If you'd asked anybody after the 2020 World Series who would be the AL Rookie of the Year this season, their answer would've been unanimous. Randy Arozarena. Of course, that opinion was based entirely on his ridiculous 2020 postseason, which included ALCS MVP honors. What made it even crazier was that it all happened last October and he was still considered a rookie this year.
What's even crazier than that, though, is the fact that Arozarena might not've even been the best rookie on the Rays in 2021. That would be Wander Franco. Tampa Bay traded Willy Adames to Milwaukee in May so that they could make room for Franco to play every day at shortstop. That sure worked out, didn't it? Franco could very well be the best player on the Rays, and he's just 20.
The last time two teammates were AL Rookie of the Year finalists in the same season was 2018, when Yankees Miguel Andujar (who should've won) and Gleyber Torres finished 2-3 behind some Japanese guy who plays for the Angels. I'm not sure if there's ever been teammates who went 1-2, but we'll probably find that out tomorrow when they make the announcement. Because it seems likely the Rays did just that.
So which Ray is the AL Rookie of the Year? I think it's really a matter of preference. Because the case could really be made for either one. Arozarena was on the roster all season, played 141 games, scored 94 runs, and became just the third rookie ever to have 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. And he was named the team's Outstanding Rookie by the Tampa Bay chapter of the BBWAA, which may give him the slight advantage (at least at home).
Franco's 70 games were pretty incredible, though. He hit .288 and had 30 extra-base hits. He also had a crazy 43-game on-base streak from July 25-Sept. 29. And, it's again worth noting, that Franco is 20 years old! The fact that he wasn't called up until June could be the deciding factor in Arozarena's favor, but, if you extend Franco's numbers over a 162-game average, they blow Arozarena's out of the water.
Luis Garcia of the Astros is the third finalist, which is code for "third-place finisher." Frankly, I'm not sure how he finished third (more on that in a second). Because he wouldn't have been my choice. I didn't know much about Garcia until the playoffs, when he had a good start and a bad start in both the ALCS and World Series. Voting was conducted before the playoffs, though, which is why I don't quite understand how Garcia finished higher than some of the other candidates.
Baltimore's Ryan Mountcastle, for example, had 33 home runs and 89 RBIs for a team that wasn't very good. Then there's Adolis Garcia, who hit 31 homers and had 90 RBIs for a Rangers team that was nearly as bad. He also played solid defense at all three outfield positions. Sure, he struck out too much, but does that disqualify him? Certainly not!
My personal preference is Franco, but I think Arozarena is the likely winner. The writers remembered his 2020 postseason, so he came in as the favorite, and he did nothing to knock himself below any of the other candidates. As for my ballot, it would go: 1. Franco, 2. Arozarena, 3. Mountcastle.
Over in the National League, there was no clear-cut favorite heading into the season. And, frankly, things seem a lot more wide open there, too. It's down to Jonathan India of the Reds, Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals, and Trevor Rogers of the Marlins.
India's got to be considered the slight favorite. He was Cincinnati's leadoff hitter for most of the season and led all rookies with 150 games played. India had 21 homers and 34 doubles, scored 98 runs, stole 12 bases and got hit by a pitch a National League-high 23 times. He also drew 71 walks and drove in 69 runs. Pretty much all of those numbers were NL rookie highs.
Dylan Carlson, meanwhile, is the latest in a long line of random Cardinals rookies outfielders who end up having really great seasons. Carlson played 149 games while getting starts pretty much everywhere (both in the field and in the lineup). He ended up with 18 homers, 31 doubles, 65 RBIs and 79 runs scored, which actually ranks him behind India in all those categories. The biggest thing working in his favor, however, is the fact that St. Louis made the playoffs while the Reds and Marlins didn't.
Speaking of the Marlins, Rogers is looking to be Miami's first Rookie of the Year since the late Jose Fernandez in 2013. And he put together a rookie year that was nearly as impressive as Fernandez's. He was Rookie of the Month in both April and May and made the All-Star team. Rogers allowed three runs or less in his first 21 starts and finished with a 2.64 ERA, numbers that would be crazy for any pitcher, let alone a rookie!
While the three finalists deserve to be so, let's not forget that like Arozarena, the Braves' Ian Anderson was also still technically a rookie in 2021. When he and Garcia started against each other in Game 3 of the World Series, it was the first time since 2006 that two rookie starting pitchers squared off in the World Series. And, for the record, Anderson, who was brilliant in that World Series start, was 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 24 starts for the World Champion Braves.
Other NL Rookie of the Year honorable mentions go to Marlins second baseman Jazz Chisholm and Cubs third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Chisholm had some ups and downs, but he finished with a very impressive 23 stolen bases in 31 attempts while also hitting 18 home runs. Wisdom, meanwhile, made quite a splash with all his home runs. He was one of the reasons the Cubs traded all of their stars at the deadline, and Wisdom finished with 28 bombs in 106 games.
All of them pale in comparison to the three finalists, though, and this figures to be a very competitive three-horse race. I literally have no idea who's gonna win! In fact, I think NL Rookie of the Year might be the closest vote of any of the eight awards that will be handed out this week.
Personally, I'm leaning towards India. I'd be more inclined to go with Rogers if he had a winning record, but I can't overlook the fact that he was 7-8 (yes, I know, don't give me the "wins don't matter" lecture!). So, my vote would go: 1. India, 2. Rogers, 3. Carlson.
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