I'm not in the business of defending Roger Goodell, but in this case, I feel the need to comment. It's incredibly stupid that people are criticizing him for going to the NFC Championship Game instead of the AFC Championship Game. There wasn't any sort of ulterior motive for his decision to go to Atlanta instead of New England--and it had nothing to do with Deflategate! It was because the Falcons were hosting the NFC Championship Game and had a chance to go to the Super Bowl for the first time in 19 years! It was also the last game ever at the Georgia Dome! Meanwhile, the Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game every freakin' year! Seeing as it was physically impossible for him to go to both games, it only makes sense that he chose to go to Atlanta.
Anyway, there's no way for Goodell to avoid Brady in Houston. A lot of people want to see the Patriots win simply because they want to see how awkward it'll be when Goodell gives the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Robert Kraft. It's been compared to the situation after Super Bowl XVIII, when Pete Rozelle presented the trophy to the thorn in his side, Al Davis. I don't think it'll be quite that contentious, but it would definitely be interesting nonetheless.
Of course, Atlanta has other ideas. And you know there would be no awkwardness at all if Goodell hands the trophy to Arthur Blank. Especially since it would be the first championship in the history of a team that's as old as the Super Bowl. The Falcons may be the underdog, but they're absolutely capable of pulling off the upset.
The key for Atlanta will be making the Patriots' defense stay on the field. The Falcons have a dynamic offense, but going for the quick strike against New England is a recipe for disaster. It gives the Patriots the chance to make big plays and get the ball in Brady's hands. Long drives will also keep Brady off the field. Those drives have to end up in touchdowns, though. Because if they settle for field goals, Brady will make them pay.
Atlanta's strength is obviously the best offense in football. So, it would make sense to want to keep MVP Matt Ryan and Julio Jones on the field. Stopping Jones will obviously be the Patriots' top defensive priority. Which means the onus falls on the Falcons' great offensive line (the only unit that had the same five starters in every game) and running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. The Falcons like to use them both, and that could work in their favor, especially if the Patriots put in different personnel depending on which one's in the game.
New England's offense is set up to work quickly and this is Brady's seventh time here, so giving him too much time to work is very dangerous. Atlanta's defense will have to take a lesson from what Pittsburgh did (or, I should say, didn't do) in the AFC Championship Game. You can't sit back in a zone and give Brady the middle of the field. If you do that, he'll eat your defense for dinner, just like he did to the Steelers.
That puts the onus on the Atlanta defense, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. Although, the Falcons do have an absolute stud in Vic Beasley. Along with Dwight Freeney (the only guy they've got who's been here before), Beasley gives the Falcons a very formidable pass rush. Seeing as New England has no running game, that could actually work in the Falcons' favor. Stopping the Patriots on third down is an absolute must, as well.
Speaking of defense, New England's is the top-rated unit in football. This team has been all about Tom Brady for so long that it's easy to forget that. But this might be Belichick's best defense since the 18-1 team that lost to the Giants. And we all know what happened in that Super Bowl. What the Giants did then is what the Falcons will have to do now. Atlanta doesn't need it to be a shootout. But they do need to score enough. The Patriots are great while playing with a lead, and the only time they've given up 20 points all season was their loss to Seattle. So three touchdowns should be the target number. If the Falcons can score three times and maybe add a field goal, they should be in good shape.
Falcons (13-5) vs. Patriots (16-2): New England-So why is the pick New England then? Well, there are really two reasons. The first is that the No. 1 defense vs. No. 1 offense matchup tends to lean the defense's way. Take last year. Or the Seattle-Denver blowout. The other reason is the obvious one. New England has been on this so-called "Revenge Tour" all year. Their sole mission was to get back to the Super Bowl, win it, and force that awkward situation where Goodell has to give Kraft the trophy. Through everything, the Patriots always end up there. They were supposed to be "down" this season, yet here they are in an NFL-record ninth Super Bowl (the seventh for Bradicheck).
We'll probably see a close one. For the Patriots, a Super Bowl blowout is four points. But, unless they're playing the Giants, New England always manages to come up with big play (or plays) it needs at the end. Take two years ago, when Dan Quinn was on the Seahawks sideline for the worst play call in Super Bowl history, which sealed the Patriots' last championship. I think Atlanta has a chance, and I wouldn't consider it as much of a surprise as some others if they did manage to win it. But you know Belichick has something up his sleeve that no one has ever seen before. And you know some unsung Patriot is going to emerge as their latest Super Bowl hero. I want Atlanta to win (this is the first time in my life I've ever rooted for the Atlanta Falcons), for a number of reasons, but I think the Patriots will. 27-24.
Last Week: 1-1
Postseason: 5-5
Overall: 172-92-2
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