I read an article today that I didn't agree with. With the baseball season halfway over and the trade deadline approaching, it's time for teams to make a decision about whether or not they think they have a chance to win this year and either go all-in for a playoff run or become sellers at the deadline and try to build for next year. The article suggested that both the Mets and Yankees should be sellers at this year's trade deadline.
It's completely ridiculous to think that the Yankees should be sellers, especially since they most definitely aren't going to be. And you can't blame them. The AL East is there for the taking (even if it is a study in varying degrees of mediocre), and CC Sabathia will be back after the All-Star Break. Furthermore, every team in that division is flawed and they almost all need to make a move or two. Whoever makes the smartest deadline deal (or strikes first and gets the starting pitcher everyone else wants) could end up being the team that wins it.
Whether or not that columnist agrees, the Yankees are going to be buyers. The Mets likely will be sellers. They've been waiting until next year when Matt Harvey returns (and Noah Syndergaard is in the rotation as well) pretty much all season. It only makes sense for the Mets to unload veteran pieces that contending teams might want in the short term for prospects that will help them out in the long term.
The second wild card has made the whole trade deadline situation even trickier to figure out. With more teams in the race (whether it's reality or simply their perception is irrelevant), there are fewer players on the market. And how many players from bad teams are contenders actually going to want? It's definitely a buyers market where supply is nowhere close to demand. This furthers my belief that the trade deadline should be at the end of August instead of the end of July, but that's an argument for another day.
As it stands, though, the non-waiver trade deadline is quickly approaching, so teams that are right on the edge need to decide soon. There are the obvious sellers--the Cubs, the Rays, the Padres, the Phillies, the Twins. There are the obvious buyers--the Blue Jays, the Brewers, the Orioles, the Braves. There are the teams that probably don't need to do anything--the Dodgers, the A's, the Tigers. Then there's everybody else. What they decide to do could determine these pennant races.
Here's what I think some middling contenders need to do as the trade deadline approaches:
Royals: Buyers-James Shields is probably leaving as a free agent. That means they've only got a legitimate No. 1 pitcher for three more months. That's it. If they go out and get another one, even if it is a rental, that might be enough to contend for a wild card. And, they're only 3.5 games behind the Tigers, so even the division remains possible.
Indians: Sellers-After making the playoffs last year, hopes got high in Cleveland. But they're right back to where they were before last season's breakthrough. The Indians have a lot of good talent, but it's probably not enough to propel them back to the postseason. If somebody wants Lonnie Chisenhall, I'd listen.
Angels: Buyers-This is a tough one. The Angels are finally starting to play at a level the talent on their roster indicates they should be. But that doesn't mean Anaheim's complete. Not by a long shot. They could use another starter behind Jered Weaver and Garrett Richards, and it wouldn't hurt to improve that bullpen (they already made a Jason Grilli-Ernesto Frieri swap with Pittsburgh). It might seem counterintuitive to trade some of their outfield depth, but they've got enough to make a deal worthwhile.
Mariners: Buyers-Seattle might be the most surprising contender out there. And they're also the most interesting team in the mix. The Mariners have been so bad for so long that they have a lot of young position players on the Major League roster. But they also went out and spent a lot of money on Robinson Cano, who's used to playing in October. Take a shot.
Rangers: Sellers-Another team that's gotten used to the postseason is the Rangers. But they've had some injuries this year and find themselves mired in fourth place in the surprisingly ultra-strong AL West. They're not going to catch the A's. Or the Angels. And the playoffs certainly seem out of the question. But Texas has a lot that other teams will want. How much of it they're willing to give up, and to who, could make a huge difference in the races.
Marlins: Buyers-Miami's not as good as the Braves or the Nationals, but the deficiencies of the NL East's top two teams have kept the Marlins in contention a lot longer than most people probably thought. They don't have enough to contend right now, so I'd put them in the "buyers" category right now. That could change, though, depending on what Atlanta and Washington do.
Reds: Buyers-Cincinnati is one of those teams that could go either way. The Reds could easily stand pat and make a run at the wild card. But Milwaukee's going to do something, and if they want a chance to win the NL Central, they might need to do something as well. They don't need to do much. That's why this one could go either way.
Cardinals: Buyers-I still don't quite understand how St. Louis is in contention with a bunch of guys I've never heard of every year. Yet they are. And it also seems like they never do anything, one way or the other, at the trade deadline. While I don't see that changing this year, it also seems unlikely the Cardinals will challenge the Brewers for the NL Central title without making a move of some sort. With all those guys that they don't want to get rid of, you know they've got trade chips, too.
Pirates: Sellers-Last year's run to the playoffs was as great as it was unexpected. But the Pirates are back in their familiar place as the team that has the pieces to make the difference on a contender, even though it probably won't be Pittsburgh. I can easily see them standing pat and seeing if they can make another run next year with this same core group. I can also see them dangling those pieces in front of hungry suitors in an attempt to get even more prospects.
Rockies: Sellers-Make no mistake, the Colorado Rockies aren't going anywhere. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Giants. But the Rockies are kind of like the Pirates in that they have a lot of players who could make a difference in a pennant race. For anybody who needs a hitter, I'd pick up a phone and see what Colorado wants.
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