Thursday, April 16, 2020

Busy Fall (Maybe)

Depending on who you ask, sports could potentially resume over the summer.  Or not until 2022.  The mixed messaging from different local politicians is really enough to give you whiplash.  But the leagues need to come up with some sort of plan for when and how they'll resume their seasons.  And, assuming all the postponed events are able to take place on their rescheduled dates, the fall will be awfully busy.

Whether or not these events actually happen is a different question.  They could easily end up going the way of Wimbledon and The Open and outright cancel.  But the U.S.-based events have plenty of reason to believe they'll be able to play somewhere, with or without fans, at some point this year, regardless of what some of the politicians might say.

Golf is aiming for a mid-June return and has an ambitious slate with a tournament every weekend from then until November.  That includes all three of the remaining Majors.  The PGA Championship in August (on the original dates for the Olympic golf tournament), the U.S. Open in mid-September (the week before the Ryder Cup) and a November Masters (just six months before the 2021 edition).  Of course, the PGA Championship is in San Francisco and the U.S. Open is just outside New York, so we'll see if they actually take place in those locations, but it's nice to at least see somebody that has an actual plan!

It's probably easiest to maintain social distancing (there's that term again) in golf, so it's reasonable to think the PGA could manage to come back and still follow the guidelines.  Another sport with little-to-no physical contact is tennis.  Although tennis' return is complicated by its international nature, so travel restrictions will have to be lifted if they want anything resembling full fields of top pros.

With Wimbledon cancelled, the tennis calendar is now empty until the second week in July (the week after Wimbledon would've ended).  That's when the US Open Series starts, so they conceivably could actually play those tournaments as scheduled (assuming the facility is open) since there would be no international flights involved once the players are in the U.S.  They're going to decide in June about the US Open itself, which has been held every year since 1881 and never been cancelled (including during both World Wars).

Right after the US Open is scheduled to end is the postponed French Open, which the French Tennis Federation controversially rescheduled unilaterally (more on that in a future post).  Will France be ready?  That's a different question entirely.  But the clay court major would be the culmination of an exciting month in France, assuming the country is capable of hosting its two biggest events by then.

The Tour de France recently joined the list of major events that have been cancelled or postponed this spring/summer.  It was supposed to start in mid-June (the race was moved earlier this year because of the Olympics), so when France extended its national lockdown beyond that date you knew it would be postponed.  But they also wanted to make sure it was finished before the rescheduled French Open.  Thus, we'll get (hopefully) a Tour de France that starts in mid-August and sees them riding down the Champs Elysees the day before the Rafa Invitational gets underway.

So far, NASCAR hasn't lost any of its major events.  That'll change if the Coca-Cola 600 can't happen on Memorial Day Weekend as usual, but no major event has been postponed as of yet.  Although, if the Coca-Cola 600 does end up getting rescheduled, I wouldn't be surprised to see it take one of those two open weekends that was built into the NASCAR schedule for the Olympics (and are no longer needed).

When this all started, I said Memorial Day Weekend would be our benchmark for major events.  The Monaco Grand Prix was cancelled (they seem to have much less of a problem cancelling in Europe than we do here), but I was more focused on the Indy 500.  Well, they jumped on that early, moving it to the end of August.

May's other big event, the Kentucky Derby, is now Labor Day Weekend.  That actually works out well to keep the Triple Crown schedule in tact...just four months later.  The Preakness hasn't been postponed yet, but it likely will be.  And it can easily be moved to Sept. 19, which would still be two weeks after the Derby.  As for the Belmont Stakes, it makes no sense for that to be first, especially when moving it to Oct. 10 keeps the three races in order.  I think that's likely what'll happen.

All of the April/May marathons have been moved to the fall, too.  The Boston Marathon, which was originally scheduled for this coming Monday, was postponed for the first time in its 124-year history (a remarkable streak).  It's now on Sept. 14.  London was moved to Oct. 4.  Paris hasn't been rescheduled yet, but it's looking like Oct. 18 will be its new date.  And, with New York on Nov. 1, that means a major marathon is essentially scheduled every other week during a seven-week stretch in the fall.

None of this takes into account the NFL or college football, which may or may not start on time.  Plus, the NHL has indicated its willing to go as late as September and the NBA has no problem going until October, assuming they resume their seasons.  And, if baseball ever does get started, it'll be the stretch run and playoff time.

I have no idea how the networks would be able to show all of this, but I'm sure that's a problem they're more than willing to deal with.  Those discussions are probably already underway (Jim Nantz has said he'll call the Masters instead of football that weekend, and I'd imagine they'll set it up so Joe Buck is off on the Sunday of the U.S. Open).  After not having live sports for months on end until then, I'm sure fans will be more than willing to have multiple major events going on at the same time, too.

Is it overly optimistic to think there won't be further cancellations and postponements?  Probably.  Will all of these rescheduled events actually take place this fall?  Hopefully.  Although we all acknowledge that "maybe not" is a very possible option, as well.  If they do all go off as (re)scheduled, though, we could be in for a fun couple of months that will almost make up for the incredible void we're currently in.  And, frankly, it's worth having something to actually look forward to.

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