Forgive me for sounding like a broken record, but the Tokyo Olympics have NOT been cancelled, nor are there plans for them to be! The IOC and Japanese government have both (re)confirmed their commitment to staging the delayed Games and are moving forward as if they'll happen as (re)scheduled, albeit with a number of COVID countermeasures in place. As they should.
While that should seem obvious, they once again had to make that position clear in response to an article in The Times of London that quoted an unnamed government official who said that the decision (about cancellation) had "already been made" but nobody wanted to be the first one to say it. Japan was trying to find a way to bow out gracefully, it argued, while also positioning itself to host in 2032.
The IOC, Tokyo organizers and Japanese government were all quick to deny the report. Perhaps IOC President Thomas Bach put it best: "We're in the business of holding Olympic Games, not cancelling them." Bach also reiterated that their is no Plan B. The IOC is, of course, monitoring the situation, but is fully confident the Olympics will begin on July 23...with or without spectators.
This, of course, all sounds similar to last year, when the IOC remained steadfast even as the inevitability of a postponement became more and more obvious. They didn't postpone the Games until March, after the torch relay had already started and after a number of countries had already gone into full lockdowns that prevented athletes from training. That uncertainty is something no one wants to see repeated.
That's exactly what articles like the one in The Times are creating though! I even saw one that suggested the IOC should "do the right thing" and cancel the Games now. How that's the right thing, I don't know. Just like I don't know how that would actually help any of the athletes. Sure, it would mean they can stop training for an Olympics that weren't going to happen anyway. But it would also give them no incentive to keep training, having again taken away a goal that they've spent a lifetime chasing. And for what?
It's also incredibly premature to make any sort of announcement about the state of the Tokyo Games. We have no idea what things will be like six months from now! Coronavirus cases may be getting worse in Japan now, but there's no guarantee the situation won't improve. In fact, with vaccines developed and starting to be distributed around the world, there's no reason to think the Olympics won't take place.
And comparisons to last year don't really make much sense, either. January 2021 is vastly different than March 2020. Back then, we knew very little and shut everything down as a result. As we learned more, restrictions became eased. Now, 10 months later, we not only know significantly more about the virus, we also know what we can and can't do safely. There are also multiple vaccines and signs that we'll be able to return to our normal lives.
Sports were among the first things that were shut down last March. It took months for sports to come back, but they all did. That should also be an encouraging sign. Professional and international sports organizations all found ways to safely return to play, even while the pandemic is still raging. Rigorous health and safety measures were put into place, and, for the most part, they worked. There will be similar measures in Tokyo. There's no reason to think they won't work there, too.
Obviously the biggest concern surrounding the Olympics is the sheer number of people who'd be coming into Tokyo from all over the world. It's a legitimate one, too, especially since COVID situation is (and will continue to be) different everywhere. And, even if no fans are allowed (and I think there will be some fans, even if it's only Japanese citizens), you're still talking about 11,000 athletes, plus thousands more coaches, officials and broadcasters, none of whom will be required to quarantine ahead of time.
Olympic participants won't be required to take the vaccine, either, although they'll all be encouraged to. Some countries (Israel, Hungary) have already begun vaccinating their Olympians, while others (Australia) have said they will be prioritized. As healthy adults, Olympians generally fall into the last groups that would be eligible, and the NOCs have been adamant about not wanting to jump the line. But, it's also reasonable to think that their turn would've come up by then anyway.
More significantly, the athletes all want to go. They know the risks. They know the measures that they'll have to take and the sacrifices they'll have to make. The know that these will be the "COVID Olympics" and there will be no way around it. They don't care! A pandemic-affected Olympics is better than no Olympics at all!
So, a preemptive cancellation wouldn't be "the right thing" to do. Frankly, it would be the wrong thing. Because this isn't last year. In 2020, as postponement went from unlikely to possible to inevitable within the span of a few weeks, the athletes were left hanging. This year, there's no such uncertainty. Everyone's committed to forging ahead and is able to plan accordingly. Cancellation remains a possibility, but only as a last resort.
If cancellation is the last resort, then, why rush to make that decision? Even if the anonymous government official was correct and it is inevitable (which, it bears repeating, the IOC and Tokyo organizers have emphatically denied), who would benefit from such an announcement being made now? IOC officials have indicated nothing needs to be decided until March. A lot can happen between now and then.
Last year, the decision didn't come until the end of March, which, in hindsight, was probably too late. I think that's why people want a decision to come earlier this year. I disagree, though. There's no need to decide anything this early. Especially if it's only going to be bad news. Because once a decision's made, that's it. And the last thing anybody wants is the IOC to cancel the Tokyo Games when it turns out they could've proceeded safely after all.
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