From the Red Clay to the Blue Courts

I'm not sure how the US Open is going to top that Olympic tennis tournament.  We had Djokovic vs. Nadal in the second round, then Djokovic vs. Alcaraz in the final, less than a month after they met in the final at Wimbledon.  More importantly, we saw Novak Djokovic more emotional about an Olympic gold medal than he ever was after any of his 24 Grand Slam titles.  That was his main goal heading into the 2024 season.  Now that he's achieved it, it's time to go for Grand Slam No. 25.

Djokovic was one of many players who interrupted their hardcourt season to play the Olympics on clay.  Talk about completely different surfaces!  Although, they were thrown a bit of a bone by playing the tennis tournament in the first week of the Olympics, giving them a chance to immediately leave Paris and resume their US Open prep.  Which means everybody got to play in at least one hardcourt tune-up event.

Although, there were also a number of significant names who opted to skip the Olympics and focus on their US Open prep.  Each player who did that had their own reasons, and I'm not questioning anybody's decision either to play the Olympics or not.  They each have different priorities, so why begrudge them for making what they thought was the best decision for them?  I am curious, though, to see how those who skipped the Olympics perform at the US Open compared to those who played in Paris.

One of those players who missed the Olympics didn't intend to.  Men's world No. 1 Jannik Sinner was all set to play, but had to withdraw due to illness.  Now he heads to the US Open as one of the favorites, but also with a cloud hanging over him.  Sinner failed two drug tests, but wasn't suspended because the tribunal accepted his (extremely plausible) explanation that it was the result of the banned substance accidentally entering his system during a massage.  Needless to say, the decision to let him play hasn't necessarily been popular among his competitors.

Sinner was already going to be one of the favorites at the US Open.  He won the last hardcourt Major--the Australian Open, as well as the tune-up tournament in Cincinnati.  Now he'll have extra eyeballs on him and be subjected to increased scrutiny.  He'll either thrive in the situation or being the villain will get to him and he'll suffer an early upset.

Either way, it won't be easy for Sinner.  He's only ever been past the fourth round once (a quarterfinal appearance in 2022), and he could potentially have to go through the last three US Open champions--in order--if he wants to lift the trophy.  After 2021 champion (and 2023 finalist) Daniil Medvedev in the quarters, he'd have 2022 champion Alcaraz in the semis, then defending champion Djokovic in the final.  Brutal, to be sure.

Alcaraz's 2022 victory was his first Grand Slam title.  He's now won four, including both the French Open and Wimbledon this year.  Plus, the Olympic silver medal.  So, he definitely comes to New York as one of the favorites.  As he should.  (I still don't understand how Alcaraz is only ranked No. 3).  So does (and should) Medvedev.  He's got a win (that ended Djokovic's chances at the Grand Slam in 2021), two finals and a semi in his last five US Open appearances.

As for the Olympic gold medalist, his victory here last year was Grand Slam No. 24, tying the all-time record.  Djokovic is still looking for No. 25 after getting upset by Sinner in Australia, withdrawing from the French Open and losing the Wimbledon final to Alcaraz.  If he doesn't defend his title, not only will we have to wait until 2025 for him to have sole possession of first place on the all-time list, it'll be the first time since 2017 that he didn't win any Grand Slams.  And, let's not forget, he hasn't actually "lost" prior to the semifinals at the US Open since 2006 (in 2019, he retired during his fourth round match, and in 2020, he was defaulted in the fourth round after accidentally hitting a linesperson with a ball).

There is one person in addition to Sinner, Alcaraz and Medvedev who I think can beat Djokovic, though.  Alexander Zverev.  Zverev is still looking for that first Grand Slam title, but it feels like it's just a matter of time.  He has a big win over Djokovic already (in the 2021 Olympic semifinals), and I can easily see him getting another one.  In fact, I see Zverev winning the whole thing.

On the women's side, No. 1 Iga Swiatek made a very interesting revelation the other day.  She admitted that she felt the pressure last year, when she was defending both the title and the No. 1 ranking.  Swiatek ended up losing to her own personal foil, Jelena Ostapenko, in the fourth round and saw Aryna Sabalenka take over as No. 1.  This year, she comes in with a different motivation after shockingly settling for bronze at the Olympics.

For Coco Gauff, things have gone the other way.  She played the best tennis of her life en route to her first Grand Slam title at last year's US Open.  Gauff was riding high into the Olympics, where she was the U.S. flag bearer at the Opening Ceremony, but ended up losing in the third round.  Then, she suffered another early loss in her US Open tune-up event.  Suddenly, Gauff isn't looking like as much of a sure thing.

You know who probably can be considered a sure thing?  Aryna Sabalenka.  Sabalenka's made three straight US Open semifinal appearances, and she won the first set in the final against Gauff last year.  She's arguably the best women's hardcourt player in the world and was dominant at the US Open tune-up event in Cincinnati.  Sabalenka is a two-time Australian Open champion and would have to be considered the favorite.  And, should she win, she'd continue the trend of 10 different champions in 11 years since Serena won the last of three straight in 2014 (with Naomi Osaka in 2018 & 2020 the only two-time winner in that span).

While those three are the most likely contenders for the title, they certainly aren't the only players capable of winning the whole thing.  Jasmine Paolini made the final at both the French Open and Wimbledon, then won Olympic gold in doubles.  Speaking of Olympic gold, we could potentially see a rematch of that Olympic final between Zheng Qinwen and Donna Vekic in the fourth round.  I don't see either of them advancing beyond the quarterfinals, though, since their opponent in that round would be Sabalenka.

Let's not forget about the Americans, either.  It's not just Gauff.  Madison Keys also made the semifinals last year, and Jessica Pegula (who's somehow been ranked as high as No. 3 in the world despite never making a Grand Slam semifinal) won Toronto, then made the final in Cincinnati.  Will she finally get that Grand Slam breakthrough here?  Not if Danielle Collins has anything to say about it.  She and Pegula could meet in the fourth round, and the winner could definitely have a shot against Swiatek.

Then there are the veterans.  Caroline Wozniacki came out of retirement last year and made it to the fourth round, where she took a set off Gauff.  Victoria Azarenka, meanwhile, is back in the Top 20 after all these years.  While it would be a stretch to call either one a title contender, it isn't hard to picture them pulling an upset or making a deep run.

Ultimately, though, I'm sticking with the safe bet.  Not playing at the Olympics (her situation was completely different than most of those who didn't play in Paris) could actually have ended up being a good thing for Sabalenka.  Because she's had a tremendous hardcourt summer and didn't have that random week on clay.  She'll cap that amazing summer by winning her first US Open title.