Thursday, September 10, 2015

Football Preview, Part 2

It's definitely weird to talk football using regular numbers instead of Roman numerals.  But here we go with Part 2 of the Joe Brackets 2015 football preview.  Today a look at the NFC, which, like the AFC, should see a lot of repeat contenders this season.  Because, if it's possible, Green Bay, Seattle and Dallas all got better.  And they were the three best teams in the NFC last season!

Of course, everything goes through Seattle, as the Seahawks look to become the first NFC team ever to play in three consecutive Super Bowls.  A lot of people are picking Seattle to make it three straight NFC titles, but there's a reason why no team has made it to three straight Super Bowls since that incredible run by the Bills in the early 90s.  Seattle has gotten lucky over the past two seasons in that they've been remarkably injury-free.

But you know the Packers are going to be coming after them hard, especially after last year's NFC Championship Game.  And speaking of rough playoff losses, I'm still not sure how that wasn't a catch for Dez Bryant!  So, all three of the top teams have plenty of motivation coming into the season.  So do the NFC South teams.  Nobody in that division finished .500 last year, with Carolina winning the division at 7-8-1.  The Panthers want to prove that they actually belong in the conversation, while the Saints are looking to turn it around.

NFC East: If the cycle holds, this is the year for a Giants-Patriots Super Bowl.  I don't think anybody actually thinks that'll happen, though.  There are too many question marks surrounding the Giants, and they'll be lucky to get a wild card.  Offense is usually the problem, but Eli now has LeGarrette Blount and two of best wide receivers in football, so they're actually set on that side of the ball for a change.  But who knows when Nine Fingers will be back and how good he'll be when he does?  (Since he won't play at Dallas, I put Week 6 at Philadelphia the first time an opposing team plays Katy Perry's "Firework," provided he's actually playing by then.)  The Giants are the third-best team in the NFC East.  The team most likely to challenge Dallas for the division title in Philadelphia.  As long as Sam Bradford stays in one piece.  But even if he doesn't Mark Sanchez is plenty capable.  I like the Eagles to snag a wild card.  Washington, meanwhile, needs to realize the RG3 experiment is a bust and move on.  The Redskins remain the fourth-best team in the division.

NFC North: In the NFC North, it's the Packers and everybody else.  Green Bay isn't just the class of the division.  They're among the class of the league.  Even with Jordy Nelson injured, they'll be fine.  They've got the best quarterback in the game.  Detroit joined Green Bay in the playoffs last season, but I don't think they will again.  The Lions aren't as good this year, mainly because of their key losses on defense.  It'll be up to Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush and Megatron to keep them in games (and maybe win some).  Minnesota gets Adrian Peterson back and has finally found a QB in Teddy Bridgewater.  A lot of people are calling the Vikings a sleeper playoff team, but I just don't see it.  I think they're 7-9 at best.  Those same experts are calling for a last-place finish from the Chicago Bears.  I know that I tend to overrate the Bears every year, but they were smart to scoop up John Fox practically the second he was fired by the Broncos.  He'll do for Chicago what Andy Reid did for Kansas City.  Does it mean 10-6 and a wild card?  I don't know.  But the Bears will definitely be an improved team from the one we saw last year.

NFC South: Oh, NFC South.  I know you're not as bad as you pretended to be last season.  This year you don't have to play the AFC North in the interconference games, so those automatic losses to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati won't happen.  As a result, all four records should improve.  Carolina is favored to repeat as division champions, and I can see why.  Cam Newton is the real deal, and that defense is first-rate.  Remember, they won a playoff game last season.  However, while I think they'll return to the playoffs, I don't think they'll win their third straight NFC South title.  I can't pinpoint an exact reason why, but I really like the Saints to win the division this year.  I'd like to say that Lovie Smith and the Bucs are going to turn it around, but I just can't.  And that's because they drafted Jamies Winston over Marcus Mariota.  Winston's got bust written all over him, and he really needed to get out of Florida.  So, I think we'll see another last-place finish for Tampa Bay.  Barely ahead of them will be Atlanta.  I'm just not sure the Falcons are much better than last season's 6-10 team.

NFC West: Last season, this was arguably the best division in the NFC.  This year, I expect Seattle to dominate it.  The Seahawks' main challenge will be to earn home field for the playoffs again.  If the road to the Super Bowl goes through CenturyLink Field for the third straight season, it'll be awfully tough for any visiting team.  Even if they only realized they have a football team three years ago, the 12th Man definitely makes a difference.  In addition, Arizona and San Francisco have both regressed.  The Cardinals fell apart last year after Carson Palmer went down, going from 10-1 to a wild card loss in Charlotte.  The 49ers, meanwhile, have entered into rebuilding mode.  Everyone knew Jim Harbaugh had worn out his welcome and they needed a change, but I still don't know the name of the guy they hired to replace him.  I know it's a system guy, which they did to ease the transition and for consistency within the organization, but I doubt it's going to work.  And Frank Gore's gone.  At least with the Super Bowl in Santa Clara, 49ers fans are guaranteed to see a playoff game.  Because they won't be playing in one.  Then there's the Rams.  The LA flirtation will last throughout the season and could become a distraction, but I hope it doesn't.  Because I think this team has a real shot at a wild card.  Especially now that they've made the trade for Nick Foles, who doesn't have anywhere near the injury history of Sam Bradford that really derailed his Rams career.  At the very least, teams won't want to play the Rams.  With the NFC West weakened, a .500 record and second place are definite possibilities.

So, when it's all said and done, I think the NFC division winners will be Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle, with Philadelphia and Carolina joining them as wild cards.  I'll say we see a Packers-Seahawks repeat in the NFC title game, but this time, I think it'll be in Lambeu, which will be good for the Packers.  Because that will be the difference that gets them to the Super Bowl.

My AFC Champion is Indianapolis, which means I've got us set up for a Packers-Colts Super Bowl.  And I can't think of a better way to celebrate the Super Bowl's 50th anniversary than by having the team that won the first one also take the 50th one.  I see very few weaknesses in Green Bay.  That's why I see the Vince Lombardi Trophy coming home to Titletown for the fifth time (the day after Brett Favre is elected to the Hall of Fame).

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