When MLB got rid of the second trade deadline in 2019, one of the reasons why was because it had gotten out of control. Nobody did anything at the actual deadline because they knew they could still get a guy in August as long as he cleared waivers. And the waivers were revokable, so if a team didn't want him to go to the team that made the claim, they could simply pull him back. No harm, no foul.
Well, that's certainly not the case anymore! Just because teams are no longer allowed to make trades in August, the September 1 roster deadline to be eligible for postseason play still applies. And now the waivers aren't revokable, so if a team makes a claim, they get him. Which has actually made the month of August much more interesting.
Last month at the trade deadline, I noted that one of my issues with only having one at the end of July is that it's too early for teams to make a decision. With six playoff berths in each league, there are way too many teams still close enough to playoff position two weeks after the All*Star Break that they can't justify being sellers, but also far enough away to not think it's prudent to be buyers. Well, as it turns out, they can change their minds in August, and it might actually work out better!
It gives teams the chance to reevaluate. If they're in a better position than they thought, they can make some waiver claims. Likewise, if they had a bad August that dropped them out of contention, they can be realistic about it and see if there are any takers for some veterans who may or may not be high-priced, but somebody in the race thinks might help them down the stretch and in the postseason. Or they can treat it like a reset button.
That's what the Angels just did. In late July, they decided to hang on to Ohtani and were aggressive buyers, most notably getting Lucas Giolito from the White Sox. Giolito was awful with the Angels, Ohtani most likely needs another Tommy John, Mike Trout came back for one game then got hurt again, and they had the worst record in baseball in August (how is it possible they were worse than the Yankees?).
So what do the Angels do? They admit their mistake and put all those guys on waivers! Five weeks after being traded to the Angels, Giolito was picked up by Cleveland. The Guardians also got Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez, while Hunter Renfroe went to the Reds and Dominic Leone was claimed by Seattle. The Angels gutted their farm system to go all-in. A month later, they were getting rid of the same players they just acquired so that they can get under the luxury tax threshold.
Then there's the Yankees. They didn't do anything at the deadline, which didn't make sense for a team that was on the fringes of contention and badly needed to improve. Then August hit, they got even worse, and reality set in. So they also put some guys on waivers and committed to a youth movement. As a result, Harrison Bader is now a Cincinnati Red.
What's interesting about the Angels and Yankees is their different approaches in July. The Yankees drew a lot of criticism for basically standing pat and hanging on to their prospects. But by doing that, they didn't lose them. Unlike the Angels, who not only missed the mark on their trades and missed the playoffs again, they also made their farm system much worse in the process.
This is exactly what I meant about teams having more time to assess their chances, too. Cleveland wouldn't have any shot at making the playoffs in five of six divisions. They just happen to play in the AL Central, though, so they have every reason to think they can make a September run and get into the postseason as the No. 3 seed in the AL.
Same thing with Cincinnati, the other most-active team on the waiver wire. They didn't do much in July, but started to slip in August and knew they needed to improve if they wanted to hang on to a wild card spot. So they made several waiver claims. They only ended up getting Bader and Renfroe, but they also put in for the pitchers who went to Cleveland (if multiple teams make a claim for the same player, the one with the worse record has the priority).
I can easily see this becoming the new approach moving forward. Like most things in baseball, once one team proves something works, everyone else is gonna copy it. The jury's still out on whether making a bunch of waiver claims at the end of August actually will work out. But if it does, you know we're gonna start seeing it regularly. Especially if it only costs you picking up that player's salary without losing any prospects.
There's another element at play here, too. The waiver priority hasn't changed. It's still the team with the worse record gets the player, but now they simply get him. There's no working out a trade. You don't need to try and figure out who you're willing to give up. Because you don't need to give up anybody. You just need to hope there isn't a worse team who wants the same player. And, assuming the players put on waivers are free-agents-to-be, it's only a month's worth of salary you need to pick up.
Moving forward, these are things teams will have to consider on both sides of the late August waiver window. And the fact that it happens literally in the last few days of August makes it that much more compelling. It gives the "sellers" time to post guys and the "buyers" still have time to grab them before the September 1 roster deadline. By then, teams will know whether they're going for it in the final month or looking ahead to next year, so those decisions will be much easier (or at least easier to swallow).
Even though we can't get those shocking last-minute Verlander-to-the-Astros trades at the end of August anymore, we knew that there could and would still be movement. And if the waiver claim deadline continues to be this crazy in the future, it could end up being just as compelling as the trade deadline. If not more so.
No comments:
Post a Comment