For the first time since December, we've got a full NFL Sunday this weekend. A lot has changed since then. For starters, Peyton Manning is looking for someone to watch the games with him. Maybe he should call Tom Brady. He'll be available. Starting next week, they'll be able to watch games in LA again. But the Rams are away this week for some reason.
With the NFL back in full swing, it's also time for my weekly picks segment. Now, in case you're new to the blog, here's how I do my picks. First, I normally don't post them until Saturday night/Sunday morning. I do pick the Thursday night game, but that seems kinda early to reveal the entire slate, which is why I wait until the Sunday games. The only exception (other than Week 1) is Thanksgiving.
Also, I know a lot of people make their picks against the spread. I don't. Why? Because the spread doesn't matter! If you win but don't cover the spread, you still win. Just like if you cover the spread and lose, it still counts as a loss in the standings. And they determine who makes the playoffs based on your actual record. Not your record against the spread!
So, with all that out of the way, it's time to make my selections for the first 16 of the 256 NFL games we've got in store this season.
Panthers at Broncos: Denver-We start the season with the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970. And Denver, of course, begins its title defense with Trevor Semian at quarterback. Carolina has designs on getting back to the Super Bowl, and they're actually favored in this game. But they were favored in the Super Bowl, too, and the Broncos' defense completely ate them up. If Von Miller and Co. play like that, it doesn't matter who's under center. And, with the Panthers upset they're opening on the road, coupled with the Broncos raising their championship banner, I see the same result that we had in February.
Buccaneers at Falcons: Atlanta-The Braves aren't the only Atlanta team that's moving out of a venue that's only 20 years old. The Falcons begin their final season in the Georgia Dome against Tampa Bay. Atlanta was so good at the start of last season, then fell off big time. I'm still not really sure how. Because they look like a playoff team. They get the Week 1 home win.
Vikings at Titans: Minnesota-Remember the ridiculous NFL debut Marcus Mariota had last year in Week 1? If only the rest of the Titans' season had been like that. Minnesota did have a dream season in 2015, only to see it turn into a nightmare with that playoff loss to Seattle. Now the Vikings enter the 2016 campaign looking for replacement for Teddy Bridgewater. Fortunately, they get the Titans in their opener. When they open the new stadium against the Packers next week, though, things could get interesting.
Chargers at Chiefs: Kansas City-Kansas City is one of the teams I like the most entering this season. The Chiefs had such a brutal stretch at the start last year, which is why they were just 1-5 before ending the season on a 10-game winning streak. This year's slate is much more favorable. San Diego usually gives them trouble, but I like the Chiefs here.
Raiders at Saints: New Orleans-An Oakland win here wouldn't totally surprise me. The Raiders are going to be a tough game all season long. Except they're playing early against the Saints offense. And I'm not sure Oakland's capable of putting up enough points to keep pace with New Orleans. Especially in the Superdome.
Bengals at Jets: Cincinnati-This is one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 1. How good are the Jets? We'll get to find out right away against one of the best teams in the AFC. If they pull off the win, expect them to be a playoff contender. I'm not sure they will, though. Cincinnati is a veteran team that knows how to win (in the regular season at least). Marvin Lewis will have his bunch ready, and they'll avoid the upset.
Browns at Eagles: Philadelphia-On the other end of the spectrum, we've got Browns-Eagles. The big news out of Cleveland is that they made Robert Griffin III a captain. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is sticking with Sam Bradford, at least for now, over another No. 2 overall pick, Carson Wentz. I'd say this one is a toss up, but it's really not. The Eagles are a superior team, and they're playing at home.
Packers at Jaguars: Green Bay-Teams playing Jacksonville can't just assume they're going to have an easy week and virtually guaranteed victory anymore. The Jaguars are going to give some teams plenty of trouble, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a loss to Jacksonville cost someone a playoff berth. With all that being said, though, the Green Bay Packers won't have that problem.
Bills at Ravens: Buffalo-Earlier this evening, I took my test for Sports Jeopardy!, and I got a question about the Ravens wrong. I'm still upset about it. Anyway, chalk this one up as my upset special for the week. The Bills are going to surprise some people. I really want to see what Rex and Rob have cooked up to mess with the Baltimore offense.
Bears at Texans: Houston-When we last saw the Houston Texans, they were in the midst of being thoroughly dismantled by the Chiefs in the wild card game. That was a long time ago. And they now have Brock Osweiler running the offense to complement that incredible J.J. Watt-led defense. The Bears will be the first team to see the new-look Texans first hand.
Dolphins at Seahawks: Seattle-One of the NFL's best team hosts one of the worst in what should be one of the easiest Week 1 games to call. The Seahawks got off to a slow start last season, so it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that they lose here, but the Dolphins should be making the long trip home from one corner of the country to literally the other with an 0-1 record.
Giants at Cowboys: Giants-These two play their annual Week 1 tilt, but this time we mix it up a little and play it during the day. Dallas is favored, but I'm not sure why. Everyone saw how badly they fell apart without Tony Romo last year, and now they've got Mark Sanchez. The Giants always play well in Dallas and enter the season healthy. I give them the nod.
Lions at Colts: Indianapolis-Detroit coach Jim Caldwell takes on his former team (the one that fired him after a 2-14 season that was completely not his fault) for the first time. And he does it with his current team in a state of flux. We'll get to see just how bad the 2016 Lions are potentially going to be against a Colts team that can't lose to a team like Detroit if they want to make the playoffs.
Patriots at Cardinals: Arizona-Even if Tom Brady was playing, this was going to be a very difficult game for New England. They go on the road to take on a team that a lot of experts are predicting could end up in the Super Bowl. Nothing against Jimmy Garroppolo, but if it was going to be tough with Brady, it's going to be even tougher without him. I think the loss here is pretty much the consensus for those who've said the Patriots will still go 3-1 or 2-2 without the Deflator.
Steelers at Redskins: Pittsburgh-I've gotta admit, this is a strange selection for the first half of the Monday night doubleheader. Yes, they were both playoff teams last season. But there are so many better matchups than Steelers-Redskins. I fully expect Pittsburgh to win this game pretty easily.
Rams at 49ers: Los Angeles-Writing "Los Angeles" there felt really weird, but it also felt right. The Rams have returned home. Except the first NFL game in LA since Christmas Eve 1994 won't actually be until next week. Instead, they renew their West Coast rivalry with the 49ers in the northern part of the state. When the NFL does officially return to the City of Angels, the home team will be 1-0.
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