2020 AFC Preview

The last time an NFL game was played, the world as we knew it was still normal.  A stadium full of people watched the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, while millions more watched on TV, many doing so together at Super Bowl parties (I went to my sister's house for the game, but her power went out early in the first quarter and didn't come back on until the 2-minute warning, so my brother-in-law and I huddled around his phone for three hours.  I should've known then that 2020 would be 2020).  Obviously, a lot has changed since then.

In a way, the NFL got lucky with the timing of the pandemic.  They had to conduct the draft virtually and couldn't conduct any in-person workouts or meetings, but, unlike virtually every other sporting entity in the world, they didn't have to adjust their schedule at all.  Sure, they cancelled the preseason, but that was on the verge of going away anyway.  The players hate preseason games and fans don't really care about them.  So I doubt they were missed by too many people.

Although, I must admit, it was weird not to have a preseason.  As meaningless and terrible as the games are, they're still a reminder that football season is on its way.  And they're a chance to see rookies and free agents in their new uniforms for the first time, even if its only for a few series (which is really the only benefit to them).  I have no idea what kind of evaluation process coaches used when determining the final cuts without preseason games, but they figured it out somehow!

Preseason games also gave us that little glimpse of what each team might look like with its starters on the field.  It's obviously very difficult to take anything away from preseason games as a basis for predictions, but they're better than nothing!  This year, we're all going into the season completely blind.  We haven't seen anybody play, so we can only guess who might be good.

Throughout the spring and summer, the NFL was committed to starting the 2020 season on time, and, sure enough, that's exactly what's going to happen.  And it'll be a different season to say the least.  Games will be played in empty stadiums (at least to start) and the threat of a second outbreak shutting the season down looms.  They built the schedule with that in mind and are willing to delay the Super Bowl until the end of February.  Here's hoping that doesn't happen...and that the Super Bowl will be played in a sold out stadium like it should!

However, there's plenty of reason to be excited, too.  For starters, the long-awaited playoff expansion is here.  Starting this season, there will be three wild cards per conference and only the No. 1 seed will have a first-round bye.  While this will likely increase the number of 9-7 or 8-8 playoff teams, I actually think it'll create a lot more excitement.  The better teams will be less likely to sit starters knowing only the No. 1 seed gets a bye, the No. 1 seed gets much more of an advantage than in the past, and more teams will be in contention.  All of those are good things.

There should be plenty of candidates for those extra playoff berths, too.  The Chiefs are the clear class of the AFC, but there should be solid battles in each of the other three divisions.  And, thanks to a certain quarterback's relocation, one team that views division titles as its birthright may see its run of dominance come to an end.  Don't count them out for a wild card, though.

East: Bills (11-5), Patriots (10-6), Jets (6-10), Dolphins (4-12)
While it might be premature to declare the Patriots dead, there's no question that they aren't the prohibitive division favorites for the first time any of us can remember.  And that might've been the case anyway this season even if Brady had stayed in New England.  The Buffalo Bills were a playoff team last year and only got better with the addition of a No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs.  Their first home playoff game since 1996 is definitely a realistic goal.

New England is still good enough to make the playoffs, though.  Cam Newton was a great signing for the Patriots.  It's a marriage I predicted as soon as he was cut by Carolina, and it makes sense on both sides.  With Cam under center, I expect the Patriots to return to the postseason...as a wild card team this time.  Give the Jets another year or two and they'll be in the discussion with the Bills and Patriots, too.  Miami, meanwhile, still has plenty of issues.  The Dolphins aren't the worst team in the AFC, but it's close.

North: Steelers (11-5), Ravens (10-6), Browns (7-9), Bengals (5-11)
Lamar Jackson set the league on fire last season, winning MVP and leading Baltimore to the best record in the NFL.  Only for it to all come crashing down in the playoffs.  I'm curious to see if he'll be able to keep it going or if the other coaches (after having nothing to do for months except watch film) have figured out a way to stop him.  Either way, they're a damn good team, and they're definitely one of the seven best in the AFC.  Will they have another dominant regular season, though?  That's the million-dollar question.

Expect a huge bounce back season for the Pittsburgh Steelers, too.  Don't forget, the Steelers started four different quarterbacks last season and went through enough turmoil for two teams.  And they still almost made the playoffs!  With a healthy Big Ben and a healthy defense, Pittsburgh could easily reclaim the division title.  The Cleveland Browns, meanwhile, are capable of being a sleeper playoff team.  Last year, the expectations might've been too high for the Browns, who were unable to recover from a rough start against a brutal early schedule.  So, lower expectations could be a good thing in Cleveland.  Things will be better in Cincinnati this season, too, especially if Joe Burrow can live up to the hype.

South: Texans (11-5), Titans (10-6), Colts (9-7), Jaguars (3-13)
Without a doubt, the AFC South is the most competitive in the AFC.  It's the most top-heavy in the entire league, too.  Jacksonville might be the worst team in the league and will battle Washington for the No. 1 pick, but the other three are all legitimate playoff-caliber teams.  It's even conceivable that all three could make it.  So, really, it might be injuries (or the lack thereof) that determines things in the AFC South.

On paper, Houston has the most talent in the division.  The Texans are the team that needs to keep its stars on the field the most, though.  Because they don't have the depth of the Titans or the Colts.  But if J.J. Watt and DeShaun Watson can stay healthy, Houston's the team to beat.  It'll be tough for the Titans to return to the AFC Championship Game, especially since everyone knows they're a one-trick pony.  They've consistently overachieved under Mike Vrabel, though, so it would be foolish to count them out.  And expect the Colts to be in the thick of the race all season, too.  Upgrading at quarterback was their top priority, and I'll say they succeeded in that with the addition of Philip Rivers (although it'll certainly be odd to not see him in a Chargers uniform).

West: Chiefs (13-3), Raiders (8-8), Broncos (7-9), Chargers (6-10)
I think it's safe to say that we've officially seen the passing of the torch.  Patrick Mahomes has become the face of the league after winning league MVP and Super Bowl MVP over the past two seasons.  Kansas City's title was a long time coming, and it might not be their last.  Because the Chiefs aren't going anywhere.  They're just as good this season as they were over the last two years.  They could easily become the new Patriots.

Kansas City's first title defense in 50 years will feature trips to a pair of brand new, state-of-the-art venues.  The Raiders left Oakland for the second time (this time likely for good) for greener pastures in Las Vegas.  They're certainly capable of earning a wild card, but Jon Gruden's gonna need that bet on Marcus Mariota to pay off.  The Chargers begin a new era.  Philip Rivers is in Indy and, after three years in a soccer stadium, they move into their new home, SoFi Stadium, which they'll share with the Rams.  Unfortunately, it's the Rams who'll see more success in the stadium.  And the Broncos really need to figure out what they're doing at quarterback!  It's been an issue since Peyton Manning retired, and it's really the only thing keeping Denver out of serious wild card conversations.

Division Winners: 1-Chiefs (West), 2-Steelers (North), 3-Texans (South), 4-Bills (East)
Wild Cards: Ravens, Patriots, Titans
Yes, I have all six of last season's playoff teams returning, with the Steelers joining them thanks to that extra berth.  They'll have a razor-thin margin for error, though.  Because the Colts and Raiders will be right there on the cusp, and don't count out Cleveland.  If you're looking for a sleeper team, the Browns might be it!  It's really no matter, though.  The Chiefs are the champions and will be the hunted.  They'll be ready, though, and should be making their second February trip to Florida in a row.