Tuesday, January 4, 2022

A Problem of Their Own Making

As I hinted the other day, the NFL will have a very unique problem on its hands next season.  Christmas is on a Sunday this year, which means New Year's Day 2023 is, as well.  Until this season, that meant the regular season would end with the Sunday night game on New Year's Day.  But, because of the stupid 17th game, next season won't end until Jan. 8 and New Year's is just a regular week--which would typically include the final Monday night game.

Except...when New Year's Day is on a Sunday, that moves the New Year's Six bowl games to Monday.  Which means the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl, which air at 5:00 and 8:30.  Those start times are written into ESPN's contract with those two games.  And what network broadcasts Monday Night Football?  ESPN!

They obviously can't broadcast both the Sugar Bowl and Monday Night Football at the same time, but figuring out a way around this (completely avoidable) situation will require some expert-level finagling.  Finagling that I'm not sure is possible because of how jam-packed the schedules of both ABC and ESPN are that weekend.

Now, my level of sympathy for the NFL's little dilemma is completely nonexistent.  This situation was both foreseeable and preventable, but they decided to forge ahead with a 17th game anyway and they still have an aversion to Labor Day Weekend that I still don't entirely understand.  If they played on Labor Day Weekend or the schedule was still only 16 games in 17 weeks, this would be a non-issue.  Instead, they have a pretty significant problem that they brought entirely upon themselves.

Complicating matters is that next season's College Football Playoff semifinals are on New Year's Eve.  So, that takes what would otherwise be the simplest solution out of play.  They can't just move the Monday night game to Saturday because ESPN will already be broadcasting the two CFP games.  What to do instead then?  I've got a few ideas...

Solution 1: Move the Monday night game to ABC
While this seems like the most obvious solution and the easiest way to solve the problem, it would actually put ESPN in a terrible position.  They'd be going against themselves for (primarily the same) viewers, which is just dumb.  And it would also probably make both of their biggest partners--the NFL and the CFP--unhappy.  So, Monday Night Football vs. the Sugar Bowl doesn't seem like the best option.

Solution 2: Play on Saturday night on ABC
This one wouldn't work for a couple reasons.  First, see above, except instead of the Sugar Bowl it would be one of the semifinal games.  Perhaps more significantly, they can't move it to ABC either because of New Year's Rockin' Eve.  NBC would be willing to bump their New Year's Eve show for a Sunday night game (and has before), but New Year's Rockin' Eve is a different animal.  Even the NFL can't (and won't) compete with that.  (In fact, ABC's contract with New Year's Rockin' Eve runs until 2024, so even if they wanted to play on ABC on New Year's Eve, they couldn't.)

Solution 3: Play on Friday night
Next season's Orange Bowl is currently scheduled to be played on Friday night, Dec. 30.  They could easily move it to Thursday night, though, which would free up Friday for the "Monday" night game.  The NFL avoids Thursday night games in the second-to-last week so nobody has extra rest heading into the last game, but they may be willing to do Friday night.  The only question is how flexible the Orange Bowl's date is.

Solution 4: No Week 17 Monday night game
Playing on Tuesday wouldn't work since that would give somebody a short week heading into the last game, so my last proposal is simply not having a Monday night game in Week 17.  ESPN/ABC could compensate for the week off by playing a doubleheader one week or getting one of the Saturday night games that's usually on NFL Network (or a Friday night game on Dec. 23).  I'm not sure how that would work with the guarantees in the new TV contract, but it seems like it would be the one that would work best logistically.

Of those four options, Solutions 3 and 4 would seem to be the ones that would work best.  If they're able to move the Orange Bowl to Thursday night, I'd say Solution 3 is the way to go.  Otherwise, Solution 1 beats Solution 4.  Neither one is ideal, but neither is the alternative.

While having a Monday night doubleheader in Week 1 would make it so that skipping Week 17 is possible, that would leave ESPN without a game in a late-season week that's critical for playoff positioning (this after being given Monday night flex scheduling in the new contract).  Beyond that, though, since there's no Monday night game in Week 18, they'd go two straight Mondays without an NFL game before the Monday night Wild Card Game.  Those would be filled by the Sugar Bowl and CFP National Championship Game, so it's not like they wouldn't be showing football, but the point remains. 

In fact, this issue isn't just limited to the 2022 NFL season.  They'll have the same problem in 2023, when Christmas and New Year's are on Mondays (and, thus, the Sugar Bowl is on Monday).  And it's something that will happen again the next time those holidays fall on either Sunday or Monday.  (Although, it should be noted, a Saturday night game on Dec. 30 IS possible, unlike a Saturday night game on New Year's Eve.)

So, yeah, they're gonna have to come up with a solution that works for everybody moving forward.  I'm not sure what that solution is, though.  Because not playing Monday Night Football on Monday night in Week 17 of an 18-week season doesn't seem ideal!  Especially with ESPN/ABC getting the new perks of flexible scheduling and being in the Super Bowl rotation in the new TV contract.

Is this a major problem in the grand scheme of things?  Of course not!  But it's another thing that the NFL never had to worry about before that has suddenly become an issue because they added a week to the season (and still refuse to play on Labor Day weekend, which would resolve it right then and there).  Yet another reason to hate Week 18!

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