As the NBA rolls towards yet another Cavs-Warriors finals (raise your hand if you're shocked by that) and I engage in a lively Facebook debate about the stupidity of having Game 7 and Game 1 on the same night for no reason, we prepare for some new blood to battle it out for the Stanley Cup. Somebody's name is being engraved on the Cup for the first time, as Washington and Vegas square off in a Final series nobody saw coming (at the start of the playoffs, let alone the start of the season).
Neither one of these teams has won a Stanley Cup Final game, let alone a series. The Capitals were swept by the Red Wings 21 years ago in their only previous trip, and we all know about all the history the Golden Knights have been rewriting during their remarkable inaugural season. Vegas is just the second team in NHL history to play for the Cup in its first year of existence. Although, that comes with a big asterisk because the 1968 Blues went as an expansion team in the year the NHL doubled in size from six teams to 12 and put all of the expansion clubs in the same conference, guaranteeing one had to make the Final. What Vegas has done is truly unprecedented.
Speaking of the Golden Knights, am I the only one who feels a certain poetic justice in the fact that Marc-Andre Fleury is back in the Final while the Penguins are not? He was skating around the ice with the Cup after Game 6 in Nashville last season knowing his time in Pittsburgh was done, and knowing that he was headed to Las Vegas. Well, that sure worked out for him, didn't it? I highly doubt he expected to be back this year, though.
Fleury has absolutely been the difference for Vegas in the playoffs thus far. The Knights have leaned on him not just for his incredible play, but because he was really the only one on the team with any playoff experience. That's especially true now. This is uncharted territory for pretty much everyone else (on both teams). Fleury's been here four times and won three Cups. That alone could prove to be huge.
Meanwhile, the Capitals have got to be thinking, "How do we get away from this guy!?" They finally got by the Penguins, only to have to deal with Fleury in the Final. The pressure's also squarely on the Capitals. Ovechkin finally has his chance to play for the Cup. They don't know when or if he'll get another one. Vegas has been playing with house money all season. What have they got to lose? Washington played free and loose against Tampa. But now the focus shifts back to Ovechkin and his Stanley Cup opportunity.
One thing the Capitals have going for them, though, is how well they've played on the road this postseason. They're 8-2 on the road and clinched all three series away from DC. They obviously need at least one road win if they want to hoist the Cup, but the Knights are 6-1 at home in Vegas, so something's gotta give.
Let's not forget this fact, either. The Capitals trailed in all three series. They were down 0-2 against Columbus and won four straight. They lost Game 1 against Pittsburgh and won four of the next five. They trailed Tampa Bay 3-2, then Braden Holtby stopped allowing goals entirely and they posted shutouts in Games 6 and 7 to advance to the Final. So, even if they get down, Washington has shown an ability to come back. As a result, don't expect Vegas to steamroll the way they did in the first three rounds.
The Knights obviously have the rest factor squarely on their side. In baseball, you sometimes wonder if a team has had too much rest if there's a long gap between series in the postseason. Well, Vegas has had a long break between every series, and it hasn't made a bit of difference. Although, with the exception of the three games in Winnipeg, they've spent pretty much the entire postseason in the Pacific time zone. We'll see if the increased travel and playing on the East Coast has any sort of an impact.
Both goalies have obviously been outstanding. But it seems unlikely both of these high-powered offenses will be held in check for the duration of a seven-game series. Ovechkin and Marchessault are the marquee offensive guys, but they're both deep and full of scorers. That's why I think getting an early lead is going to be important. Because they've both got the firepower to add on. Likewise, they've both got the ability to come back, so the early lead will give them the chance to dictate the pace.
Ultimately, though, in a series where a grand total of three guys (two of whom played for Pittsburgh) have Final experience, that's the ultimate wild card. Fleury being one of those guys gives Vegas a slight edge. He's the most important player in this series. Because as good as the Golden Knights have been, they wouldn't be here if not for their goaltender. Does he have four more wins in him?
I have a feeling that Alex Ovechkin is going to do something special, too. It's much more difficult for a skater to will his team to win than a goalie, but Ovechkin is going to do everything he can to do just that. This is his time to shine. He knows there's that one gaping hole in his resume, and this is his chance to do something about it.
You can really make a pretty good argument either way. This Capitals team really isn't much different than the one that won back-to-back President's Trophies. Now they've finally converted that regular season success into a long postseason run. And it definitely seems like they have more left in them.
But it also feels like the Golden Knights' incredible story has one last chapter to be written. Everything they've done this season has defied logic. Why not defy logic some more? All of the pieces have fallen into place for Vegas so far. It sounded crazy at the beginning of the season, and it still sounds crazy now for a different reason, but I'm picking the Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup in six games. It seems like it's the only way for the most remarkable inaugural season for any expansion team ever to end.
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