Saturday, January 21, 2017

NFL Playoffs -- Conference Championships

It probably shouldn't be a surprise which teams are left standing in the NFL.  New England, Pittsburgh and Green Bay are the three hottest teams in football.  Either the Steelers or Patriots will definitely see their winning streak end one game short, but the Brady/Roethlisberger/Manning streak will continue.  For the 14th time in the last 16 seasons, one of those three future Hall of Famers will be the AFC's starting quarterback in the Super Bowl.  So much for parity, huh?

In fact, Matt Ryan is the only quarterback starting this weekend that hasn't previously won a Super Bowl.  Atlanta's also the only remaining team that isn't riding a long winning streak.  But, especially after that impressive performance last week, would anybody really be shocked to see the likely MVP get a win in the last game ever at the Georgia Dome?  There's probably a lot of people out there rooting for the Falcons, too, if only to finally see somebody else in the Super Bowl.

Packers (12-6) at Falcons (12-5): Green Bay-We've seen Aaron Rodgers put the Packers on his back before.  Don't forget, Green Bay's Super Bowl title six years ago came as the No. 6 seed.  So, when he said not to panic when they were 4-6, was there really any reason to doubt him?  Now, eight wins (including an upset of the top-seeded Cowboys in Dallas) later, he's once again got the Packers one win away from the Super Bowl.

As the face of the franchise, Rodgers is obviously the most well-known and most publicized member of the Packers.  But the other part of this eight-game winning streak that's gone unmentioned (if not unnoticed) is the fact that Green Bay's defense is healthy.  And that defense has stepped up big time.  What did Odell Beckham, Jr., do in the wild card game?  What did Ezekiel Elliott do last week?  Exactly.  So for all the press Rodgers and the offense gets, it's really the Packers defense that's going to determine whether or not they're celebrating at the end of the day.

But if you want to talk about unheralded defenses, I present Vic Beasley and the Atlanta Falcons.  Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. get all the headlines for good reason.  Because this team is all about its offense.  (They led the league in scoring, after all.)  But everyone knows that it's very difficult to outscore teams in the playoffs.  Which means it's up to the defenses.  That's especially true in this game, which has the potential to be high-scoring.

They both have some bad memories from their last trip to the NFC Championship Game.  Only one will get to exorcise those demons.  And, as good as the Falcons are, I just have a feeling it'll be the Packers.  It was a 33-32 loss in Atlanta that started Green Bay's four-game losing streak that freaked everybody out.  It only seems fitting that their second trip to Atlanta will end in a second trip to the Super Bowl for Rodgers and Co.

Steelers (13-5) at Patriots (15-2): New England-Somebody please remember to test the balls before, during and after the AFC Championship Game!  As we all know, the last time the AFC Championship Game was in Foxboro, there was a little bit of a controversy that refused to go away.  Now, here we are again, as the "Tom Brady Revenge Tour" (as his fans are calling it) makes one final stop before ending in Houston.

The reason why this Patriots team is one of the best Bill Belichick has had has nothing to do with Brady, though.  New England's defense is vastly underrated.  That's the thing about this team.  Everyone is always only going to talk about Brady, but they wouldn't have gone 14-2 without the defense playing the way it did.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, found a way to win a playoff game on the road without scoring a touchdown.  Sure, they got some help from the officials (who somehow got the Super Bowl assignment), but the way they won in Kansas City will serve them well in New England.  In fact, the game plan will need to be similar to the one that was used against the Chiefs.  Move the ball with long drives and keep Brady off the field.  If they do that, they can win.  Especially because the Three B's are just as dynamic as Brady and whoever his receiver du jour is.

There's a big difference between this game and the Patriots' 27-16 win over the Steelers in Week 7: Ben Roethlisberger was injured and didn't play in that one.  As a result, I think New England's in for much more of a game than Pittsburgh gave them in mid-October.  There aren't many teams that have given the Patriots a game this season, so it'll be interesting to see what'll happen if the Steelers do keep it close.  We've seen this script with New England before, though.  You know Bradicheck will find a way to end up in Super Bowl No. 7.

So, there you have it.  While I definitely think there are scenarios where both Atlanta and Pittsburgh could win, my bet is that the Packers and Patriots will be the two teams left standing.

Last Week: 1-3
Postseason: 4-4
Overall: 171-91-2

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