Sunday, April 2, 2023

Most Unlikely Final Four Teams

Florida Atlantic's incredible run has come to an end.  The Owls, who had never won an NCAA Tournament game prior to this season, came thisclose to making the National Championship Game.  It actually would've been a fitting ending for one of the craziest, most unexpected NCAA Tournaments in recent memory.  Three of this year's Final Four teams were first-timers, although Florida Atlantic was definitely the most unlikely (even though it maybe shouldn't have been).

The Owls are just the latest unexpected Final Four team.  In recent years, there have been some blue blood programs that reached the Final Four (or Championship Game) in seasons where they were given a lower seed and got hot at the right time.  But there have also been some lower-seeded mid-major teams, like Florida Atlantic, that came seemingly out of nowhere and took the college basketball world by storm.

Which of those runs is the most unlikely, though?  Had Saint Peter's beaten North Carolina in the Elite Eight last year, there's no question who would've been No. 1!  But this isn't the most unlikely Elite Eight teams!  It's the most unlikely Final Four teams.  So, who is it then?

10. LSU (1986): LSU was the original unlikely Final Four team.  The first (and, for a while, only) 11-seed ever to make it, they beat the top three seeds in their region, including a Kentucky team that had already beaten them three times that season in the Southeast Regional Final, before losing to eventual National Champion Louisville in the Final Four.  Also, fun fact about this team, they played the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament at home, prompting the rule change requiring games to be played at neutral sites.

9. Syracuse (2016): I'll be honest.  I thought Syracuse had absolutely no business making the NCAA Tournament in 2016.  They were 19-13, only finished tied for ninth in the ACC, and lost their first game in the ACC Tournament.  Well, not only did they get in, they didn't even have to go to Dayton!  They got a 10-seed!  And they proceeded to prove me completely wrong by making it all the way to the Final Four, where they lost to North Carolina.

8. South Carolina (2017): One year after 10th-seeded Syracuse, it was a random team from the SEC that reached the Final Four.  Frank Martin's South Carolina Gamecocks entered the NCAA Tournament having lost five out of seven and were the 7-seed in a loaded East Region that included No. 1 overall seed Villanova and ACC champion Duke.  It was South Carolina that made it to the Final Four out of the region, though, defeating fellow SEC team Florida in the Regional Final at Madison Square Garden.

7. UCLA (2021): Something weird was gonna happen in the 2021 Tournament that took place entirely in and around Indianapolis.  And UCLA becoming the second team ever to go from the First Four to the Final Four certainly qualifies!  They beat Michigan State in the First Four, then got on a roll, defeating second-seeded Alabama and top-seeded Michigan to set up a Final Four meeting with Gonzaga, a game that would become an instant classic, with Gonzaga winning 93-90 in overtime.

6. Wichita State (2013): Wichita State earned an at-large bid and a 9-seed after losing to Creighton in the MVC Championship Game, then cruised past Pitt in the first round of the NCAA Tournament before upsetting top-seeded Gonzaga.  After wins over La Salle and Ohio State, they became the Missouri Valley's first Final Four team since 1979, as well as the first 9-seed ever to make the Final Four in a 64-team field.  They gave eventual champion Louisville a game, too, losing 72-68.

5. Butler (2011): Butler almost won the National Championship in 2010, coming a Gordon Hayward halfcourt shot at the buzzer short of knocking off Duke.  They were a 5-seed that year, and that run was unlikely in its own right.  Butler's return to the Championship Game a year later was even more surprising.  They were an 8-seed and nearly lost to Old Dominion in the first round.  Then they upset Pitt, beat Wisconsin and knocked off Florida in overtime to get back to the Final Four, where they topped VCU (more on them later) in the most unlikely National Semifinal ever before falling to UConn.

4. Florida Atlantic (2023): Maybe we should've seen it coming with Florida Atlantic.  They did, after all, win the most games in the nation this season.  But they had also never won an NCAA Tournament game prior to this year.  The only Conference USA team in the field, they won four to earn the league's first Final Four berth since Marquette in 2003.  And the magical run nearly ended with a National Championship Game appearance.

3. George Mason (2006): This George Mason team was talked about a lot this week since its coach, Jim Larranaga, returned to the Final Four this year with Miami.  What George Mason did in 2006, though, was truly memorable.  They got an at-large bid out of the CAA and were one of the last teams in.  They ended up beating Michigan State, North Carolina and Wichita State before topping UConn in a classic Regional Final to become the second 11-seed, and first team from the CAA, to reach the Final Four.

2. Loyola Chicago (2018): Sister Jean became a national celebrity during Loyola Chicago's surprise run to its first Final Four since winning the National Championship in 1963.  They hadn't even made the Tournament since 1985, went 28-5 during the regular season and won the MVC Tournament.  Then it was a bunch of close wins--two points over Miami, one against Tennessee, one against Nevada--before a comfortable victory over Kansas State in the 9 vs. 11 South Regional Final.  And suddenly the Ramblers were rambling their way to the Final Four.

1. VCU (2011): In 2011, they expanded the field to 68 teams and introduced the First Four.  That's the only reason VCU even made the tournament!  Well, the Rams sure took advantage of the opportunity, going on the unlikeliest Final Four run in history.  They beat USC in the First Four, then blew out Georgetown and Purdue.  After a one-point overtime win over Florida State, they knocked off top-seeded Kansas to, incredibly, make it to Houston and the most unexpected National Semifinal matchup ever against Butler.

Did the NCAA expect a team to go from First Four to Final Four in the first year of the First Four?  Of course not!  But it sure was proof that adding three more at-large teams to the field was a good idea.  And it's also proof that there are some pretty good mid-major teams out there!  The fact that a VCU or a Florida Atlantic can make the Final Four just goes to show you why the NCAA Tournament is one of the best sporting events around.  And, hey, they do call it "Madness" after all!

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