After two weeks of waiting, Super Bowl XLIX is finally upon us. The talk will finally move away from Tom Brady's balls and Richard Sherman's baby and on to what's going to happen on the field. I don't want to say we've got a great game in store, because we said that last year and we all saw what happened, but I'm certain that's what we all want.
As usual, I've heard all of the reasons why both teams are "definitely" going to win. Some think Deflategate was the best thing possible for the Patriots and it'll what they rally around as they win their first title in 10 years. Others think the Seahawks' "Legion of Boom" is one of those all-time defenses that will etch its name into the history books by shutting down Brady and leading Seattle to its second straight championship. If the experts are to be believed, neither team can possibly lose. But we know one of them has to.
Of course, whether or not Richard Sherman decides to play is a big question that will hover over the game until kickoff. If it was me, I don't think there's much of a choice. You play in the Super Bowl. But that's me.
Anyway, Sherman is a key piece to that Seattle defense. Let's face it, the Legion of Boom is pretty much nameless except for the three All-Pros in the secondary (I don't even know the other corner's name). If Sherman's girlfriend does go into labor and he does decide not to play, that's a huge swing in New England's favor. Because it'll add to the pressure on Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. If you figure they set up in a normal formation (which I'm not completely convinced they will), the cornerbacks will be on the wide receivers, with Sherman lined up against Julian Edelman. If Brady does what most quarterbacks do and stays away from Sherman, that effectively takes Edelman out of the game and puts the pressure on the Thomas/Chancellor combo against Gronkowski, who's obviously Brady's favorite receiver. That's why, if I'm Pete Carroll, I mix things up a little, maybe go nickel, and put your best cover corner (Sherman) opposite New England's best receiver, who just happens to be the tight end Gronkowski.
But if Sherman doesn't play, that means you're relying on both Chancellor and Thomas to help out on coverage on the outside, as well as trying to handle Gronkowski. That's why whether or not he plays is actually a huge potential storyline. Because if Richard Sherman's not on the field, the Legion of Boom is nowhere near as intimidating. It's also advantage Patriots. Big time.
Everyone has been talking about the New England offense against the Seattle defense as the key matchup of the game, but I think it's the other way around. The Seahawks' defense is so dominant that a lot of people forget how good their offense is. And New England's defense is much better than it has been in recent seasons. That's why, to me, the key to the game is going to be when the Seahawks have the ball.
Russell Wilson has plenty of weapons at his disposal. New England's corners are just as good as Seattle's. The Seahawks might have Sherman, but the Patriots have Darrelle Revis. Except I like the Jermaine Kearse-Brandon Browner matchup a little more than the Brandon LaFell-Byron Maxwell matchup. I also think Seattle's safeties are much better than New England's, which means Luke Willson has a chance to have a big impact on this game.
The running game is also going to be a big key. New England's running back-by-committee thing worked during the regular season, but you know that in the Super Bowl, they're going to count on Tom Brady to win it for them, and the Seahawks know that, too. And it's also not a stretch to say that Brady's not the most mobile of quarterbacks out there. He isn't Peyton Manning, but he isn't Cam Newton, either. Wilson, on the other hand, loves to run and is good at it. That's a weapon in the Seahawks' game that the Patriots simply do not have.
I'm also kind of rooting for Marshawn Lynch to have a big game and be named MVP, simply because of how wonderfully awkward it would be when Bob Costas tried to interview him and Lynch didn't say anything. But all kidding aside, the Patriots' ability to stop Marshawn Lynch will be crucial. If they can't stop the run, especially on third down, it's going to be a long night for the New England defense. Remember when Denver played Green Bay and Terrell Davis ran all over Gilbert Brown, who was too fat to move by the middle of the third quarter? Well, Vince Wilfork and Gilbert Brown are roughly the same size. Just sayin'.
One last thing to remember: Brady might have built his reputation on fourth quarter comebacks, but Wilson is no slouch in that area either. Take the NFC Championship Game for example. Yeah, I'd say he's pretty clutch, too.
So how do I see things playing out? I agree that the ball thing won't be a distraction for the Patriots one bit. But I also don't think it'll "guarantee" them a victory. That's underestimating Seattle. And the Seahawks probably feel like they've got something to prove, too. After all, they're the defending champions and they're the ones coming into the Super Bowl on an eight-game winning streak. Yet they're a one-point underdog? That's not going to sit well with the Legion of Boom and an underrated Seattle offense.
You can bet Pete Carroll's been studying up on what the Giants did both times. Eli and Coughlin won't be around, but I expect the result to be similar. Four of Bradichick's five Super Bowls have been decided by three points. The other was decided by four. Why should this one be any different? The Seattle defense makes a big play late to seal the Seahawks' second straight Super Bowl title.
Seahawks 23, Patriots 20
Conference Championships: 1-1
Playoffs: 5-5
Season: 166-99-1
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