Is It the Pitch Clock Or Something Else?

Over the past few seasons, the number of injuries to pitchers has really become alarming.  Last week, both the Guardians' Shane Bieber and the Braves' Spencer Strider joined the ever-growing list of top-line starters who'll need Tommy John surgery, ruling them out until the middle of the 2025 season at the earliest.  It's a problem that isn't going away and, frankly, is getting worse.  There are a multitude of explanations why, all of which are probably factors when considered together.

A lot of people want to blame the pitch clock.  When it was introduced last season, it was definitely an adjustment for pitchers, who suddenly had to work with a time limit.  It was initially 15 seconds with the bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on base.  This season, the 20 seconds was reduced to 18, which some think is too short.

There's no doubt that the pitch clock has had an impact.  Not only do pitchers have to work quicker, they don't really get an opportunity to take a break unless they take their one timeout per plate appearance.  And the pitches, of course, are all high intensity.  Some pitchers naturally work quickly, so the pitch clock makes no difference to them.  Some are more deliberate, however, so those two seconds were a huge difference.  Especially if they're having trouble throwing strikes and just want to slow it down, which is something they really can't do with the pitch clock.

However, I think blaming the pitch clock is too easy and too convenient.  The rash of pitching injuries isn't a recent problem.  It predates the pitch clock.  While some pitchers have certainly gotten hurt because they have to work quicker with the pitch clock, that isn't the case for all of them.  And, more importantly, it's not like they started getting arm injuries that require surgery two years ago when the pitch clock was instituted.  

I'm also not sure how much of it can be attributed to MLB's crackdown on Spider-Tac and other types of "sticky stuff" that help pitchers grip the ball better.  I get why MLB banned the use of sticky stuff and agree with the decision, but I have no doubt pitchers who used it thought it helped.  Whether it actually did or not doesn't matter.  It was as much mental as it was physical.  And, in their mind, it helped.

Pitchers who used sticky stuff had to adjust how they threw those pitches.  For some, that involves gripping the baseball tighter or differently.  Which puts additional stress on their arm.  Not to mention the mental factor now going the other way.  They thought it helped, but now they're not allowed to use it.  How could they not be thinking about that while trying to get Major League hitters out?

Then there's the analytics, which I think may actually be one of the biggest factors.  Analytics has crept into every facet of the game, for good and for bad.  With pitching, I'd argue that it's mostly bad.  Because there's so much data at everyone's disposal that it's overwhelming.  And it results in everything being overanalyzed.  Especially when it comes to pitching.

Analytics has led to an increased focus on two things in particular.  Spin rate and degree of break.  Instead of learning a pitch and letting it develop naturally, it's become a high-performance lab test where they work on getting that perfect spin rate or degree of break.  And the way they do that is throwing the same pitch over and over again 12 months a year.  While not throwing any other type of pitch.  Which puts a significant amount of undue stress on your arm.

Which leads directly into another analytics-driven problem, which I think is the biggest factor in the high-profile pitching injuries.  These days, it's all about velocity.  Every team has multiple guys in their bullpen who throw 100, and they just trot them out one after another.  You almost can't reach the Majors if you don't throw 100.  The hitters are better, so you need to blow it by them to get them out.  Or, at least that's how the thought process goes.

They aren't expected to go more than an inning or two, so it's go all-out on every pitch for as long as you can go.  There's no need to keep something in the tank since the next guy coming in after you also throws 100 and you're only facing hitters once, so you can let it loose and bring the heat, knowing it'll be a short stint.  But, even then, the repetition of throwing that hard that frequently with such a high intensity takes a toll.

It always amazes me when people wonder how Jamie Moyer was able to have a long Major League career when he topped out in the mid-80s.  Well, that's exactly why.  Hitters were so used to seeing upper-90s heat that Moyer's slow stuff threw off their timing.  And everything Moyer threw was slow crap, so he could rely on more than just one or two pitches.  More significantly, because he didn't throw hard, Moyer never got injured.

While I'm not sure if we'll ever see another Jamie Moyer-type make it to the Majors (and the reason I doubt it is because the analytically-driven focus on velocity has dipped into the lower levels), I sincerely hope we do.  Because he's living proof that you don't need to throw 100 to have a long, successful MLB career as a pitcher.  Not only that, but your likelihood of suffering a serious elbow injury that requires Tommy John surgery is significantly less.  Eventually having Tommy John surgery doesn't have to come with the territory.

When you put all of those things together, I think you have your answer.  There's not one specific reason why pitching injuries are up.  It's all of it.  The pitch clock, not being allowed to use sticky stuff, analytics, the focus on velocity.  They're all factors.  And when you combine more than one of them, the chances of serious injury increase.  As we've seen.

So, what's the answer?  I don't know.  I'm not even sure there is one.  Because that would require MLB first diagnosing the problem and identifying a solution.  Which I'm not entirely sure they're super interested in doing.  This is what baseball has become.  And the pitchers are the ones paying the price.