Australia Three Weeks Later

It wasn't too long ago that the Australian Open men's final was always the same day as the Super Bowl.  Then the NFL moved the Super Bowl back a week, meaning the Australian Open would start on Conference Championship Sunday.  Then the Australian Open moved a week earlier, putting the final on the off week.  But this year, thanks to a delayed start, we've got something brand new--the Aussie Open starting on Super Bowl Sunday!

Australia has actually handled the pandemic incredibly well, so at first I was surprised they decided to push back the tournament three weeks.  Then when they explained why it made sense.  One of the reasons Australia has handled the virus is because of strict quarantine measures, and a three-week delay would allow the players to quarantine before the tournament without having to arrive during the holidays.  They even moved the qualifying tournaments to Dubai and Doha, but kept them at the same time, so that those players could quarantine, too.

For the most part, it worked.  Some players tested positive and had to withdraw, and there was an infected person on one of the flights to Melbourne, but everybody made it to Australia and was able to successfully quarantine.  There was a slight hiccup earlier this week when the warm-up tournaments had to be halted for a day, but now we're good to go for the first Grand Slam tournament of 2021.

I wonder what type of an effect the delay will have, though.  This is vastly different than moving the French Open from May to October.  Instead of beautiful Spring days, it was cold and dark the entire time (which did nothing to halt Rafa's annual run to the title).  A two-week delay, on the other hand, isn't much.  It could still make a difference, though.  Late January in Australia is the equivalent of late July in the Northern Hemisphere, so ridiculous heat is usually a factor during the first week of the tournament.  But now they're playing in what's essentially early August.  The average temperature is pretty much the same, but there's usually less rain, so it may not be as humid.  Will that actually matter?

One thing that we know will actually matter is something that will be a storyline as long as a certain Spaniard is in the tournament.  With his most recent annual victory in Paris, Nadal tied Roger Federer's all-time record of 20 Grand Slam titles.  He can obviously break it here (and, if he doesn't, he'll instead get the chance to do it by winning his 35th consecutive French Open).

Nadal has one big thing going against him in his quest for No. 21, though.  And that's the world's No. 1 player, who has made Melbourne Park his personal playground in much the same way Rafa has at Roland Garros.  Djokovic is looking for his third straight Australian Open title, ninth overall, and eighth in 11 years.  So, needless to say, he's the favorite.

After his US Open DQ last year, some people wondered how Djokovic would bounce back.  He bounced back fine, making it to the final at the French Open.  Now enough time has passed, and there's been another Grand Slam since then, so I don't think Djokovic's mental state will be an issue.  If anything, he's more focused.

Last year, Dominic Thiem gave Djokovic all he could handle in the final.  Thiem then went on to win his first Grand Slam title at the US Open.  So, I'd say that he might be the second favorite.  Unfortunately, he and Djokovic are on the same side of the draw, which means a rematch of last year's final would be in the semis.  And, should they meet, the winner of that semi will be a clear favorite in the final.

The circumstances are completely different and there will be a limited number of fans, but Thiem's US Open win is important for another reason.  He knows what it takes to win a Grand Slam played in a bubble.  As does Naomi Osaka, who followed up her previous US Open title by winning the Australian Open.  Can she do it again?

Osaka is just one of the many favorites on the women's side.  While men's tennis has been somewhat predictable over the past 15 years thanks to the Big Four, women's tennis has been anything but.  Case in point, defending champion Sofia Kenin, who had never before been past the fourth round at a Slam before winning last year.  She also made the final of the French Open in 2020, losing to Iga Swiatek, who dominated the tournament despite being ranked No. 54 at the time.

So, needless to say, the women's tournament is much more wide open than the men's.  Women's No. 1 Ashleigh Barty is Australian.  She reached the semifinals last year, then missed the other two Grand Slams because she opted to stay in Australia rather than travel during the pandemic.  Which means it's been more than a year since her last Grand Slam match.  And let's not forget the pressure she's under to become the first homegrown Aussie Open women's champion since 1978.

Barty and Kenin are on the same side of the draw as two women looking for their first Grand Slam title--Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina.  Those two have had very similar Grand Slam results.  They either beat top players and make a deep run or lose early to someone they shouldn't.  But you can't discount them completely.  Because they definitely have the talent.

Then there's Serena Williams, who's still looking for Grand Slam title No. 24 to tie the all-time record.  As crazy as it sounds, it's been four years since she won here while pregnant.  That four-year stretch without a Grand Slam title is by far the longest of her career, but to think Serena isn't still capable, even at age 39, would be foolish.  It's true that she can't overpower you the way she did in her prime.  And it's also true that she needs things to break her way.  But she still made the semifinals at the US Open last year and has won here seven times.  She could easily do it again.

Serena can't be considered a "favorite," though.  Especially when her path to the final includes a possible semifinal matchup with Osaka.  She's on the list of contenders would could win the title.  But is it likely?  I don't think so.  A good run for her could be the quarterfinals or semifinals.

Just like at the US Open, the winner will likely be the player who best handles the bubble conditions.  Which is why you've gotta like Osaka.  I'm also keeping my eye on Vika Azarenka, too.  Don't forget, both of Vika's Grand Slam titles came in Australia.  Her draw seems way too tough for her go all the way this time, though.  I'll say Svitolina makes the final from that side, losing to Osaka.

On the men's side, it's safe to stick with the chalk.  The top players are just a cut above the rest of the field.  My one "upset" prediction is Alex de Minaur over Nadal in the round of 16, which allows either Daniil Medvedev or Stefanos Tsitsipas to lose to Djokovic in the final.  And, with the win, Nole gets to 18 Grand Slam titles for his career.