B1G Changes In LA

Wow!  That all went down fast!  I know I shouldn't be surprised by anything involving big-time college sports anymore, but I am.  In fact, I'm shocked by UCLA and USC's move to the Big Ten.  Not necessarily that it happened, but how it happened.  And how it happened so quickly.

It went from a rumor to a done deal within a matter of hours!  Seriously, how did nobody have a heads up about this?!  It had obviously been in the works!  And, make no mistake, this has the potential to shake up the Power 5 even more than Texas and Oklahoma's move to the SEC.

That, of course, was the first move.  Once they officially join in 2025, the SEC will have 16 teams.  You knew the Big Ten wasn't gonna sit there and let them be the only one with that many schools, so the Big Ten going to 16 seemed like it was only a matter of time.  Especially since we were coming up on the time for them to negotiate their new TV deal.

Even before this expansion announcement, it was suspected that the Big Ten's new rights package would be the biggest in college sports history.  Now that they've added two marquee national programs in the second-largest media market in the country, there's no doubt that will be the case.  Beyond that, though, the Big Ten is now truly a national conference, stretching from coast to coast.  That's quite a pitch to any possible recruit in any sport!

And it makes sense that UCLA and USC would be a package deal.  That obviously makes things easy from a travel perspective for the other 14 Big Ten teams since it's just one trip to LA to play both of them.  But it makes sense for the two LA schools, as well.  They're archrivals who'll always be linked together.  It's impossible to picture them not being in the same conference!  They know that too, which is why they made this move together.  It was either gonna be both or neither one!

Of course, this now raises all sorts of questions, as another round of conference realignment begins.  Most significantly, where does the Pac-12 go from here?  Just like the Big 12 a year ago, it isn't just losing its two premier programs, it's losing programs that are irreplaceable!  Whoever they add as replacements won't have anywhere near the same brand-name value.  And, no offense to Stanford, Oregon and Washington, but how do you sell a conference where those are the anchor institutions?

Besides, who could the Pac-12 possibly add as replacements?  The obvious answer is to have another raid of the Big 12.  But who from the Big 12?  A few rounds of realignment ago, when there was talk of a Pac-16, Oklahoma State was one of the schools mentioned.  And Kansas would be a no-brainer from a basketball perspective, but brings absolutely nothing to the table in football!

Or, how about one of the Big 12's newest members?  Would BYU consider leaving the Big 12 before even really joining and go to the Pac-12 instead?  If you think about it, the Pac-12 almost makes more sense for them.  They already have a rivalry with Utah and play in the MPSF with a lot of Pac-12 teams in sports like men's volleyball and indoor track & field.

So, I think BYU and Oklahoma State would make the most sense, but they certainly aren't the only options.  In fact, there are several Mountain West schools who I bet would be more than willing to answer the Pac-12's call.  Four in particular.  San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV and Colorado State.

Boise State is perhaps the most attractive competitively.  They've had a strong football program for a while and have become reasonably good at basketball.  But replacing Los Angeles with Boise, Idaho?!  That's where San Diego State has the advantage.  San Diego State would keep Southern California in the conference footprint and would add value in both sports.  (San Diego State is also a school that I think can become very good if it joins a Power 5 conference.)

UNLV, meanwhile, is an intriguing possibility.  It might seem like an out-of-the-box selection, seeing as their football team isn't good and they haven't made the NCAA Tournament in men's basketball since 2013.  But...Las Vegas is the only city they could add that's anywhere near as sexy as Los Angeles!  And the Pac-12 Men's Basketball Tournament is already at T-Mobile Arena!

Colorado State is probably the least likely of the bunch.  They'd be a good travel partner for Colorado, though.  That's probably not enough of a reason to make them a Pac-12 candidate, but we have no idea how this is all gonna play out, so it would be smart to keep their options open.  It's also a much more distinct possibility now than it was this morning that there could be some sort of Pac-12/Big 12 merger, especially if any more members of either conference get poached.

Now that all this has gone down, Kansas has apparently entered discussions with the Big East about joining in every sport but football, which would become independent.  Losing Kansas would be devastating to what remains of the Big 12.  And, should that happen, suddenly Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech might seriously start thinking about the Pac-12.

Once the Texas/Oklahoma and UCLA/USC moves take effect, we'll be in a situation where two Power 5 conferences have 16 members, with the ACC sitting at 15 if you include Notre Dame.  Their media rights are locked in for a while, so they're not looking to expand right away, but how long until they go for the 16th to stay even with the Big Ten and SEC?  And who will it be?  West Virginia?  Cincinnati?

The Big 12, meanwhile, will be back at 12 while the Pac-12 will once again be the Pac-10.  That's a combined 22 schools between them.  One or both of them would obviously need to expand.  But how many realistic expansion candidates are there?  Or, they could merge and bring all the remaining marquee programs from the two leagues together, which may actually be the best option (even if a 22-team conference would be a logistical nightmare!).

Just when we thought we might be getting a break from Power 5 realignment, UCLA, USC and the Big Ten throw a huge wrench into everything!  And what happens next will have a lasting impact on the long-term survival of both the Pac-12 and Big 12 (and, to a lesser extent, the Mountain West).  Let the dominoes fall!