It's here! It's finally time for the World Baseball Classic. A lot of fans are apathetic towards the World Baseball Classic, and a lot of the players hate it, but I love the WBC. I always have.
The argument against the WBC has always been about the timing, but Spring Training is really the only time you can do it. You're not going to shut down the Major Leagues in the middle of the season, which has always been the hang up with most international baseball tournaments, so March and November are your only options. And November wouldn't work because you'd be going against football, not to mention the fact that fewer players would be willing to play after the season. So March it is. The owners and players are obviously hesitant to give up that valuable Spring Training time, but it's really the only way. (That's the same reason the World Cup of Hockey was in August, which no one seemed to mind.)
That's why one of the changes for this year's tournament was such a good idea. Now each team has a pool of "designated pitchers" that they can pull from. They can replace two of these pitchers from round to round...and the rest stay with their Major League teams until they're needed. That extra week (or two) in camp could provide the peace of mind that owners and managers are looking for when it comes to balancing the WBC and Spring Training.
So who are the favorites? Well, the Dominican Republic is the defending champions and went undefeated in 2013, so you've gotta look at them as the team to beat. Likewise, Japan has always been all in when it comes to the World Baseball Classic. All of the top players in the Central and Pacific Leagues play for the Japanese team, which always makes them dangerous. They did, after all, win the first two of these things. Puerto Rico is good, but doesn't have any home games for the first time, so we'll see if that has any impact. Then there's Cuba. They're always in the conversation in events like this, especially after a disappointing (by their standards) 2013 Classic.
I really like the Netherlands, too. Looking at their roster, it's a bit heavy on middle infielders, but I'm sure they'll figure out a way to get all of their Major League starters at-bats. I'm a little concerned about their pitching, but they've got real potential to be a sleeper team again, just like they were in 2013, when they made the semifinals.
As for Team USA, I'm a little confused by some of the roster selections. The USA picking a baseball team is like Canada picking a hockey team. There are so many options that it's hard to get it wrong. But that's exactly what the USA has done in two of the previous three editions. Only in 2009 did the USA reach the semifinals, which I think has contributed to some of the apathy surrounding the tournament. You can only choose from the guys who want to play. I get that part, but I still question some of the choices.
For example, there are two full sets of starting infielders, but only four outfielders on the entire roster! And one of them is Christian Yelich, who I'm pretty sure wouldn't have even been considered for the team if the first round wasn't being played in Miami. Sure, the Pirates' Josh Harrison can play the outfield, but that doesn't change the fact they've got a lot of big-name hitters who are going to need at-bats. Likewise, the starting pitching leaves something to be desired. Granted, with the pitch counts in the WBC, having a strong bullpen is more important than who your starter is. But I'm still not excited about the trio of Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman and Tanner Roark. Kershaw and Bumgarner said no, but Max Scherzer was willing to play for Team USA, and I'd take him over all three.
Regardless, if Jim Leyland is able to figure out how to configure his lineup and handles his bullpen properly, the United States should still be among the favorites. It won't be easy, though. Because, as the World Baseball Classic has proven, there's a lot of talent all over the world. And when you throw national pride into the equation, crazy things can happen.
Pool A: Chinese Taipei, Israel, Netherlands, South Korea-Pool A is a great example of what I'm talking about. The Taiwanese won their group in 2013, when South Korea was eliminated in the first round. But with the Koreans hosting this time, they look like a safe bet to advance. And I really like the Dutch. Like I said already, they're my sleeper team. I've got them joining the Koreans in the second round. Israel is making its debut and could easily make some noise. They've got Major League veteran Jason Marquis starting the first game, and their lineup includes the likes of Ike Davis and Ryan Lavarnway. Will they advance? Probably not. But I don't think an 0-3 record is guaranteed, either.
Pool B: Australia, China, Cuba, Japan-On paper, this pool is the most straightforward of the four. Japan and Cuba are clearly a step above the other two. Australia finished last in its pool in 2013 (which was identical to this year's Pool A, with the exception of Israel) and had to play in the qualifying tournament as a result. Not surprisingly, they dominated that qualifying tournament. They'd like to avoid having to do that again. In order to do that, they'll have to win their game against China. If Japan and Cuba advance as expected, that game will determine who has direct entry into the 2021 tournament and who's hosting a qualifier in 2020.
Pool C: Canada, Colombia, Dominican Republic, United States-In Miami, you have two of the tournament favorites in the Dominican Republic and the United States. Throw in Canada and there will be more All-Stars at Marlins Park in March than there will be in July. Colombia is making its debut, but they aren't going to be a pushover. In fact, they'll obviously have the edge in the pitching matchup in the first game, when Jose Quintana starts against the United States. Losing to Quintana makes winning the other two games imperative for the Americans. I like DR to win the pool, though. It could come down to that rivalry game between the USA and Canada for the second spot. Failing to get out of the first round would be catastrophic for the United States, though, and I don't think Jim Leyland lets that happen.
Pool D: Italy, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Venezuela-Lastly, we've got the most competitive of the four groups. I can easily see all four teams advancing from Mexico to San Diego, and I can easily see each of them finishing last and having to play a qualifier (which they'll likely dominate). It was Mexico that had to play a qualifier to get back into the main tournament, but they're playing at home, so I'm actually favoring them to get one of the two second round spots alongside Venezuela. Venezuela is loaded and is looking to redeem itself after a disappointing 2013. It's hard to pick against Puerto Rico, though. They're just as loaded as Venezuela and could easily take that second place over Mexico. Italy's no slouch, either. They made the second round over both Mexico and Canada four years ago. I don't think lightning strikes twice against this caliber of competition, though.
South Korea, the Netherlands, Japan and Cuba make up my second round pool in Tokyo, while I've got the Dominican Republic, the United States, Venezuela and Mexico heading to San Diego. My semifinalists out of Japan are the hosts and the Dutch, while I think the DR and the USA also advance to Dodger Stadium. And in the final, give me the Dominican Republic over Japan.
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