Now It's the American's Turn

I'm glad BYU finally listened to me and joined the Big 12!  I've only been saying it should happen for how many years?!  I'm also happy for Cincinnati, which finally got into a Power 5 league.  And for Houston being reunited with its former Southwest Conference rivals.  Central Florida also made sense when you consider the size of the Orlando media market and the school's enrollment and endowment.

So, I think the Big 12 really hit a home run with its four additions.  Do they make up for the loss of marquee programs Texas and Oklahoma?  Of course not!  But those were far and away the four best programs they could've added, and I think they'll all fit in pretty well.  Most importantly, they keep the Big 12 relevant in football while also making it even more of a beast in basketball.

Big 12 basketball was already arguably the best in the country.  Baylor's the defending National Champions, Houston made the Final Four, and Kansas is Kansas.  Then you throw in another national program in Cincinnati, as well as a BYU team that's been a perennial NCAA Tournament participant.  It'll obviously be a few years until they join the league, but it's still fun to think about.

Now, with the Big 12's status resolved, that means our next round of changes will likely come in the American Athletic Conference, which lost its two biggest overall programs, as well as its best football team.  And there should be no shortage of interested candidates for the conference that views itself as "Power 6."  AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco has promised they won't "poach" any schools from other conferences, but who we kidding?  In order for a school to join the AAC, they have to leave their current league!

What fascinates me about a potential AAC expansion is how many teams they'll shoot for.  UConn returning to the Big East left them with 11 members, so they haven't had divisions in football for the last two seasons.  That number will drop to eight with Houston, Central Florida and Cincinnati leaving.  Eight's obviously too small a number, so you know they'll have to expand.  The question is whether it'll be two or four teams that will be added.  My guess is four to get them back to 12.

An interesting thing about the American, though, is that, while it's an all-sports conference, only 10 of the 11 members have football teams.  Wichita State is in the American for every sport except football, while Navy is in the conference for football only.  So, does the American only look to add football schools, or do they seek another Wichita State/Navy-type combination?  Or a mixture of the two?

Of course, there's only one school that can provide the football half of that combo--Army.  Army is independent in football, already plays Navy in the final game every season, and would be a natural fit for the American should they want to do it.  And they're obviously a brand name, too, which certainly helps!

Who would Army's basketball partner be, though?  I've heard rumblings about VCU, which would be a logical choice for the American.  From a basketball perspective, VCU is very similar to Wichita State.  It would be a good program for the conference to add, and the conference would be a good fit for the school.  It would only work if Army joined the American in football, though.  Because otherwise, I don't see them adding a basketball-only school.

For the sake of argument, I'm gonna assume the Army/VCU combo is a go.  Both Army football and VCU basketball make a lot of sense for the American.  But what about the other three additions?  That's where it gets interesting.  Because there will definitely be more than three schools that are interested.

One school that I think is a lock to join the American is UAB.  UAB currently plays in Conference USA, which is where new members of the American typically come from.  And I think they're a no-brainer for a few reasons.  First, they have an endowment of half a billion!  Second, the Birmingham market is largely untapped (even though it's full of mostly Alabama and Auburn fans).  Finally, they've been fairly successful in both basketball and football, and both teams play in good-sized venues.  So they fit in with the current American members very well.

After UAB and Army/VCU is where it gets interesting.  I've heard schools like Boise State and San Diego State mentioned, but would the American really be considered an upgrade over the Mountain West for them?  Not really.  So I don't see why they would find any value in leaving the Mountain West for the American.  I do see other Conference USA and Atlantic 10 teams making a push for those two remaining expansion spots in the American, though.

It's my understanding that UMass really wants in.  UMass has been looking for a football conference ever since leaving the MAC in 2015.  And you know they'd love to revive their rivalry with Temple!  But do you gain anything by adding UMass?  Certainly not in football!  Their basketball team has been down in recent years, too.  Plus, UMass is basically a replacement for UConn.  Which could be either a good or bad thing depending on how you look at it.

Old Dominion is another interesting possibility.  One that may seem completely out of left field.  However, Old Dominion is already an associate member of the AAC in both women's rowing and women's lacrosse, so it's not that big a stretch to see them bringing all of their teams over.  And they're in Norfolk, which would make them a natural travel partner for VCU (which doesn't matter so much in football, but is important for the Olympic sports).

Or, how about Charlotte?  Charlotte's football program is relatively young, but made its first bowl appearance in 2019 and has a win over Duke this season.  And being in the American would only make them better.  Plus, Charlotte is a major city with an airport that serves as a hub for a lot of airlines, meaning it's a very easy place for everybody to get to.  That's something any conference considering expansion has to like.

Finally, there's Florida International.  I'd consider this one to be almost as much of a guarantee as UAB.  Central Florida is in Orlando.  Florida International is in Miami.  So you're trading one major city for another.  And their school size is very similar.  Perhaps most importantly, they've got a good football team, which might be the single biggest factor working in their favor.  The American is losing its three best football programs and needs quality teams to replace them.  FIU certainly fits that bill.

If the American only adds two schools to get to 10, I'd say it's UAB and Florida International.  But I have a feeling they'll want to get back to 12 and go after four schools.  Which means the Army/VCU combo and either Old Dominion or Charlotte would also get the invite.  If I had to guess, I'd say Charlotte.