OK. So...raise your hand if you thought this would be the World Series matchup at the start of the season. I'll even give you the start of the playoffs. If you said "Yes," you're either a liar or you should've gone to Vegas and cashed in. But yet here we are. The Giants and the Royals. America's newest darlings against the team that never loses in October. Well, one of them's got to lose.
One of these two is guaranteed to set a record with their 12th win of the postseason. Of course, the Royals have already set a record by starting 8-0, and they've actually won 11 straight playoff games dating back to Game 5 of the 1985 World Series. But that's nothing to the Giants. They've never lost a playoff series under Bruce Bochy. Nine postseason rounds and counting. San Francisco hasn't lost a postseason round since 2003, while the Royals haven't dropped a postseason round in 30 years. Something's obviously got to change. Either the Royals will cap this remarkable run with an unlikely championship or the Giants will affirm their status as a modern baseball dynasty by winning their third title in five years. (I actually went and did some research today and found that only eight Giants have been active for all three World Series--Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and six pitchers.)
Before I move on to the analysis and pick, some more fun facts. This is the second all-wild card series, and the other one also involved the Giants (in 2002 against the Angels). It's the first World Series in a full 162-game season in which neither participant won at least 90 games. And, this one's obvious, but they're the first wild card teams to make the World Series since the Wild Card Games were added in 2012.
Anyway, on to the breakdown. I'll start with this interminable wait we've had to endure since the matchup was locked in last Thursday. We've been waiting so long that Madison Bumgarner, who started the Giants' last game, will be on regular rest for Game 1. I can't remember there being this long of a wait between the end of the LCS and the start of the World Series since 2002...when we were rewarded with an entertaining seven-game classic.
Frankly, I was a little worried about the wait. If the Giants hadn't won Game 5, that would've been bad news for the Royals. Because the team that has the long layoff after their LCS while the other one goes deep has traditionally not done well in the Series. In 2012, the Giants and Cardinals played seven while the Tigers swept the Yankees. Then the Giants swept the Tigers in the World Series. The same thing happened in 2007 when the Red Sox beat the Rockies and 2006 when the Cardinals beat the Tigers. Detroit and Colorado won a total of one game in those three Fall Classics. However, with both teams getting a similar layoff, there's no advantage for San Francisco there. Instead, I think it's more likely we see a series more like 2002.
San Francisco does have the advantage in Game 1, though. Madison Bumgarner will be making his third career World Series start. He's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his World Series career. And both those starts came on the road. James Shields did get the win in Game 2 in 2008, which was Tampa Bay's only victory over the Phillies, but the Giants certainly have the edge in the battle of the aces. The fact that both of Bumgarner's previous World Series starts can't be overlooked, either. He's also 2-0 on the road this postseason, with that shutout over the Pirates in the Wild Card Game.
There is an X factor I'm curious about, though. The Giants, who went a combined 8-1 in 2010 and 2012, had home field advantage in both series. They won both games in San Francisco each time. This year they're starting on the road. Will that make a difference? I think it might. Because going home tied 1-1 or down 0-2 is much different than going on the road up 2-0.
I also wonder who will DH for the Giants. Travis Ishikawa's not an outfielder. So, if it were up to me, Ishikawa would DH and Juan Perez would play left, even though Michael Morse seems like the obvious choice to DH. Speaking of DHs, I'm so happy for all of the Royals, but Billy Butler especially. He's been in Kansas City the longest. There's no chance Butler will play the field in San Francisco (it would make absolutely no sense to have him play first and take Hosmer out of the lineup, and that's the only possible position Butler could play). But the Royals only lose their No. 5 hitter in three of the seven games, and they get Butler back for Games 6 and 7. That could be important.
But if there's anything we've learned over the last month, it's that Kansas City isn't reliant on Billy Butler's bat. The Royals are a fun team to watch. Because they can win games in any number of ways. They hit the fewest home runs in the American League, but in the playoffs, they've used the long ball as a weapon. And it hasn't just been one guy. Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, Escobar, Cain, they've all gotten involved. Then there's the element of speed, which is something the Royals have that few other teams do. That's how they won the AL Wild Card Game, and they might be able to (literally) steal a run or two late in a close game. With that unhittable bullpen, those manufactured runs could be the difference.
When it comes to manufacturing runs, though, no team does it better than the Giants. This team is built for October, which is why they thrive this time of the year. San Francisco was one out away from losing Game 2 against Washington, put together three straight hits to tie the game, then won it on Brandon Belt's home run in the 18th. That was their last homer for six games (of which they won four) before finally breaking out for four, including Travis Ishikawa's pennant-clinching walk-off shot, in the NLCS Game 5 clincher. Plus, they've got Bumgarner, the best pitcher in the series, and that experience can't be discounted.
Assuming Bumgarner wins Game 1, it's imperative the Royals take Game 2. Because if they don't, the series won't be long, and the Giants will do something they didn't do in 2010 or 2012...clinch the championship on their home field. If we have a deep series that goes back to Kansas City, though, that favors the Royals. You know that crowd will be electric in Games 6 and 7, and having the last at-bat will prove vital for a team that simply refuses to lose. It would also give the Royals a chance to clinch all four rounds at home.
Common sense says to pick the Giants. But there's just something about this Royals team. They don't know what the hell they're doing, and it's fantastic to watch. There's only one way for this ride to end. Kansas City in seven.
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