 in seeing the eventual champion's first win of the season in Week 1.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Atlanta-It sounds crazy, but this game could go a long way in determining who wins the NFC South.  The Falcons swept the Bucs last season, but gave away the division by dropping their last two games, and Tampa Bay took full advantage.  While some might argue that Tampa is the better team, Atlanta has a lot to prove after last year's collapse.  The fact that they're playing at home against a team they beat twice last season certainly works in their favor.

Bengals at Browns: Cincinnati-Remember last season, how FOX made Cowboys-Browns the Week 1 national game for Brady's debut broadcast and neither team came anywhere near the playoffs?  This season, they didn't make that mistake.  The Battle of Ohio is in the 1:00 window.  Joe Burrow is back and a lot of people believe the Bengals are a potential playoff team.  This is their first chance to show if that faith in them is warranted or not.  Although, even if they do win (as they should), there will still be questions.  Their opponent is Cleveland, after all.

Dolphins at Colts: Miami-Call me crazy, but I like the Dolphins in this one.  I can't really explain why.  I just feel like this is the type of game that the Colts lose and it ends up costing them a playoff berth.  It'll probably be close the entire way, then either Miami makes a late field goal to win it or Indianapolis misses a field goal down by two.

Raiders at Patriots: Las Vegas-Both teams have new head coaches, Pete Carroll in Las Vegas and Mike Vrabel in New England.  They're both looking to get off to a good start under their new head coach.  The Patriots have much further to go, while the Raiders' problem is that they're in the same division as three really good teams that made the playoffs last season.  If they want to keep pace with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos, they need to take the opener.

Cardinals at Saints: Arizona-Arizona has a chance to be a sleeper team this season.  The Cardinals went 8-9 last year and will be that annoying team nobody wants to play.  New Orleans gets first crack at them.  Unfortunately for the Saints, they don't match up well with Arizona.  Well, frankly, they don't match up well with anybody, but the Cardinals are an especially bad matchup.  Arizona picks up the season-opening road win.

Steelers at Jets: Pittsburgh-When they made the schedule, they had no idea Aaron Rodgers would sign with Pittsburgh.  It just worked out that way.  His Steelers debut will be on the road against the team for whom he played the last two seasons.  You can't make this stuff up!  Maybe Rodgers will give Jets fans a chance to see what they didn't while he was wearing their uniform.  Look for Pittsburgh to start the season with a win.

Giants at Commanders: Washington-This is perhaps the most fascinating of all the Week 1 matchups.  The Giants lost a lot of one-score games last season because of poor quarterback play.  Now they've got Russell Wilson as he looks to revive his career.  The Commanders won a lot of one-score games, especially down the stretch, and carried that momentum all the way to the NFC Championship Game.  Now there are expectations on them.  Can they live up to them?  And how will the new-look Giants fare against an opponent they feel they can beat?

Panthers at Jaguars: Jacksonville-My guess is these two are playing each other in Week 1 to celebrate the 30th anniversary of their coming into the league together.  Of course, they've had different levels of success since both reaching their respective Conference Championship Game in Year 2.  The Panthers have been to two Super Bowls.  The Jaguars are one of four teams to have never played in one.  Don't expect that to change this season.  Although, they're better than Carolina and playing at home, so they should at least start 1-0.

Titans at Broncos: Denver-Denver couldn't have asked for a better matchup to open the season.  The Titans aren't supposed to be very good, and they know it.  They also know they have a really tough stretch after opening with two AFC South opponents.  AFC West teams need to beat AFC South teams.  Should Denver falter here, it could end up costing them in the long run.

49ers at Seahawks: Seattle-Everything that could go wrong did for San Francisco last season.  Seattle, meanwhile, finished 10-7 and only missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker.  That didn't stop them from making some big time changes, bringing in Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp.  You've also got a 49ers team that has all of those guys who missed time due to injury last season back.  Will they play like the 49ers of two years ago?  Or will the Seahawks hold them off and get the early division win?

Lions at Packers: Green Bay-These are possibly the two best teams in the NFC.  I know the Eagles and Rams would have something to say about that, but this NFC North matchup was a great selection as the national game.  We'll know more about both teams after they meet again on Thanksgiving, but whoever wins will get that early advantage.  In the NFC North, that could end up being huge.  Expect that advantage to go to Green Bay.

Texans at Rams: Rams-Matthew Stafford is expected to start for the Rams, who started 5-6 last season only to finish 5-1 and win the NFC West title.  They also won a playoff game and were the only team that was competitive against the Eagles in the playoffs.  So, they've got a lot of confidence heading into 2025.  As they should.  The Rams won't get off to a slow start this year.

Ravens at Bills: Buffalo-The NFL really likes giving the Ravens a tough road game against the team that beat the in the playoffs the previous season in primetime in Week 1.  Last season, it was a trip to Kansas City, and they ended up losing by two.  This season, they return to the scene of their two-point Divisional Playoff loss in Buffalo.  Yes, it's Week 1.  But it's not a stretch to say this game is big for both teams, who could easily meet in the playoffs again.  And, if they do, the Bills will have the tiebreaker because of their Week 1 head-to-head victory.

Vikings at Bears: Minnesota-Wrapping up an opening week that features eight divisional matchups, the Vikings begin the J.J. McCarthy Era in Chicago on Monday night.  The entire NFC North is playing each other, so Minnesota will go into this one knowing either the Lions or Packers already lost.  With how tight this division is projected to be among all three of those teams (who all made the playoffs last season), that's a huge advantage.  So is playing the Bears.

2025 NFC Preview

Can the Eagles repeat?  Can the Lions finish the deal after last season's playoff loss?  Can the Rams, who are built to win now, do just that?  Are the Packers for real?  Are the Vikings?  And how do the Commanders follow up last season's shocking run to the NFC Championship Game?  Those are just the questions about last year's playoff teams.

There are plenty of questions surrounding the rest of the NFC, too.  How will Dallas rebound after missing the playoffs last season and inexplicably trading Micah Parsons?  Will the 49ers continue their trend of either missing the playoffs or making the NFC Championship Game?  How much better will the Giants be after a 3-14 record that was the result of bad luck as much as being a bad team?  And who will win the NFC South?

While the AFC has three top teams and everybody else, the NFC is much more wide open.  There are easily half a dozen teams that can realistically think Super Bowl.  I'm not even sure winning the division is imperative either.  It'll be helpful, obviously, but look at what happened last year.  The Lions were the 1-seed and went one and out, while Washington won two road games to get to the NFC Championship Game.  Now the Commanders have the burden of expectations, though.

NFC East: No team has repeated in the NFC East since the Eagles' run of division dominance 20 years ago.  Philadelphia's in a position to break that string, although the other three teams in the division will certainly have something to say about that.  I do think the Eagles are the division favorites, but that's mainly because Washington and Dallas both have something to prove.  The Commanders have to back up what they did last season, while the Cowboys want to show everyone that last season was the anomaly.

Although, the Micah Parsons trade did nothing but add more questions.  It certainly didn't do anything to improve the Cowboys.  In fact, I think it knocked them from being a solid playoff contender to a team staring at a 7-10 or 8-9 season.  And, while still the worst team in the division, the Giants will be much improved.  They not only have an actual quarterback now, they have two!  They don't need the Seattle Russell Wilson.  They just need him not to be the Denver Russell Wilson.  Even that would be an improvement, though.  Are they a playoff team?  No.  Will they be 3-14 again?  Also no.

NFC North: Minnesota had perhaps the worst luck in the league last season.  The Vikings went 14-3 and were a wild card team who lost in the first round of the playoffs!  It was enough for the Lions to propose a rule change that playoff seeding be based strictly on record.  Of course, that was a once-in-a-generation type of situation.  And Minnesota also vastly overachieved last year.  I'm very curious to see how the J.J. McCarthy Experience will go, too.

Meanwhile, the expectations on the Lions aren't quite as high entering this season, which could be a good thing.  They're still really good and legit Super Bowl contenders, but they may not even win the division.  That's because I think the Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFC North.  Especially now that they've added Parsons, one of the best pass rushers in the league.  And the Bears will be a good last-place team.  They'll be 6-11, mainly because of their division record.

NFC South: Tampa Bay's been on a run of division titles over the last few seasons.  But that has as much to do with how bad the other three teams are rather than anything about them.  Much like the AFC South, the NFC South has two bad teams in Carolina and New Orleans.  Which leaves us with just Atlanta to challenge the Bucs at the top.

I feel like a broken record, regularly expressing confidence in the Falcons only to see them fizzle out late in the season with a playoff berth in their grasp.  Yet, here I am, picking them to win the NFC South yet again.  Call me crazy, but I think no quarterback controversy and being committed to Michael Penix Jr. will make a big difference.  If not and Atlanta falls apart down the stretch again, expect 3rd- or 4th-seeded Tampa Bay to lose at home in the wild card round again.

NFC West: Consistency has been the Rams' trademark really since Sean McVay took over as head coach.  Last season, they weren't great, yet they still won the division and a playoff game.  This year, they make a big change at wide receiver.  Cooper Kupp is out and Davante Adams is in.  Frankly, that's not really a significant difference at all.  They'll keep doing what they're doing and Matthew Stafford will have a lot of passing yards.

Seattle, now with Sam Darnold at quarterback, is a team worth watching.  The Seahawks will either be really good and make the playoffs or finish 6-11.  I'm not sure which.  And how can the 49ers not bounce back after having players miss more games due to injury than anyone else last season?  Especially since the benefit of finishing last is getting to play all the bad teams the following year.  Let's not forget that Arizona went 8-9 last season, either.  The Cardinals could easily emerge as a sleeper playoff team.

In the AFC, it wouldn't be a surprise if all four of last year's division champions repeat.  In the NFC, it wouldn't be a surprise if all four are different.  I do see the Eagles and Rams defending, but the North and South will change hands.  Green Bay's the best team in the North, so the Packers win that division.  In the South, meanwhile, I've got Atlanta. 

As for the wild card teams, the Lions get one.  Unless something completely catastrophic happens, there's no way Detroit doesn't make the playoffs.  I'm also gonna go out on a limb (although, probably not too far of one) and say San Francisco ends up back in the postseason.  The third wild card, meanwhile, goes to the Vikings, who just edge out Washington, Seattle and Dallas for the final spot.

A lot of projections have either the Eagles or Lions winning the NFC title.  I don't think enough people are looking at the Rams as seriously as they should.  Or the Packers, for that matter.  That could easily be your NFC Championship Game matchup, though, with the Rams winning and facing the Bills in the Super Bowl.  And, call me crazy, but this finally may be the year for the Bills.