In news that should shock absolutely no one, a British newspaper is reporting that, based on the success of the World Cup, Qatar is preparing a "serious bid" for the 2036 Olympics. Qatar has made no secret of the fact that it wants to host major international sporting events, and 2036 wouldn't be their first Olympic bid, either. In fact, it was only after all of their unsuccessful Olympic bids that they pivoted to hosting the World Cup.
Qatar's argument is based mainly on the idea that they've shown they can not only host a major global sporting event, they can do it at "low cost." Of course, part of that "low cost" Olympics involves using all of the new stadiums that were built for the World Cup, all of which are within about 10 miles from the Doha city center. Seeing as I haven't seen what the planned post-World Cup use for those stadiums is, it makes sense that they'd be at the center of a Doha Olympic bid, especially since all but one of them are permanent.
And it really shouldn't be a surprise that this World Cup has gone off without a hitch. Qatar already has a proven track record of hosting World Championships, etc. in numerous sports, both indoor and outdoor. This is just the latest example. So, no one doubts that Doha would be able to pull off an Olympics. Except the problems that plagued all previous Doha bids will still exist, even after this successful World Cup.
The biggest issue is the most obvious. We're playing the World Cup right now because of Doha's intense summer heat. The 2019 Track & Field World Championships in Doha were held in late September for the same reason...with no evening sessions and midnight marathons. They'll also host the Swimming World Championships in 2024, just six months before the start of the Paris Games!
That's been the main reason all previous Doha Olympic bids haven't gained much traction. The Summer Olympics are traditionally held sometime in July or August. The summer heat in the Middle East makes that practically impossible, though. So, Doha's plan is to hold the Olympics in...November! Which would not work for a number of reasons.
It's true that there have been Summer Olympics held outside of the July-August window in the past. The 1956 Melbourne Games ended right around now, and both the 1964 and 1968 Olympics were held entirely within the month of October. More recently, the 1988 Seoul Games and 2000 Sydney Games were "late," both taking place in September and ending in early October.
But there's a big difference between 1956, 1964, 1968 and 2036. Television! Back then, the Olympics were just a sporting event. Now, they're a multi-billion dollar made-for-TV spectacle. Global TV rights make up the bulk of the IOC's revenue (and, by extension, the various international federations' revenue). That's why it was so imperative to still have the COVID-delayed Tokyo Games last year, even if it was without fans in attendance.
Worldwide TV wants the Olympics in July-August. That's when there's nothing else going on and they can dedicate two weeks' worth of programming to the Olympics. That's also when people take vacations and are able to travel to the Olympic host city as spectators. It's not necessarily the ideal time weather-wise for the host cities, but they do it anyway because that's the best time for all of the broadcasters around the world.
November is NOT the ideal time. Not by a long shot. Just using the U.S. as an example, the NFL, NBA, NHL, college football and college basketball are all in season, networks are deep into their fall schedules of original programming (I realize this is becoming less and less of an issue and may not be one at all by 2036, but the other issues still apply). It's also the heart of European soccer season. So working an Olympics into that schedule is beyond difficult. (Yes, they do it in February for the Winter Olympics, but the Summer Games are a totally different animal that requires a significantly larger programming commitment.) And, don't forget, kids are in school and it's harder to take off work in November!
We've already seen the type of problems that can create during the World Cup. FOX obviously isn't going to preempt its Sunday slate of NFL games for the World Cup, which meant the World Cup got booted to FS1. That could've proven incredibly problematic had the U.S. won Group B and ended up playing its round of 16 game at 2:00 on Sunday instead of 10:00 on Saturday. (That really pissed off a British journalist for some reason, even though it made complete sense to Americans!)
There's also something else working against a Doha bid for 2036--the other bidders. The IOC has changed the bid process, so it's much different than it was in the past. But there are already plenty of interested cities...for an event 14 years from now! One of those bidders will almost certainly be from Europe. By 2036, it'll have been 12 years since an Olympics in Europe, so any European bidder would have to be the favorite.
Let's not forget, too, that when Qatar was controversially awarded the World Cup in 2010, it was not-so-subtly suggested that they "bought" the World Cup. Sepp Blatter, the former FIFA President, all but confirmed it before the start of the tournament. With the new Olympic bid process, which is significantly less transparent, I have no doubt that would be an issue again. Even if Doha was selected legitimately, there would undoubtedly be suggestions of impropriety. Does the IOC want to take that chance and risk looking as bad for selecting Doha as FIFA?
Lastly, and most importantly, there are the very real human rights concerns. The IOC received heavy criticism for having this year's Winter Games in China, which has a questionable human rights record of its own, and, even though FOX has shied away from talking about it at all during its coverage, everyone knows about the situation involving the working conditions in the lead-up to the World Cup. Don't think that's something the IOC isn't aware of or will be able to ignore.
Doha has proven itself as a capable host, and you know the Games would be well-financed. It also would be a very significant choice, bringing the Olympics to the Middle East for the first time. There are too many variables working against a 2036 Doha Olympic bid, though. Which is why I just don't see it happening. At least not in 2036.
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