Top-Heavy Men's Draw, Clear Women's Favorite

France evidently doesn't have the same type of COVID restrictions as Australia.  Because the unvaccinated Novak Djokovic is in Paris and ready to defend his title, as he tries once again to equal the all-time men's record for Grand Slam titles.  And, as we know, the man who currently holds that record--Rafael Nadal--has won just a few Coupes de Mousquetaires in his career.

Somehow Nadal is ranked No. 5, which meant one of the top four would be very unhappy when the draw came out and they saw his name as a potential quarterfinal opponent.  As fate turns out, that top-four seed was Djokovic.  They met in the semis last year and Djokovic won in four.  It was just the third French Open loss in Nadal's career.  Two of them are to Djokovic.

Although, I don't think the winner of that quarterfinal wins the tournament.  That's right!  For the first time in as long as I can remember, I'm not picking Nadal to win the French Open this year.  So, who am I picking?  The man who I see beating the Djokovic-Nadal winner in the semifinals.  Sixth-seeded Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz just turned 19.  He was born in 2003, the same year his coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero won the title here.  That was also two years before Nadal's first French Open win.  And how old was Nadal when he won in 2005?  I'm glad you asked.  He was 19!

See where I'm going here?  Carlos Alcaraz is poised to become the next big thing in men's tennis.  His Grand Slam breakthrough came at last year's US Open, where he made the quarterfinals (and Brad Gilbert started calling him "Escape from Alcaraz" after the excellent Clint Eastwood movie!).  And that was just the beginning.  Alcaraz went on to win the 2021 ATP Finals.  Then, at the French Open warm-up tournament in Madrid, he beat both Djokovic and Nadal back-to-back en route to the title.

In the Madrid final, Alcaraz beat Olympic gold medalist Alexander Zverev (the defending champion).  And, as fate would have it, the other quarterfinal on the top half of the men's draw could be Alcaraz-Zverev.  So, like I said, the first, second, third and fourth favorites are all in the top half of the draw!  Which means those quarters and semis will be incredible!

Even though the four guys who I think are most likely to win are all on the top half, that doesn't mean the bottom half of the draw is completely bare.  Stefanos Tsitsipas had a two-set lead on Djokovic in the final last year and probably should've won.  Meanwhile, the two men playing without a flag and who won't be welcome at Wimbledon--Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev could meet in another quarterfinal matchup.  I'm not sure what the point situation is, but Medvedev took over No. 1 briefly a few months ago and Djokovic has champion points to defend, so it's possible that he could regain the No. 1 ranking with a deep run.

The women's No. 1 ranking, meanwhile, simply changed hands rather oddly when Ash Barty abruptly announced her retirement.  That meant No. 2 Iga Swiatek automatically took over the top spot.  And Swiatek, the newly-minted No. 1, is the overwhelming favorite to lift the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen for the second time in three years.

Of course, last year's champion, Barbora Krejcikova may have something to say about that.  She was unseeded during her run to the title in 2021.  This year, she won't be sneaking up on anybody.  She's the No. 2 seed.  And, frankly, she's got a pretty tough draw that includes 2016 champion Garbine Muguruza and fourth-seeded Maria Sakkari, who had a match point on her in the semifinals last year.

Another player who I'm looking out for is sixth-seeded Ons Jabeur.  Like her fellow No. 6 seed Alcaraz, Jabeur won the title in Madrid, making her the first Arab woman to win a tour title.  She's the highest-ranked Arab player in either WTA or ATP history, in fact.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see her make some more history as the first Arab woman to reach a Grand Slam semifinal (or beyond).

Jabeur also has a chance to keep up a kind of unique stat.  Each of the last six French Open women's winners were first-time Grand Slam champions.  She's not the only one who can continue that streak, though.  Third-seeded Paola Badosa was a quarterfinalist last year (where she lost 8-6 in the third), and fourth-seeded Sakkari has never won a Grand Slam title, either.

They aren't the only ones.  Of the top eight seeds, only Swiatek and Krejcikova, the last two champions here, have won a Grand Slam title.  So, this could finally be the opportunity for Karolina Pliskova or Anett Kontaveit.  Then there's Aryna Sabalenka, who's facing the same Wimbledon ban as Medvedev and Rublev.  She's welcome to play in Paris, though.  Will she be inspired?

There's also an American who I think has a halfway decent chance.  Jessica Pegula made the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and lost to Jabeur in the Madrid final.  She's seeded 11th, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if she makes a run.  If she does go on a run, it's likely that Pegula will crack the top 10 for the first time in her career.

But, this is the French Open.  And, as that six-year streak has proven, it really is anybody's tournament on the women's side.  I have a feeling that streak is about to come to an end, though.  Iga Swiatek is the best player in the world, she's on a roll, and clay is her best surface.  If she doesn't win, it will be a massive surprise.