I read an article this afternoon that sums up these Olympics in a nutshell. It told a story of two years ago, when an enthusiastic group of children were on a soccer field holding up signs at the "One Year to Go" celebration. Virtually all of Japan was excited, as their country was finally going to host the Olympics again.
One year became two, and that joy disappeared. The Japanese people's near-universal excitement has turned to anything but. A mixture of fear, resentment and anger are the main feelings, as more than a few people have questioned the wisdom of holding these Olympics altogether. And, sure enough, COVID has found its way to the Olympic Village, forcing athletes who are already in Tokyo to drop out. (It's taken out a good portion of the Czech team.) I can only imagine how heartbroken they are, especially after already having to wait an extra year for this opportunity!
It's also been heartbreaking to watch those preliminary softball and soccer games played in empty stadiums. Under normal circumstances, the stands would've been packed with fans, cheering raucously as Japan won its opening game of each tournament. Instead...silence. Certainly not the celebration the Olympics are supposed to be.
But, if you ask any athlete whether they'd rather have this--no fans, no family, all these precautions--or no Olympics at all, I'm pretty sure you all know what they'd say. They'll do whatever it takes. Because they've been waiting five long years since Rio, and the day is finally here! The Olympics, at long last, are starting!
That has to be a huge sigh of relief for the IOC and Tokyo's organizers. After all that work, an extra year, having to completely change every plan, dealing with problems that were no fault of their own (some of the scandals are of their own making, but most of these issues were not), it's finally time to see the fruits of their labor. This isn't exactly the Olympics that Japan envisioned. But this is the hand they've been dealt. And if anybody's prepared to handle it and deliver an Olympics that's still memorable, it's the Japanese.
And, after having heard nothing but negative story after negative story about these Olympics ever since the word "COVID" entered our vocabularies, here's hoping that once the cauldron is ignited and competition begins, the focus shifts back where it belongs...on the athletes! Because none of this has anything to do with them! It wasn't their call whether the Olympics would be held. And they're the ones who have to compete under less-than-ideal conditions!
Whether you agree with holding an Olympics during a pandemic or not, they're happening. And, frankly, the athletes deserve their moment. It was taken away from them last year, and they're sacrificing so much just to participate. But they were all willing to do it. Because it's the Olympics. And, for many of them, the Olympics are a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
For so many, that once-in-a-lifetime opportunity doesn't even include the Opening Ceremony. It's not because they don't want to go. It's because they're not allowed to go. The protocols that everybody has to follow are very strict, and they're very specific about when you can enter Japan. So, if you're not competing until the second week of the Games, you have to watch the Opening Ceremony on TV like the rest of us (even some athletes who are already in Tokyo won't be able to participate if they haven't finished their mandatory quarantine yet).
With all of these outside factors and everything everybody has been through over the last 18 months, this is perhaps the hardest Olympics in recent memory to make any sort of predictions. Will Japan still have the home field advantage when there aren't any fans there? How will not having fans and the excitement they bring affect performances? Will the silence make athletes think about the Olympic pressure even more?
We also have no idea what type of an impact COVID will have. Athletes will be tested daily, but a positive could knock out an athlete or an entire team (as it almost did for South Africa men's soccer). And, if a big name can't go because of a positive COVID test, that changes the entire medal picture in that athlete's event(s). So, the best we can do is hope that the preventative measures in the playbooks are effective and no competitions are cancelled.
Speaking of the competition, this is the biggest Olympics ever. There are 11,000 athletes and 339 events, which are both by far the largest number in Olympic history! That means there are over 1,000 medals at stake in sports from the traditional (track & field, swimming, gymnastics) to the new (skateboarding, sport climbing, 3x3 basketball). The 613-athlete strong U.S. team isn't just the second-largest American delegation ever, it's the most athletes any country has ever sent to an Olympics on foreign soil!
They should bring plenty of hardware home with them, too. Led by incredibly strong swimming and track & field teams, the U.S. should take its customary place at the top of the medals table. The number should be well over 100, and the total number of gold medals should hover somewhere around 50.
Even without the crowds, Japan should enjoy the customary home team bump. And not just because they're strong in the sports that were added just for these Olympics (which were obviously chosen intentionally). The most medals Japan has ever won was 41 in Rio. Their all-time high for gold medals is 16, set the first time Tokyo hosted in 1964 and tied in Athens 2004. Both of those numbers may be in jeopardy. In fact, I'd be surprised if Japan doesn't finish in the top five in the overall medal count.
Expect to see all of the usual suspects filling out the rest of the top 10. China may get a slight boost from being so close to home and not having to make the time zone adjustment like everybody else, but still shouldn't challenge the U.S. for the top spot. The country without a name, meanwhile, should still finish with a solid haul despite having a smaller team than usual as a result of the sanctions.
Australia's only won eight gold medals at each of the last two Olympics, but they have a very strong swim team this year (especially on the women's side), so that number should be higher in Tokyo. After becoming the rare country to actually increase its medal haul the Olympics after hosting, Great Britain likely won't win quite as many this time around. It should still be enough to put them in the top five, though.
Here's my complete top 10, which I fully admit will probably be way off. (I've got 82 countries winning medals.) Not that it matters though. The Olympics are finally here! That's the most important thing.
- United States 50-28-40 118
- China 32-21-19 72
- ROC 25-23-17 65
- Japan 22-19-23 64
- Great Britain 16-18-21 55
- Australia 15-19-13 47
- France 12-11-23 46
- Italy 9-15-17 42
- Germany 12-14-17 41
- Netherlands 11-14-12 37
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