The Four Nations (and a Fifth)

The NHL is currently on a break for the Four Nations Face-Off, which is replacing the All*Star Game this season.  It's meant as an appetizer for next year's Olympics, when NHL players will represent their countries for the first time since 2014.  Of course, with only four nations (the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland) participating, plenty of NHL stars who aren't from those countries won't be playing in the tournament.  So, it won't be until next year when we really get to see a best-on-best tournament that includes the likes of Leon Draisaitl (Germany), Roman Josi (Switzerland) and David Pastrnak (Czechia), to name just a few.

Sweden and Finland being the other nations to play in the tournament makes perfect sense, too.  They have the most NHL players from outside North America and were the only countries capable of fielding an entirely-NHL roster (which is important since this also an NHLPA event).  There's really only one other country that has enough NHLers to field a team, but can't.

I'm, of course, talking about Russia.  Russia's been persona non grata in the international sporting community for the better part of a decade and is currently suspended by the IIHF until at least the 2026 World Championships.  It's ultimately up to the IOC whether they'll be allowed to field a team Milan Cortina, and they're in the tentative field.  It would be shocking if Russia ends up playing in the Olympic tournament, though.

It's hard to imagine a best-on-best hockey tournament without Russia, and I'd imagine they'll wait to have the next World Cup of Hockey (which is currently scheduled for 2028) until Russia is eligible to play.  For a four-team invitational, though, you can easily get away with it.  Especially since the quality of the field doesn't really drop with just the two North American and the two Scandanavian teams.

Imagine if Russia was in the field, though!  They'd have the best goaltending in the tournament, and it wouldn't even be close!  I seriously don't know how you'd score on any of those three goalies!  Then you throw in the offensive firepower the Russians would have, and they'd arguably be the favorites.  A Russian roster might look something like this, and it would be pretty formidable:

Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA), Igor Shesterkin (NYR), Andriy Vasilevskiy (TB)
Defensemen: Nikita Zadorov (BOS), Dmitry Orlov (CAR), Ivan Provorov (CBJ), Dmitry Kulikov (FLA), Alexander Romanov (NYI), Artem Zub (OTT), Mikhail Sergachev (UTA)
Forwards: Andrei Svechnikov (CAR), Valeri Nichushkin (COL), Evgenii Dadonov (DAL), Vladimir Tarasenko (DET), Kirill Kaprizov (MIN), Artemi Panarin (NYR), Evgeni Malkin (PIT), Pavel Buchnevich (STL), Alexey Toropchenko (STL), Nikita Kucherov (TB), Ivan Barbashev (VGK), Alex Ovechkin (WSH), Vladislav Namestinkov (WPG)

But, alas, Russia (or whatever name they're given at the time) won't be playing in the Four Nations Face-Off.  If this tournament becomes a regular thing (which I doubt...I think it's designed to be a one-off), I'd be curious to see how they'd work Russia in.  Would you make it a five-team event where they all play four games instead of three?  It's most likely irrelevant, but still an interesting question to ponder.  Just as it's an interesting question to ponder how well Russia would've done this year.

Russia's absence will do nothing to impact the quality or competitiveness of this tournament, though.  We've been waiting nine years for a tournament of this type.  There hasn't been an NHL-level international tournament since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.  Players like Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid are representing their countries internationally at the senior level for the first time.  So, yeah, it's a big deal.  And you can bet all four teams are playing to win.

They'll each play two games in Montreal before the action shifts to Boston for the third round robin game next Monday.  Then the top two meet for the gold medal next Thursday night.  I can see any of the four teams winning.  And whoever does will immediately be installed as the Olympic favorites.

Let's start with the United States.  This is arguably the greatest generation of American NHL talent ever, and it'll be exciting to see them all playing together on the same team for the first time.  I'd argue that the U.S. has the strongest goaltending in the tournament.  Connor Hellebuyck is the clear starter, but Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman aren't exactly slouches.  And there's a ton of offensive firepower in the likes of Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, Jack Eichel and the Tkachuk brothers (among others).

Canada, meanwhile, will need to rely on its offense.  The Canadian collection of forwards is far and away the best group.  Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby are all on the same team.  And, oh yeah, they've got the best defenseman (Cale Makar), too.  Goaltending could be a problem, though.  They don't have a Patrick Roy or Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo in net.  In fact, Canada has the weakest goaltending group in the tournament.  I'm assuming Adin Hill of the Golden Knights will be the starter.  It's really between him and the Blues' Jordan Binnington.  The goalie options for Canada were so bad that Montreal's Sam Montembeault made the roster as the third goalie.

Finland (which, don't forget, won the Olympic gold in 2022) has the most solid goalie situation.  Nashville's Juuse Saros is the clear starter.  I actually think the Finnish roster is the strongest overall group.  They don't have as many big names as the U.S. or Canada, but, I'm telling you, Finland is the sleeper team in this tournament.  Although, they did lose their best defenseman (the Stars' Miro Heiskanen), so let's see if that's a factor at all.

As for Sweden, they've got all of the best defensemen.  Victor Hedman, Mattias Ekholm, Rasmus Dahlin, Gustav Forsling and Erik Karlsson on the blue line.  And a forward group that includes the likes of William Nylander, Elias Pettersson, Filip Forsberg and Mika Zibanejad.  I'm curious to see which goalie they settle on as the starter, though.  The Devils' Jacob Markstrom is hurt, which was a big loss, so it's down to Linus Ullmark or Filip Gustavsson.  It's really a toss-up between the two.

What I'm about to say will sound crazy, but I actually think Canada has the weakest roster overall.  Based strictly on the fact that they have the best goaltending and will score enough, I've got the United States making the final.  Their opponent in the gold medal game is a tough call between Sweden and Finland, but I think Sweden has a slight edge.  So, my gold medal matchup is the United States vs. Sweden.

By winning that gold medal game, the United States will have the privilege/burden of being considered the favorites at the Milan Cortina Olympics.  I'm also curious to see how much different the Olympic rosters will look.  Because there are some big names who aren't playing in the Four Nations Face-Off (for whatever reason).  (Canada, for example, doesn't have Conor Bedard or Mathew Barzal, and the U.S. is missing Matty Beniers and an injured Quinn Hughes.)  Does the winner keep its Four Nations team mostly intact?  Or will the Olympic roster feature multiple changes?  You'd have to think the results might dictate that, and that some players are definitely playing for spots on their nation's Olympic team.

Ultimately, whichever of the four teams wins doesn't really matter.  That's not the point of the tournament.  It's designed to get us excited for the NHL's return to the Olympics in 2026.  And a tournament featuring 92 NHL players representing four of the biggest hockey nations sure is a great way to do that!  Just imagine how much better it'll be in Milan when all of the other countries are there too!