Baseball 2021 (AL West)

Wrapping up the American League portion of the baseball preview with the AL West.  The Astros have dominated the division of late, but doesn't enter the season as the favorite for the first time in years.  Of course, they finished 29-31 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but (thanks to the playoff format) still managed to get to Game 7 of the ALCS, so it would be unwise to completely count them out.

Nevertheless, both of the California teams appear to be just as strong as Houston, if not stronger.  We, of course, say this every year about the Angels, who are at least consistent.  It's a familiar script.  They have high expectations and results that don't match, and Mike Trout is once again left looking for the first playoff win of his career.

Winning playoff games isn't a problem for the A's.  Winning playoff series is.  Oakland is like Tampa Bay in many ways (and not just because they play in the two worst stadiums in baseball!).  They have a low payroll, yet always somehow manage to not only be competitive, but to make the playoffs.  I think that'll happen again.  I'm predicting Oakland to win its second straight division title.

Whoever finishes second between the Astros and Angels has a very good chance at appearing in the Wild Card Game, where they'll be fighting with the White Sox and Blue Jays.  The fact that this division figures to be close will probably help both of them in the wild card race.  It'll probably take 90 wins or more to get one of the wild cards, which is roughly the same amount it'll take to win the AL West.

1. Oakland Athletics: They lost their MVP-candidate shortstop who was good for 160 games played a year.  They lost their lights out closer.  So why do I like Oakland to win the division title over Astro and Angel teams that have much more star power?  Easy!  It's because of who they do have back.  The Matts (Chapman and Olson), Mark Canha, and, most importantly, that pitching staff.  That and the All-Star replacements for Marcus Seimen and Liam Hendriks.  (I also feel the need here to express my disappointment that Khris Davis, Mr. .247 himself, is no longer their DH.)

As long as they play in that gigantic stadium, it will always depending on the pitching.  They know that.  Which is why they invest in it.  And Oakland has a solid rotation that doesn't get enough credit.  Their bullpen typically goes unnoticed, too, but they've got some proven veterans in Sergio Romo and Yusmeiro Petit serving as set-up guys for new closer Trevor Rosenthal.  Don't forget, this team won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019, then went 36-24 (the equivalent of another 97-win season) last year.  They know how to get it done during the regular season, and there's no reason to think they won't again this year.
Projected Lineup: Chad Pinder-2B, Elvis Andrus-SS, Matt Chapman-3B, Matt Olson-1B, Mark Canha-LF, Stephen Piscotty-RF, Mitch Moreland-DH, Sean Murphy-C, Ramon Laureano-CF
Projected Rotation: Mike Fiers, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, Chris Bassitt
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
Projected Record: 91-71

2. Houston Astros: We all knew it was coming, and the breakup of the Astros has officially started with George Springer leaving for the Blue Jays.  He won't be the last.  I firmly believe Carlos Correa will leave as a free agent after this season.  But...the Astros have enough of their main guys that are still around, so a fifth straight trip to the ALCS might not actually be that crazy a thought.  You can't ignore the fact that Houston was only 29-31 during the regular season last year, though.

It was a great run in October.  There's no denying that.  But the regular season exposed plenty of holes that will even become more obvious over a span of six months.  During their World Series runs, Houston used outstanding pitching (and a garbage can) to complement that potent offense.  The Astros' pitching simply isn't as good anymore.  Justin Verlander had TJ, so that moves Zack Greinke into the spotlight.  He's been an ace before, but one of the reasons he went to Houston was because he wouldn't have to be there.  Whether it's by design or necessity, they've become reliant on the bullpen.  And you can't expect the bullpen to throw so many innings and be effective all season.  Especially when the bullpen is good, but not great.  I'd imagine that if they're in the hunt at the deadline, the Astros will be in the market for a starter.
Projected Lineup: Kyle Tucker-RF, Alex Bregman-3B, Jose Altuve-2B, Michael Brantley-LF, Carlos Correa-SS, Yordan Alvarez-DH, Yuli Gurriel-1B, Martin Maldonado-C, Myles Straw-CF
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke, Jake Odorizzi, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr.
Closer: Ryan Pressly
Projected Record: 88-74

3. Los Angeles Angels: Will this be the year when the Angels finally break through and take all their high-priced superstars to the playoffs?  First things first, let's worry about them finishing .500, which hasn't happened since 2015!  The playoff thing you can kind of understand since they play in the same division as the Astros, but the .500 thing really is remarkable.  Because, with all their talent, there's no reason the Angels shouldn't have a winning record!  So, I'm setting that as Goal No. 1, with a tight AL West race potentially leading to the other.

Pitching has been their issue during this run.  Sure, they've failed to get adequate lineup protection for Mike Trout until recently, but the Angels' real problem is the fact that they don't have a top-flight starting pitcher.  They haven't since Jered Weaver was in his prime.  And, sorry, but I'm not sold on the whole Shohei Ohtani phenomenon (which I thought had dissipated by now).  He'll be back to his dual role this season after being limited to just hitting last year, but I predict it only lasts until the All-Star Break (if not sooner).  Once again, they won't be able to count on the pitching to win them enough games.  They'll have to outslug their opponents, which this lineup is completely capable of doing.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Jose Iglesias-SS, Mike Trout-CF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Shohei Ohtani-DH, Justin Upton-LF, Jared Walsh-1B, David Fletcher-2B, Max Stassi-C
Projected Rotation: Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Griffin Canning, Alex Cobb, Shohei Ohtani
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 86-76

4. Texas Rangers: Globe Life Field's inaugural season was certainly an interesting one, wasn't it?  It saw a World Series champion crowed in its first season...after being used as a neutral site.  The first game fans were allowed to attend at the stadium were playoff games.  Neither of those milestones involved the team that actually plays its home games at Globe Life Field.  Although, that was also the only way those things were going to happen at Globe Life Field.  Because the Rangers are not a very good baseball team.

Texas looks to be entering an odd kind of rebuilding phase.  Most of their notable names are gone.  They've still got some guys who can mash, most notably Joey Gallo, the new face of the franchise with Elvis Andrus now in Oakland.  But not enough of them.  In fact, most of their roster seems to be made up of other team's castoffs.  And their pitching is truly atrocious!  The new stadium is air conditioned and has a retractable roof, so you won't be able to blame all the home runs they allow entirely on the midsummer Texas humidity.  But they're gonna give up many more runs than they score.  You don't need me to tell you that isn't a recipe for success.
Projected Lineup: Leody Tavares-CF, Nick Solak-2B, Joey Gallo-RF, Willie Calhoun-DH, David Dahl-LF, Nate Lowe-1B, Jose Trevino-C, Isiah Kiner-Falefa-SS, Charlie Culberson-3B
Projected Rotation: Kyle Gibson, Kohei Arihara, Mike Folytnewicz, Dane Dunning, Kyle Cody
Closer: Jordan Lyles
Projected Record: 76-86

5. Seattle Mariners: At least the Mariners are no longer pretending they're trying.  The longest playoff drought in professional sports will reach 20 consecutive seasons.  (I'm not saying they're at all related, but 2002, the year the Mariners' streak started, is when the Seahawks switched to the NFC and got good.)  There isn't really much to say about the Mariners.  They seem more likely to flirt with 100 losses than a playoff berth.  Which is better than their situation over the past few seasons, when they weren't good enough to truly be in contention but also weren't bad enough to break it all down at the trade deadline.

This year, they might actually be bad enough for that to happen.  And they do have some valuable pieces.  Kyle Seager is much more than just Cory's brother.  He's a legit All-Star third baseman in his own right, and he's been the Mariners' best player for a few years now.  Kyle Lewis, meanwhile, won the Rookie of the Year last season.  Those are two very good guys to build around.  They need a lot more, though.  As for the rotation, I'm going to make a prediction: by returning to Seattle, James Paxton will turn back into the same pitcher he was during his first tour of duty with the Mariners.  Not the guy who was injured pretty much the entire time he was on the Yankees.
Projected Lineup: Kyle Lewis-CF, J.P. Crawford-SS, Kyle Seager-3B, Mitch Haniger-RF, Evan White-1B, Ty France-DH, Tom Murphy-C, Dylan Moore-2B, Jake Fraley-LF
Projected Rotation: Marco Gonzalez, James Paxton, Justus Sheffield, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen
Closer: Rafael Montero
Projected Record: 67-95