Thursday, November 17, 2016

Awards Season: The MVPs

Last season, Bryce Harper became the first unanimous MVP in National League history.  This season we might see the second.  Because Kris Bryant was so far-and-away the best player for the best team in the NL that it'll be a shock if he doesn't follow up his Rookie of the Year season with an MVP award.  How good was Bryant?  Well, he led the Cubs in home runs, runs and hits while anchoring that lineup and playing a stellar third base (along with three other positions).

Bryant wasn't the runaway NL MVP all season, though.  At the All-Star Break, I had the Nationals' Daniel Murphy as the clubhouse leader.  Bryant surpassed Murphy over the second half of the season, but that doesn't make Murphy's debut season in D.C. any less spectacular.  The Nationals got a steal when they signed him away from the rival Mets, and Murphy proved to be worth every penny.

Corey Seager, meanwhile, has already taken home some hardware this week.  The NL Rookie of the Year also earned a top-three finish in the MVP voting.  He didn't win.  He likely finished third.  But Seager's the type you can easily see following in the Harper/Bryant mold and winning an MVP not too long after being named Rookie of the Year.

But they have to vote 10 deep, so who else in the NL is likely to at least be in the MVP conversation?  Well, first and foremost there's Anthony Rizzo, Bryant's partner in crime in the middle of the World Champion Cubs' lineup.  Then there's Nolan Arenado, who'll be the Team USA third baseman in the World Baseball Classic, and his Colorado teammate D.J. LeMahieu, who led the National League in hitting.  There's also Freddie Freeman, who put up ridiculously crazy numbers for a terrible Braves team.  Same thing with Joey Votto.  Starling Marte of the Pirates quietly had a great year, too.  And you've also got the pitchers.  Your Madison Bumgarners and Max Scherzers and Clayton Kershaws of the world.

My remaining ballot in the National League behind Bryant looks like this: 2. Murphy, 3. Rizzo, 4. Marte, 5. Seager, 6. LeMahieu, 7. Votto, 8. Jean Segura, 9. Arenado, 10. Scherzer.

Meanwhile, in the American League, it's a wide-open MVP race.  I think Mookie Betts is the clear favorite, but it's going to be nowhere near the runaway margin that Bryant's going to enjoy.  Betts did everything for the Red Sox this season.  He won a Gold Glove, led the Majors in total bases, and was among the AL leaders in batting average, runs, hits and total bases.  Betts perhaps flew under the radar a little, mainly because this was the season of the David Ortiz Retirement Tour.

Speaking of Ortiz, he didn't finish in the top three, but you've gotta think he collected a number of MVP votes himself.  His was, by far, the best season by a retiring player in baseball history.  The incredible thing is that even with his MVP-like numbers, Ortiz was only the second-best player on his team this season.  Mark Trumbo also deserves to be in the discussion.  Yes, it seemed like all he did was hit homers.  But his presence in the lineup was the biggest difference between the 2015 Orioles, who didn't make the playoffs, and the 2016 Orioles, who did.

We know it won't be Ortiz or Trumbo who hears his name called on MLB Network, though.  If it's not Betts, it'll be either Mike Trout or Jose Altuve.  

Many people don't know this but it's actually an American League rule that Mike Trout must finish among the top two in MVP voting.  In his first four seasons, he's been named MVP once and finished second the other three times (rightfully so each time).  Now it looks like he'll be making it four second-place MVP finishes.  Trout put up his traditional ridiculous numbers and the Angels once again missed the playoffs.  But that's what happens when your entire team consists of one guy.

You could argue that Altuve is a one-man team, too.  And the Astros were a slightly better one-man team than the Angels in 2016.  Their diminutive leader, who's quickly developing a reputation as one of the best overall players in baseball, had his typical year.  In Altuve's case that means winning a batting title and leading the Majors in hits while playing in 161 games.  The days of a player appearing in all 162 games is long gone, so that 161 number really stands out.  Oh, and did I mention that Altuve won the second base Silver Slugger?  Houston didn't make the playoffs, which might hurt him.  But then again, the Angels didn't make the playoffs, either.  Another point that works in Betts' favor.

This one was much harder than the NL, but here's how my AL MVP ballot would look: 1. Betts, 2. Altuve, 3. Trout, 4. David Ortiz, 5. Mark Trumbo, 6. Carlos Beltran, 7. Miguel Cabrera, 8. Zach Britton, 9. Edwin Encarnacion, 10. Robinson Cano.

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