Opening Day is 10 days away! Which means it's time for my annual baseball preview! And we start it the way we always do--with the AL East. A division that should provide plenty of intrigue this season, especially with the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry coming back to a boil.
Their cycles of success haven't been in sync for a while, but that changed last season, when they both made the playoffs in the same year for the first time since 2009. And there's no reason to think it won't happen again this year. Because they're far-and-away the two best teams in the division, and clearly two of the top five in the American League.
As for which one has the edge, look for the Yankees to win their first division crown in six years. They're a chic World Series pick by a lot of people. I'm not totally willing to go that far (believe it or not, Houston managed to get better, too), but they're definitely scary (the good kind of scary). There are gonna be a lot of home runs hit in the Bronx this season.
1. New York Yankees -- Last season was a rebuilding year in the Bronx. A rebuilding year that ended in Game 7 of the ALCS. Then they went out and added the NL MVP and his 58 home runs to their already ridiculous lineup. Giancarlo and Judge might hit 100 home runs between them. And, frankly, does it really matter which one plays right and which DH's? They're going to score a lot of runs. And it's gonna be a lot of fun to watch. With a lineup this good (and a bullpen this good), the rotation doesn't need to be great. Which is why I'm glad they didn't overspend on a free agent starting pitcher. Because they didn't need to. This is the same rotation that they had at the end of last season. It was serviceable then, and it's serviceable now. And if Luis Severino's 2018 is anything like his 2017, they've got a bona fide ace. The Yankees are back to being hated by everyone else in baseball. And with good reason. Because they're gonna win a lot of games and likely keep playing deep into October.
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner-LF, Aaron Judge-RF, Greg Bird-1B, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Gary Sanchez-C, Didi Gregorius-SS, Neil Walker-2B, Brandon Drury-3B, Aaron Hicks-CF
Projected Rotation: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 94-68
2. Boston Red Sox -- Especially after the Yankees got Giancarlo, the Red Sox became obsessed with J.D. Martinez. So obsessed that they offered him a contract before Thanksgiving, then sat around waiting for him to sign it, which wasn't until right before the start of Spring Training. It somewhat makes sense on paper. They hit no home runs last season and he hit a bunch, so it seemed like a natural fit in the middle of their lineup. But...they already had three starting outfielders and a DH. Now with Martinez on board, Hanley Ramirez moves back to first, and we all know how well that's gone in the past. After two straight division titles, Boston looks like a second-place team this season. The Yankees got significantly better, and the Red Sox didn't. Martinez was their only significant signing, and their pitching staff behind ace Chris Sale really needs to bounce back. Even still, the Red Sox are one of the better teams in the AL. They're likely looking at a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Eduardo Nunez-2B, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Mookie Betts-RF, J.D. Martinez-DH, Hanley Ramirez-1B, Rafael Devers-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Christian Vazquez-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Brian Johnson
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 88-74 (Wild Card)
3. Toronto Blue Jays -- It's Year One A.B. (After Bats) North of the Border, which means the Blue Jays are going to have a completely different identity this season. Toronto hasn't torn it down completely, though. There are some new faces, but enough of their stars are back for the Blue Jays to remain relevant. Make no mistake, though. This is Josh Donaldson's team now, and I'm curious to see what Justin Smoak has in store after his breakout 2017 campaign. It was smart of them to go for it when they did a few years ago. Because they know they aren't as good as the Yankees or Red Sox. If everything goes right, they could be in the wild card hunt, but realistically, they're fighting the Orioles for third place. I give the Blue Jays a slight edge in the pitching department, so I give them the nod over Baltimore. They'll still likely finish well off the pace, though.
Projected Lineup: Devon Travis-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Justin Smoak-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Russell Martin-C, Curtis Granderson-LF, Randal Grichuk-RF, Kevin Pillar-CF, Aldemys Diaz-SS
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Jaime Garcia
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Record: 82-80
4. Baltimore Orioles -- The Orioles are stuck in the same boat they usually are. They've got loads of talent, especially offensively. But not enough. And the pitching staff just isn't good enough to keep up in a loaded AL East. I think that's why they were shopping Manny Machado throughout the offseason. They're almost certainly going to lose him as a free agent, so he might be the biggest name available as a rental at the deadline. Unless the Orioles surprise over the four months and are still in contention for a wild card. Which they could be. Because, as I said, their lineup is loaded. Especially if DH Mark Trumbo comes back healthy. I am curious how Machado's move to short is gonna go, but he's the best player on the team, so I think he'll be fine. For all the questions I ahve with their rotation, the ones I have regarding the bullpen are just as big. They need to find a closer with Zach Britton starting the season on the 60-day DL.
Projected Lineup: Adam Jones-CF, Tim Beckham-3B, Manny Machado-SS, Chris Davis-1B, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Trey Mancini-DH, Colby Rasmus-RF, Craig Gentry-LF, Caleb Joseph-C
Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Chris Tillman, Andrew Cashner, Gabriel Ynoa
Closer: Brad Brach
Projected Record: 80-82
5. Tampa Bay Rays -- They're not as bad as Florida's other team, but the Rays have no chance of winning the AL East. They went into full rebuild mode when they traded franchise cornerstone Evan Longoria to the Giants, and the recognizable names on Tampa Bay's roster are few and far between. That number could be reduced even further if, as expected, they trade Chris Archer at some point during the season. If they do trade Archer does that mean they'll go to a three-man rotation? That's really the biggest news about the Rays heading into the season. They're trying a four-man rotation all year, and sending a bunch of relievers out there on the days they need a fifth. Might as well give it a shot. Because it's going to be a long year in Tampa Bay. (The good news is very few people will pay attention if the Lightning make a deep playoff run.)
Projected Lineup: Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Denard Span-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Carlos Gomez-DH, Brad Miller-2B, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, Matt Duffy-3B, Wilson Ramos-C, Mallex Smith-RF
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, Nathan Eovaldi
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 64-98
So, it's got all the makings of a blast from the past in the AL East this season. We'll have the Yankees and Red Sox, each with a rookie manager, dueling for the division title, Toronto and Baltimore somewhere in the middle, and the Rays bringing up the rear. There's one thing we know for certain regarding the AL East, though--the rivalry is most definitely back on.
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