Monday, February 17, 2020

XFL 2.0's Lasting Power

We're two weeks in, and it's safe to say XFL 2.0 is nothing like its predecessor.  The original XFL was all about the gimmicks, which were way too over-the-top and weren't enough to distract people from the fact that the football wasn't very good.  XFL 2.0 is the complete opposite.  Their tagline is "For the Love of Football," and, while there are still gimmicks, they're all about the football.

And, I've gotta say, I like the XFL's kickoffs.  In the NFL, it's almost as if they don't want there to be any returns.  In the XFL, the kickoff rules are designed precisely so that there will be.  It's weird to see everybody lined up stationary on the line of scrimmage as the kicker approaches the ball, but it is nice to see the kickoff return being seen as the potential weapon it can be.

I wish the XFL thought the same about punts.  Because while they want kickoffs to be returned, the XFL discourages punts.  Teams are allowed to do it, but they want them to go for it on fourth down, so they made the punt touchbacks come out so far that there's little incentive to try and pin the other team deep.  Of course, that's a staple of the NFL game.

Although, there's another thing that they could do, which I'm surprised hasn't caught on beyond its CFL origins.  In the CFL, they have the "rouge," a play in which the kicking team gets one point on any punt, kickoff or missed field goal not returned out of the end zone.  Now, CFL end zones are huge, so touchbacks are rare to begin with, but the rouge is something that screams "XFL!"

That's definitely a way to reduce the number of touchbacks.  The return team has the choice--get the ball at the 25-yard line (am I the only one who thinks it's stupid that touchbacks on kickoffs come out to the 25, but they only come out to the 20 on punts and turnovers?) and concede the point OR take it out of the end zone and get it wherever the return man ends up.  Now THAT would add to the strategy!

Of course, the XFL has their own ideas for how to add to the strategy with their three different point-after-touchdown options.  Apparently Bill Belichick isn't the only one who hates extra points.  Because the XFL has abandoned them entirely (at least they still have kickoffs, unlike their AAF brethren).  Instead they have 1-, 2- and 3-point conversions, which move progressively further back.  So, in the XFL, an 18-point deficit is technically a two-possession game.

Early returns are promising for XFL 2.0.  They certainly seem better prepared this time than they were 20 years ago, and the product is far better.  Is it NFL-quality football?  No.  But it's definitely better than some people were expecting.  Is that enough to maintain interest, though?

There's one big difference between XFL 2.0 and the AAF, which failed miserably and didn't even complete its inaugural season last year.  Unlike the AAF, the XFL actually has money.  So, they're not going to run out of it and shut down immediately.  But does XFL 2.0 actually have lasting power?  Will there even be a second season?  I'm not so sure.

The TV ratings for last week's opening games weren't bad.  But a lot of that may have been the curiosity factor.  After all, the original XFL drew amazing TV ratings for its inaugural games before they dropped off tremendously as the season went on.  We won't see the Week 2 ratings for a while, but you know there's going to be a drop off.  The question is how big?  And will the XFL manage to maintain high enough ratings (and attendance) to make it worthwhile?  Again, I'm not so sure.

Both versions of the XFL and the AAF were started because their founders, Vince McMahon and Charlie Ebersol, saw the American appetite for football and thought they would be filling a void in the spring.  There's no NFL or college football from the week after the Super Bowl in February until the preseason starts in August.  (That, of course, doesn't include the Combine, the Draft, and all of the other offseason events.)  So, the thought is, the XFL will give people their football fix until late April (when the Draft is).

My skepticism about the lasting power of the XFL (or any spring football league) is about how great that appetite is.  Especially for football that isn't nearly as high quality.  It's true that most people's Sunday afternoons are freed up once the Super Bowl is over, but that gap really isn't as large as it's made out to be.  Sure, Sundays in February are pretty light in non-Winter Olympic years, but March Madness isn't too far off, then baseball season starts.  And the XFL plans to be done by May, anyway, so the weeks they're looking to fill are already taken up by other sports, mainly college basketball.

Every time a spring football league has popped up, it has ultimately failed.  In fact, none has lasted longer than the USFL's three years (I'm not counting NFL Europe since that was essentially an NFL developmental league).  The reasons for those failures has varied, but you can't discount some people just needing a break from football after the Super Bowl.  Except for European soccer, there isn't a single year-round sport...and there's a reason for that.

This version of the XFL isn't fooling itself.  It doesn't view itself as a competitor to the NFL (at least not yet) and is offering itself as an alternative for those fans who do want more football once the season's over.  And they're smarter than they were last time by letting the football do the talking.  Because that's ultimately going to be the deciding factor.  People won't tune in to watch a bad product, so you need to worry about that first otherwise your lasting power will be nonexistent.

Can XFL 2.0 work long term?  I doubt it.  It's nothing against the league.  It's just something about spring football.  I'm just not sure there's the appetite for it that some people think there is.  But even if XFL 2.0 doesn't last, it'll leave a legacy.  Because some of their ideas aren't bad.  And you know the NFL is watching, looking for ways they can improve their own product.  Just like they did with the original XFL 20 years ago.

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