Wednesday, April 6, 2022

2022 Baseball Preview, Part VI

We made it!  There's just one more sleep 'til baseball season!  After three months of literally nothing happening, the season sure came quick after the end of the lockout and an abbreviated Spring Training.  And now it's time!  The season is here.

I guess that means I should finish my preview, then.  And I'm ending the preview with one of my favorite divisions.  I'll admit it.  I love the NL West!  Not just because the Dodgers are so good and so fun to watch and have been for years.  I really enjoy watching the Padres, too, and the Giants somehow won 107 games last season to end the Dodgers' streak of division titles.

And they're all loaded again this season!  The Dodgers have to be the World Series favorites, but San Diego and San Francisco are definitely contenders for wild card spots.  And the Rockies added Kris Bryant, so they'll be better.  Arizona, on the other hand, is on the same level as Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  It'll be a long season in the desert.

The division title will undoubtedly go through LA, though.  The Giants figured out a way to finish ahead of them last season, but you have to question if they really have lasting power.  Somehow, I doubt it.  So, really, the only thing standing between the Dodgers and the division title is their health.  But, even if they have an injury to a pitcher, their staff is deep enough to handle it.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Believe it or not, the Dodgers might be better than last season, when they won "only" 106 games.  And there's one big reason for that.  Freddie Freeman.  Who ever would've thought he'd leave the Braves?  But he and the Dodgers are a perfect match.  Of course, without the universal DH, I'm not sure they land Freeman...because they wouldn't have had the flexibility to move Max Muncy to DH otherwise.  I also absolutely love the A.J. Pollock trade, which frees up spots for both Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux (mark my words, NL Rookie of the Year) to be in the everyday lineup.

That was one reason for the Pollock trade.  The other was to get a closer.  Because their closer is now in Atlanta (so, effectively, it was a Freeman-for-Jansen trade).  So, they got Craig Kimbrel to replace him, which frees up Blake Treinen to keep pitching the eighth inning...or whenever else Dave Roberts decides to use him.  As for the rotation, they lost Max Scherzer.  So what?  They still have Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw (as if he was actually ever going anywhere).  Kershaw's never started an All*Star Game.  This year's All*Star Game is at Dodger Stadium.  See where I'm going here?
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Trea Turner-SS, Justin Turner-3B, Cody Bellinger-CF, Will Smith-C, Max Muncy-DH, Chris Taylor-LF, Gavin Lux-2B
Projected Rotation: Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Andrew Heaney
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 98-64

2. San Diego Padres: When the lockout ended and teams could talk to their own players again, the Padres found out that they'll be without their all-world shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr., for the first few months of the season.  They were also without him for a long stretch last year, which was actually a big reason why they missed the playoffs!  But now that the NL has the DH and they have the extra bat, that makes the loss of Tatis a little more bearable.

Another reason I'm high on the Padres is because of their pitching staff.  A pitching staff that only got stronger with the addition of Sean Manaea.  They have about eight starters now, which is a good thing since Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger are both coming off injuries.  If everybody's healthy, there won't be enough starts to go around.  Which is a good problem to have.  Especially since it would give them a valuable trade piece if they need to make any upgrades at the deadline (especially if they're within striking distance of the Dodgers).  They're also looking to unload Eric Hosmer's contract, so that's something else to keep an eye on as the Padres march towards the postseason.
Projected Lineup: Trent Grisham-CF, Jake Cronenworth-SS, Manny Machado-3B, Wil Myers-RF, Luke Voit-DH, Eric Hosmer-1B, Jurickson Profar-LF, Austin Nola-C, Ha-Seong Kim-2B
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger
Closer: Robert Suarez
Projected Record: 89-73

3. San Francisco Giants: How did the Giants win 107 games last season?  I'm still confused about that.  Which is one of the primary reasons why I don't think it'll happen again.  Everything went right for them in 2021, which I think had a lot to do with their success.  It was enough to land Gabe Kapler, who is not a good manager, NL Manager of the Year honors.  Frankly, after so many things went right last year, the law of averages dictates a return to the median this season.

Pitching was a big reason for their success last year, and it will have to be again for them to have any hopes of returning to the playoffs.  Tyler Webb was a revelation last season and, despite losing Kevin Gausman, they replaced him in the No. 2 spot with former White Sok Carlos Rodon.  Problem is, their rotation doesn't stack up with either the Dodgers or the Padres.  Neither does their hitting or defense.  That's why they did the platoon thing at so many positions in 2021.  Depth can be great.  And, in the Giants' case, they're gonna need it.
Projected Lineup: Tommy LaStella-2B, Brandon Belt-1B, Mike Yastrezmski-LF, Joc Pederson-RF, Austin Slater-CF, Wilmer Flores-3B, Darin Ruf-DH, Brandon Crawford-SS, Joey Bart-C
Projected Rotation: Tyler Webb, Carlos Rodon, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb 
Closer: Tyler Rogers
Projected Record: 83-79

4. Colorado Rockies: Raise your hand if you had Colorado as Kris Bryant's ultimate landing place?  After playing mostly third base for the Cubs, Bryant showed his versatility after his trade to the Giants, and he's actually projected to play mainly the outfield for the Rockies.  Bryant's obviously the biggest name to join the Rockies, but he's far from the only new face.  He's not even the only new face in the Colorado outfield.  They swung a trade with the Blue Jays to land Randal Grichuk, who hit nothing but home runs in Toronto and should love Coors Field.

As usual, they'll need to rely on their offense.  Because their pitching staff isn't nearly as good as the three California teams, and they, of course, play in Coors Field.  They also lost their best pitcher, Jon Gray, who's now in Texas.  So, pitching's once again gonna be their biggest problem.  I don't wanna say they'll score plenty of runs, but they'll score enough.  The pitchers will give up more than the offense scores, though.  Which obviously won't be enough in a division with a superpower and two other heavyweights.
Projected Lineup: Charlie Blackmon-RF, Brendan Rodgers-2B, Kris Bryant-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Randal Grichuk-CF, Ryan McMahon-3B, Elias Diaz-C, Connor Joe-DH, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber, Chad Kuhl
Closer: Daniel Bard
Projected Record: 74-88

5. Arizona Diamondbacks: It's the exact opposite in Arizona.  The Diamondbacks' pitching is the best part of their team, while the offense leaves much to be desired.  But, even though it's the strength of the team, I still wouldn't exactly call Arizona's rotation "good."  In fact, I'd be surprised if they don't hover near the 100-loss mark.  Because beyond Madison Bumgarner, who's been up-and-down since coming to the Diamondbacks, they don't really have much to write home about.

Offensively, they're just bad.  Ketel Marte is by far their best everyday player, and I highly doubt Marte ends the season in Arizona, since he'll be highly desired at the trade deadline.  Honestly, I don't know where their runs are gonna come from.  Christian Walker?  Josh Rojas maybe?  Or will Marte have to go for 30 homers and 100 RBIs this season?  Either way, it doesn't look like they'll be scoring many runs.  And they'll be giving up a lot.  That's a bad combo.
Projected Lineup: David Peralta-LF, Ketel Marte-2B, Christian Walker-1B, Josh Rojas-3B, Seth Beer-DH, Pavin Smith-RF, Daulton Varsho-CF, Carson Kelly-C, Geraldo Perdomo-SS
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Merrill Kelly, Zach Davies, Zac Gallen, Caleb Smith
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 61-101

So, there you have it.  Just to recap, my division winners in the AL are Red Sox (East), White Sox (Central) and Mariners (West), with the wild cards going to the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays.  In the NL, I've got the Mets (East), Cardinals (Central) and Dodgers (West) winning the divisions, and the Braves, Padres and Phillies earning the wild cards.

My World Series pick is White Sox vs. Dodgers.  And I see the Dodgers wining their second World Series title in three years.  They're the best team in baseball.  It's really just that simple.

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