Friday, January 3, 2020

NFL 100: Playoffs, Week 1

We made it!  It's playoff time in the NFL, and Week 17 sure didn't disappoint in providing drama.  The 49ers got the defensive stop they needed to win the NFC West and the conference's No. 1 seed.  The Titans took all the suspense out of the AFC wild card race by dominating the Texans.  The Dolphins, meanwhile, pulled the shocker of all shockers, beating the Patriots in Foxboro to take New England's first-round bye and give it to Kansas City.

It'll be both weird and fun to see New England actually playing on Wild Card Weekend, then potentially playing an actual road Divisional Playoff game for the first time since the 2006 season.  They're joined by three teams that have never won the Super Bowl, which could actually work in their favor.  The first three champions of 2019 were first-time winners (Blues, Raptors, Nationals).  So, if the NFL is going to follow that trend and make it a perfect 4-for-4 with first-time champions in the 2019 seasons, it bodes well for the Bills-Texans winner, as well as the Titans and Vikings.

Speaking of the Vikings, they head to New Orleans for a rematch of the "Minneapolis Miracle."  The Saints, incredibly, went 13-3 and didn't get a bye!  As a result, they've got to play an extra game, then travel to Green Bay instead of staying at the Superdome.  Will that make a difference?  Or, is it even possible that they'll find another excruciating way to be eliminated from the playoffs this season?

AFC
Bills (10-6) at Texans (10-6):
Houston-The playoffs start with what seems to have become the annual Saturday afternoon game in Houston.  And this is a tremendous opportunity for both the Bills and Texans.  They both lost last week, but this matchup was already locked in, so neither seemed to care.  This is the one that matters, and they've both got a great shot to turn around their recent playoff history.  Buffalo is looking for its first playoff win since 1995, while Houston is the only team in the league that has never played in a Conference Championship Game.

Buffalo's 10-6 record is by no means a fluke.  They belong here.  But can they get enough offense against a Houston defense that will only get better with the return of J.J. Watt?  The Texans seem to follow the same script every year.  They lose one or two games to a middle-of the-road team, but play great when the stakes are the highest.  I don't see anything different happening here.  The Texans move on, and the Bills have to wait another year.

Titans (9-7) at Patriots (12-4): New England-Welcome to Wild Card Weekend, Bradicheck!  It's the round of playoff games played before the Divisional round, where it's no longer a requirement that you host.  And, yes, that made your road to a fourth straight Super Bowl a lot more difficult.  Although, it might be a good thing that you have an extra game to play.  Because that offense needs as much time on the field as it can get!

Their opponent won't be a pushover, either.  Ever since Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota, the Titans' offense has been very formidable.  Which means New England will have to rely on its strength--its defense--to keep Tennessee at bay.  Although, the offense will need to hold its own and come up with a big play or two if the Patriots want to guarantee themselves a trip to Kansas City.  Make no mistake, though.  Their fans may be shell-shocked by the Patriots' playoff home game coming a week earlier, but Belichick always makes sure the players take it one game at a time.  They'll do just that and send the Titans packing.

NFC
Vikings (10-6) at Saints (13-3): New Orleans-Two years ago, they played an absolute classic in the Divisional Playoffs.  They also played a memorable NFC Championship Game following the 2009 season.  So what does the third installment of the Saints-Vikings playoff rivalry have in store for us?  Offense.  Plenty of offense.

This one has all the makings of a shootout, especially with Drew Brees slinging passes to Michael Thomas left and right.  New Orleans will need something more than that to win, though.  They'll need their defense to step up, too.  Make no mistake, though.  The 13-3 Saints are the best team playing this weekend.  They're legitimate Super Bowl contenders (see below).  And this is probably their last time playing in the Superdome this season.  I'd like to think this game will be close, but I can see the Saints getting up big early and running away with it.

Seahawks (11-5) at Eagles (9-7): Seattle-To everyone who said the NFC East didn't "deserve" a playoff team, guess what?  The Eagles don't just belong, they're going to be very formidable.  Yes, it was four division games against three teams that fired their coaches, but a four-game winning streak to end the season is a four-game winning streak to end the season.  And it got them a home playoff game against a team that has to travel cross country for it.

Obviously, Seattle would've preferred to be at home.  But this is a different Seahawks team than in years past.  They're 7-1 on the road this season.  And the Eagles are a good opponent for them.  Philly won just four games outside the NFC East (although two of those wins were over the Packers and Bills).  As a result, Seattle is the only road favorite of Wild Card Weekend.  The Seahawks beat the Eagles 17-9 in Week 12.  Their playoff encounter should be a little higher-scoring, but the result should be the same.  The Seahawks win.

Super Bowl LIV: Kansas City over New Orleans
Baltimore enters the playoffs as the favorite to win the Super Bowl...and should be.  The Ravens have the best offense in football, as well as a tremendous defense.  They've won 12 straight since starting the season 2-2, winning both blowouts and close games alike.  However, with all that being said, I don't even see them getting to Miami.  Because Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs are on a similar roll.  The Chiefs are peaking at just the right time, winning six straight and earning a first-round bye.  And their defense has been unreal during the streak.  That's why I see them finishing what they started last year.  Kansas City beats New England, then Baltimore, and makes its first Super Bowl appearance in 50 years.

In the NFC, experts are rightly saying that San Francisco's Super Bowl odds increased dramatically with last Sunday night's win in Seattle that gave them the 1-seed.  I 100 percent agree with that.  The 49ers were not going to win three road games.  Frankly, I don't see them winning two home games, either.  Because, I've said it all year, and I'll say it again now--the Saints are the best team in the NFC.  A lot has been made about the fact it's been six years since a team that didn't have a first-round bye reached the Super Bowl.  I think that changes this year.  Because the Saints will beat the Packers in Lambeau, then go to San Francisco and avenge their loss in that Week 14 instant classic (which would've made New Orleans the 1-seed had they won instead).

So, I've got that Chiefs-Saints Super Bowl one year later.  The Saints back in a Miami Super Bowl 10 years after their last.  And Andy Reid finally back for the second time, 15 years after taking the Eagles to the Promised Land.  He's one of the greatest coaches of his generation, but doesn't have a Super Bowl ring to show for it.  That changes this year.  Kansas City's roll will continue, and the Chiefs will end the NFL's 100th season the same way they ended its 50th (as well as the AFL's entire existence).  By lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 154-101-1

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