Friday, December 13, 2019

Revisionist History Via Reverse Causation

I saw something today that I thought was pretty funny.  It basically blamed the Buffalo Bills for the Kardashians.  We've typically only blamed O.J., but this Facebook meme made a pretty convincing case that it was the entire franchise's fault.  Particularly the 1968 Bills.  They finished 1-12-1 that season.  If they'd won the game that they tied in Miami, they would've finished with same record as the Falcons and O.J. might've ended up in Atlanta instead.  And if O.J. doesn't end up in Buffalo, it doesn't set forth a chain of events ending with the Kardashians being unleashed on America whether we like it or not.

But that also got me thinking about some other scenarios where things might've been different had a certain event not taken place or a different decision had been made.  The Dodgers might still be in Brooklyn had Robert Moses let Walter O'Malley build a new stadium in Brooklyn like he wanted.  If the Blazers had taken Michael Jordan instead of Sam Bowie, it might've been them, not the Bulls, who won six championships in eight years.

It's fun pretending like this, so let's reverse the causation property and see what else might have never happened if one little thing had been different...

Mo Lewis doesn't knock out Drew Bledsoe: Does the legend of Tom Brady ever start if he isn't pressed into duty by Mo Lewis?  Bledsoe doesn't get hurt on that play and doesn't lose his job to Brady.  The Patriots don't become a dynasty and Brady doesn't become Brady.  Thanks, Mo Lewis.  Thanks.

The Colts pick Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton Manning: Unlike the Jordan-Bowie decision, the Colts made the right one in 1998.  But oh how things might've been different had they taken Leaf instead.  Peyton doesn't become a franchise icon an sure-fire Hall of Famer.  The Colts don't enjoy a decade of success, don't get their new stadium built, and might even leave Indianapolis.

PyeongChang hosts the 2014 Winter Olympics: The final vote was 51-47 for Sochi.  If three votes had gone the other way, Russia doesn't host.  They don't try to win as many medals as possible at their home Games, thus they never begin their national doping program.  The scandal never starts, Russian athletes are allowed to compete under their own flag, and the country isn't the pariah it has become.

Lance Armstrong never attempts a comeback: Had he just ridden off into the sunset with his seven Tour de France titles, he never gets the attention of Travis Tygart.  There's no investigation into his drug use, no disqualifications, no banishments.  He's still a seven-time Tour de France champion and hero to cancer survivors everywhere.  Not the poster child for disgraced, fallen stars.

Baseball doesn't go on strike: There were a lot of ripple effects from the 1994-95 baseball strike.  But without the strike, there's no Steroid Era.  There's no Great Home Run Race of 1998, making Barry Bonds jealous and prompting his own steroid use en route to controversially setting the single-season and career home run records.  Instead of becoming a pariah, Bonds has a plaque in Cooperstown.

Aaron Boone doesn't get hurt playing basketball: Boone has spent more time as Yankees manager than he did as a player in pinstripes.  It was the end of the 2003 season.  That's it.  But it was enough to give him a signature Yankee moment (the walk-off home run in Game 7 of the ALCS).  He was all set to come back as the regular third baseman in 2004...until he tore up his knee playing basketball and they got some guy named Rodriguez to replace him.  So, if Boone never plays pickup basketball that offseason, the Yankees never trade for A-Rod.  He gets traded to Boston instead, and who knows whether he starts taking steroids?

Oklahoma City doesn't become the Hornets' temporary home: Hurricane Katrina doesn't devastate the city of New Orleans.  The Hornets aren't displaced from their arena.  Oklahoma City never steps up as their temporary home.  Clay Bennett never sees Oklahoma City as a potential NBA market and the Sonics stay in Seattle where they belong.  (And, yes, I do understand how wrong it is to blame that on a natural disaster.)

LeBron doesn't leave the Cavs (the first time): All was forgiven after he came back and Cleveland, according to NBA rules at the time, made annual appearances in the Finals.  But what if he never left in the first place?  There's no "Decision."  He doesn't "take his talents to South Beach."  The Heat don't build a superteam and go to four straight Finals.  That trend never starts in the NBA and there's actually some parity in that league.

Complaints about Larry Nasser, Jerry Sandusky, etc., are taken seriously at the time: Unfortunately, this happened way too much.  And there was a lot of collateral damage in each situation.  If Penn State doesn't turn a blind eye to Sandusky, dozens of young boys are never subjected to his disgusting behavior, and he doesn't bring Joe Paterno down with him.  If Michigan State and the USOC don't ignore the allegations against Nasser, all those young athletes don't become victims, and USA Gymnastics remains a reputable governing body.  Oh, how so many things would've been different and so many lives would've been changed for the better if these two men had been stopped earlier.

Tiger Woods doesn't get into a car accident: Chances are Tiger's infidelity would've been exposed eventually, but it all came crashing down in spectacular fashion that night he crashed his car.  Tiger's image isn't shattered.  His career doesn't come to a screeching halt.  He stays on track to become the greatest golfer ever.  Although, the fact that in real life, he's bounced back from those lows to get back on top is an even bigger testament to his greatness.

What this little exercise showed is the ripple effects one thing can cause.  Every one of those situations would've played out in a totally different way had one little detail changed.  There are plenty of other examples, too.  And it really is incredible.  You might not necessarily think it at the time.  But the smallest details can sometimes have the biggest impact on an athlete, a team, a city, or even a country.

No comments:

Post a Comment