My Yankees season tickets arrived today. There was also that historic exhibition game between the Rays and the Cuban National Team in Havana. You know what all this means? Baseball's getting close! In fact, it's less than two weeks until Opening Day.
Since I'm already talking about the Yankees and Rays, I think it makes sense to start my annual six-part baseball preview in the AL East. This division figures to be as competitive as usual this season. The Blue Jays are the defending division champs, and they show no signs of slowing down. Expect their trade deadline acquisition, David Price, left as a free agent, but stayed in the division with Boston. The Red Sox have been a last-place disappointment in each of the last two seasons, but they think bringing in Price to bolster the starting rotation will bring them back to the top. Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying the opposite approach. They're trying to win games from the ninth inning forward instead of the other way around.
I think the division title will probably come down to those three, but it'll be very close. And it's not as if the Rays and Orioles are that far behind, either. Chris Archer's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Tampa Bay's going to win a lot of games that he pitches. How many of those come against those top three could determine which two go to the playoffs and which one doesn't.
1. New York Yankees: Last season, nobody expected anything from the Yankees and their "mediocre" starting staff. All they did was make the playoffs. Sure, they struggled down the stretch and got shut out in the wild card game, but injuries and an overworked bullpen were the big reasons for that. The rotation wasn't great, but it wasn't a problem, either. This year, they've got six guys for five spots, so the rotation is theoretically deeper. But the strength of this team is the bullpen. After seeing the Royals win a pennant, then a World Series behind a dominant bullpen, the Yankees went out and made the best part of the team even better. Aroldis Chapman is suspended for the first 30 games, so he won't make his debut until May, which could actually be a good thing. Because the Yankees' relievers ran out of gas last September. As for the position players, yes a bunch of them are old and fragile. And, no, you can't absolutely expect A-Rod and Teixeira to have the same type of year they had in 2015. But they also made some great additions to get both younger and better at the same time. I love the addition of Starlin Castro, which solves the second base problem that has persisted since Robinson Cano left. Aaron Hicks will be tremendous, too. Personally, I'd trade Brett Gardner and Ivan Nova to both alleviate the starting pitching situation and give Hicks a place to play, but I think he'll get plenty of opportunities. The Greg Bird injury was a blow since they don't have a backup first baseman now, but between Ackley and Headley, they'll be OK to give Teixeira days off. He can't get hurt for an extended period of time again, though. If he does, then you flip one of the starting pitchers for a first baseman.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Brett Gardner-LF, Alex Rodriguez-DH, Mark Teixeira-1B, Carlos Beltran-RF, Brian McCann-C, Chase Headley-3B, Didi Gregorius-SS, Starlin Castro-2B
Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia
Closer: Aroldis Chapman (Suspended), Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Toronto Blue Jays: After years of everyone hyping them as the next big thing, the Toronto Blue Jays finally came through and won a division title last season. Toronto has always been able to outhit you, and last season they got the pitching to back it up. When they got David Price, they knew it was a rental, but it was one that worked out nicely. And this season, they'll get a full year from Marcus Stroman (who still really bugs me with that single-digit number). They also upgraded the bullpen with the addition of former Nationals closer Drew Storen. The most important thing for the Blue Jays, though, is that the best lineup in baseball returns essentially in tact. The only change is in left field, where midseason addition Ben Revere is gone. However, they had the built-in replacement in Michael Saunders, who was expected to be their center fielder last season, but missed the entire year due to injury. When they got him last year, I though Saunders was a great fit with this team, and I still do. And with Kevin Pillar fully ingrained as the starting center fielder, moving Saunders to left was the only logical solution. And he gives them another ridiculous power bat. Expect the homers to fly out of SkyDome once again. Will the pitching be able to keep pace and lead the Blue Jays back to the playoffs?
Projected Lineup: Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Josh Donaldson-3B, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Chris Colabello-1B, Russell Martin-C, Michael Saunders-LF, Kevin Pillar-CF, Ryan Goins-2B
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Boston Red Sox: In 2015, the Red Sox made a big splash by acquiring Pablo Sandoval to play third base and Hanley Ramirez to play left field. That went about as well as most people expected. Hanley had no interest in playing left field and was incredibly bad at it, resulting in his relegation to "injured" by the end of the season. This season, they'll try Hanley at first base. Personally, I think the best solution would be to put Hanley at third and Panda at first, but we'll see how this works out. They'll only need to figure it out for one year, anyway, since David Oritz has already announced he's retiring after the season. Boston's overreliance on high-priced veterans has created a bit of a problem, though. It's blocked their talented young players from cracking into the lineup. Brock Holt, for example, can play anywhere and made the All-Star team last year. He's stuck being Ben Zobrist, though, since they don't have a place to play him (because they already have another starter everywhere he plays). Their biggest problem last season, though, wasn't the lineup. It was the rotation. They expected to get Jon Lester back, but didn't, leaving a big hole they were never able to fill. So they overspent for David Price, which didn't surprise anyone. They needed a big-name starter and Price certainly fits the bill. He also knows the division, having pitched in Tampa Bay and Toronto. The addition of Price will instantly make the Red Sox pitching staff better. The bullpen will be better, too, with former Braves All-Star Craig Kimbrel taking over as the closer.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Hanley Ramirez-1B, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Rusney Castillo-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Blake Swihart-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: David Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays: What's the slight difference that gives Tampa Bay the edge over Baltimore in my book? The pitching staff. Chris Archer is a legitimate ace, and they've got some solid arms behind him, especially Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi. Their bullpen will be in rough shape until closer Brad Boxberger comes off the DL in June, but the Rays team I watched beat Cuba today will hold their own with anybody. They'll need to hit, though. And Tampa Bay certainly looks like they'll be better than last year in that regard. Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison will add significantly more pop to a lineup that's already anchored by Evan Longoria and James Loney. They also have arguably the best center fielder in the game in Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays' defense will do a good job of preventing runs, provided the pitchers don't give up too many, and the offense is able to provide some. They're nowhere near as good as the team Joe Maddon took to the World Series eight years ago. I highly doubt they're good enough to make the playoffs, too. But they're not going to be bad. In fact, I think it'll be the Tampa Bay Rays that determine who wins the AL East. It won't be them, though.
Projected Lineup: Brad Miller-SS, Steven Souza Jr.-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Logan Morrison-DH, Logan Forsythe-2B, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Rene Rivera-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez
Closer: Brad Boxberger (DL), Alex Colome
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have two bona fide superstars in Manny Machado and Adam Jones, as well as a very good catcher in Matt Wieters. And Chris Davis re-signing definitely bolstered the lineup. That would've been an incredibly deep hole to fill. Pedro Alvarez to DH and Mark Trumbo to play right seem like odds fits, especially since Trumbo's best position is DH, a position it'll be virtually impossible for him to play with Alvarez and Davis both there (and you can't really have Alvarez play third, seeing as Machado's entrenched over there). As a result, right field is the only place to put him. Fortunately, Adam Jones covers a lot of ground defensively. My real concern with Baltimore is the pitching staff, though. They haven't had a marquee starter in quite some time, yet managed to get away with it during that run to a division title two years ago. Yovani Gallardo, who they picked up from Texas in the offseason, is the closest thing they have to one. Gallardo replaced Wei-Yin Chen in the rotation, which made it a little bit stronger, but it's really more of a wash. Should Dylan Bundy arrive this season and prove to be everything people expect he will, my opinion of the Orioles' rotation will change, but it's because of that rotation that I give Tampa Bay the slight edge over Baltimore. The bullpen should be fine. Zach Britton, Darren O'Day and T.J. McFarland are all back.
Projected Lineup: J.J. Hardy-SS, Manny Machado-3B, Chris Davis-1B, Adam Jones-CF, Mark Trumbo-RF, Pedro Alvarez-DH, Matt Wieters-C, Nolan Reimold-LF, Jonathan Schoop-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Closer: Zach Britton
Projected Record: 74-88
With the Yankees and Blue Jays arguably just as strong on paper as last season's playoff teams and expected improvement in Boston, the AL East should be up for grabs. One key injury or one big trade deadline addition could be the difference between last place and winning the division. You could easily take my projected standings and flip them upside down and end up being right. The five teams are thisclose.
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