Sunday, January 20, 2019

NFL Playoffs, Conference Championships

That Rams-Chiefs Monday night shootout in November was the best NFL game of the year.  During the game, they kept teasing that it could be a Super Bowl preview, and people were left salivating at that possibility.  And now that possibility is staring us in the face!  If they win their respective conference championship games, we'll get that rematch two weeks from now in Atlanta.

Of the four possible Super Bowl matchups, Chiefs-Rams would by far be the most entertaining.  But all four are intriguing in their own way.  If it's Saints-Patriots, we've got two Hall of Famers still slinging it in their 40s.  And Saints-Chiefs or Patriots-Rams would be one of those old guys against the new superstar QB.

In fact, that's what we've got in both Conference Championship Games.  Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs keep Bradicheck from going to their 85th Super Bowl together?  Will Drew Brees add a second Super Bowl trip to his Hall of Fame resume or will the Rams get revenge for their first loss of the year?

Personally, I'd like to see a Chiefs-Rams Super Bowl, and not just because I, like most of America, am suffering from Patriots fatigue.  It's because I think those truly are the two best teams in the NFL, and they have been all season.  These are the four best teams in the league, though (which doesn't always happen in the Conference Championships), and both games could definitely go either way.  They're both regular season rematches.  But in each case, I'm going with the team that lost the first meeting.

Rams (14-3) at Saints (14-3): Rams-The first time these two met was in early November.  The Rams came into New Orleans undefeated, only to be outscored by the Saints.  At the time, most people thought it would determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and they turned out to be right.  As that win gave New Orleans the right to host the rematch.

I'm expecting this one to be different.  I'm thinking the defenses will play a much larger roll than they did in Week 9.  Last week, New Orleans allowed touchdowns on the Eagles' first two possessions of the game.  And then...nothing!  The Rams, meanwhile, stopped Dallas when they needed to.  Let's not forget, too, that they've got Aaron Donald, who just might be the best defensive player in football.

The biggest thing the Saints will have going for them isn't Drew Brees or their defense.  It's that dome.  They're tough to beat at home for a reason.  Those fans provide a tremendous boost, and their offense is much more dynamic in that controlled environment.  It's why home field advantage was so important to them.  Which makes it even more imperative to get them off the field on third down.  If Brees and Kamara can get into a rhythm, it'll be a long day for the Rams' defense.

However, the Rams' offense will also be different than when they first met the Saints.  Todd Gurley is great, but they been operating at a different level offensively since they started splitting carries between him and C.J. Anderson in mid-December.  Having a strong all-around running game has helped take some of the pressure off Jared Goff, which has helped him get his mojo back.

And that improved running game could be the difference.  It's one element the Rams didn't have and the Saints took advantage of in the first meeting.  If LA can run the ball effectively and control the clock, it'll limit the amount of damage Brees and Co. are able to do.  In a close one, I say the Rams take it 24-21.

Patriots (12-5) at Chiefs (13-4): Kansas City-So much for the Chargers being the only team capable of giving the Patriots a game at Foxboro.  New England dominated them from the start and never let up to secure their annual berth in the AFC Championship Game.  The difference this time, though, is that they're on the road.  And that could be a huge factor.  Especially considering the fact that the AFC Championship Game has never been in Kansas City before.

A lot has been made about New England's dominance at home.  And with good reason.  They were the only team in the league to go undefeated in their own stadium this season and they've won nine consecutive home playoff games.  They haven't won a playoff game on the road since 2006, though (of course, they never play any, but still).  However, Bradicheck will have to take the show on the road this time, and that could prove to be a huge difference.  Especially considering they were only 3-5 on the road this year, with two of those wins coming against the Bills and Jets.

Patriots fanholes are famous for their ability to think rationally about their football team.  It's obviously a conspiracy by the NFL against them that Clete Blakeman is the referee.  Never mind that he was the AFC Championship Game referee last year (when they won).  All they're focused on is the fact that he was also the referee for the Deflategate game (which New England also won, by the way).

Well, I hate to break it to you Patriots fans, but who the referee is will matter very little in the outcome of the game.  What the Chiefs need to do is not let the moment get the best of them.  Mahomes and Co. just need to do what they've done all season.  Controlling the ball will be key, too.  Because they'll want to keep Brady off the field.  Kansas City's defense obviously needs to step up, as well.  And they need to have a better defensive game plan than the Chargers did.  If Brady starts doing his thing, they need to make adjustments on the fly.  It's going to be cold in Kansas City, though.  Which means it might come down to the running game, where the Chiefs have the advantage.

When he was with the Eagles, Andy Reid developed a reputation for getting to the NFC Championship Game and not winning it.  This is his first trip with Kansas City.  He's been building the Chiefs to this point for a few years, and they are the best team in the AFC.  Combine that with New England's road woes, and I think we'll see Kansas City in the Super Bowl for the first time in 49 years.  The AFC Championship trophy is named after Chiefs founder Lamar Hunt.  It's about time they got one.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 4-4
Overall: 166-96-2

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