But there was something just as significant over the weekend that, because it was on Fox Sports 1, a lot of people might've missed. The draw for the Women's World Cup was held, and the U.S. landed in the proverbial "Group of Death" with Sweden, Australia and Nigeria. That may not be as big a deal as some people are making it out to be, though. The top two automatically advance to the knockout round, as do the four best third-place teams out of the six groups. That means the top-ranked Americans realistically only need one win to advance. And if they win the group, which still seems likely, the don't face another group winner until the semifinals.
Sweden, which is ranked fifth in the world, was mad that they were passed over for a seed by sixth-ranked Brazil, and they ended up with the Americans as a result. But FIFA's logic for the seeding actually made sense. There are eight European teams in the tournament, and Sweden's the third ranked European team. By only seeding two (Germany and France), they were able to put all of the remaining teams in the same European pot, which made figuring out the pots a lot easier. And it's not like seeding Brazil over Sweden was the same as seeding Belgium and Switzerland over the Netherlands and Italy for the men's World Cup, when they did base it (stupidly so) only on world ranking. I think the seedings were appropriate. Besides, E1 plays D2 in the round of 16, so if that ends up being a Brazil-Sweden matchup, the Swedes will get a chance to prove they should've been seeded over the Brazilians.
Anyway, on to the groups. Canada, as the host country, was automatically placed in position A1, as is the case in every major FIFA tournament. Joining the Canadians in Group A will be China, New Zealand and the Netherlands. Not exactly a who's who of women's soccer. But as hosts, I guess Canada is entitled to having a favorable draw. They'll get through no problem and China should finish second in the group. Third place will be up for grabs between the other two.
One of the two groups where third place might not advance is Group B, where two-time champion Germany was gifted with Norway and lightweights Thailand and Ivory Coast. Thailand is ranked 30th in the world, while Ivory Coast is the lowest-ranked team in the tournament at 64. So, basically, this should be a cakewalk for the two European teams, which have combined to win three of the first six Women's World Cups. Winning the group will be extremely important, though. Because second place plays second in Group F, which will probably be either France or England.
In Group C, we've got defending champion Japan, along with three teams making their World Cup debuts--Switzerland, Cameroon and Ecuador. This group might be even softer than Group B. The Swiss are the best of the other three teams, so I've got them finishing second. Ecuador was the last team to get in, beating Trinidad & Tobago in the CONMEBOL-CONCACAF playoff, so let's see if that gives them any momentum heading into the World Cup. Ecuador and Cameroon are ranked 49 and 51 in the world, so it should be a good game when those two play.
I think it's some sort of FIFA rule that the United States, Sweden and Nigeria end up in the same group for the Women's World Cup. This is the fourth straight time (and fifth time in seven Women's World Cups) that the U.S. is in the same group as Sweden and the fourth time in five World Cups that the U.S. is with Nigeria. The three of them are together for the third time in four World Cups. (The fourth member of this group is usually North Korea, which was barred from competing this time after what happened in Germany, so this time it's Australia instead.)
It's fairly obvious that Group D is by far the strongest of the six groups, and it also seems likely that this group will almost certainly have three teams reach the knockout stage. The U.S. and Sweden will probably finish 1-2 in whatever order, while Australia is going to be the most dangerous third-place team in the round of 16. If they were in a different group, I'd really like Nigeria's chances of advancing, but it'll be really tough for them to knock off one of the three top 10 teams they'll be facing.
Group E is Brazil, Spain, South Korea and Costa Rica. This is a great opportunity for the Koreans, who've only been in the Women's World Cup once before, and the Spanish, who are making their debuts. The Brazilians are going to win the group. They're by far the strongest of these four teams. But the battle for second place is going to be interesting. Although, it ultimately might not matter that much, since I think both South Korea and Spain will advance.
Lastly, there's Group F, which has the strongest 1-2 punch outside of the USA and Sweden. France, which finished fourth in 2011, is ranked fourth in the world, while rival England, which has been to the quarterfinals in each of the last three Women's World Cups, is ranked seventh. Unless something crazy happens, they'll be the top two teams. The real question is who's going to win the Mexico-Colombia game? Because I think the winner there takes third place and goes to the round of 16. Brazil 2014 was a great World Cup for the CONMEBOL teams. Will Canada 2015 be the same for CONCACAF? If so, things are looking good for Mexico.
So, my round of 16 matchups, based on what teams I have advancing are:
- China (A2) vs. Switzerland (C2)
- United States (D1) vs. Spain (E3)
- Germany (B1) vs. New Zealand (A3)
- England (F1) vs. South Korea (E2)
- Brazil (E1) vs. Sweden (D2)
- Japan (C1) vs. Mexico (F3)
- Norway (B2) vs. France (E2)
- Canada (A1) vs. Australia (D3)
- China vs. United States
- Germany vs. England
- Sweden vs. Japan
- France vs. Canada
- United States vs. Germany
- Japan vs. Canada
- A United States vs. Japan rematch
- The United States of America
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