Saturday, May 17, 2014

Stanley Cup Conference Finals

I'd imagine the NHL has got to be happy with the Stanley Cup Playoffs so far.  Thursday was the only night since the playoffs started that there wasn't a game, every series has had at least one overtime game, and there's been six Game 7's (incredibly, the road team is 5-1 in those games, including the Kings twice).

And now we're left with four teams that people probably thought had an outside chance for the Cup, but probably wouldn't have been considered favorites when the playoffs began.  Well, one of them is going to win it.  It's Blackhawks vs. Kings in the West for the second straight year, while it's Rangers-Canadiens in the East.  You know NBC's gotta be happy.  It's the three biggest media markets in the U.S. and the most famous hockey team in the world.  It's also crazy that the Canadiens were the only Canadian team to make the playoffs, and they're still alive in the conference finals. 

We've also got a chance for our second straight all-Original Six Final.  When we got Boston-Chicago last year (for the first one since 1979, when it was Rangers-Canadiens), we knew the chances of another one were going to drop considerably, since the realignment was putting five of the six in the East.  Yet here we are, in the first year of this format, and we can get it in back-to-back years.  It's guaranteed in the East.  Blackhawks, it's on you.  No pressure though.

Eastern Conference: Canadiens-Rangers: These two are meeting in the playoffs for the 15th time, and the first time since 1996.  And one is guaranteed its first Final appearance in 20 years.  This is also the series that both of these teams wanted.  Because the Rangers weren't going to beat Boston and the Canadiens weren't going to beat Pittsburgh.  Instead they'll face each other, and these teams are so evenly-matched it's funny.

Let's start with the goalies.  When's the last time Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist squared off?  Oh, that's right.  It was the Olympic gold medal game.  That's when Price led a different group of Canadians to their second straight gold medal over Lundqvist and the Swedes.  So, unlike the last series, the Rangers' advantage in goal isn't as distinct.  Some might even argue that the two goalies are equal, although I give Lundqvist the slight edge.

Offensively, though, the matchup is about as even as can be.  This is going to be a different series than Rangers-Pittsburgh, and certainly different than Montreal-Boston.  Both of these teams are fast, and the action is going to be back-and-forth, up-and-down the ice.  Two years ago when they lost to the Devils in the conference finals, the Rangers looked incredibly fatigued after playing the maximum 14 games in the first two rounds.  Well, they've played 14 again this season.  Montreal has only played 11.  The Rangers did get an extra day of rest because they finished their series first, but I'm curious to see if the overall fresher legs for Montreal will become a factor as the series wears on.

If the Canadiens are going to win this series, they can't let it go seven.  If the last three seasons have proved anything, it's that you don't want to go against Henrik Lundqvist in Game 7 of a playoff series.  So, if Montreal has a 3-2 lead, they'd better get it done at Madison Square Garden in Game 6.  Otherwise, there will probably be Stanley Cup Final games on Broadway.

Unfortunately for both teams, I don't think we're looking at a quick series here.  It's going to be a grind, and the little things are going to make the difference.  The Rangers have been doing the little things well since they went down 3-1 against Pittsburgh.  They've had unfinished business for two years.  They're not going to get to this point only to fall short again.  Rangers in six.

Western Conference: Blackhawks-Kings: You want to talk about resilient?  How about the Los Angeles Kings?  This team simply refuses to go away.  They're 6-0 in elimination games this postseason.  I think a lot of the comeback against the Sharks was San Jose choking, but they went and BEAT Anaheim, and the Ducks were the prohibitive Cup favorites.  The lesson here is that when you have the chance to put the Kings away, you'd better do it.  Because otherwise you'll be the team that's in trouble.

Anyway, we had all those good teams out West this season.  But Anaheim, San Jose, St. Louis and Colorado are all sitting at home.  What we've got instead is a familiar script.  A rematch of last year's West Final, as well as a matchup of the last two Stanley Cup champions.

The Blackhawks and Kings know each other well, and they're the two teams with more playoff experience than anybody over the past three years.  That's important, because both of these teams have drawn on that experience to get them through the tough times in these playoffs.  But they won't be able to draw on it against somebody else that's been there before.  Of the 46 players dressing for each game of this series, there will only be a handful that haven't had their name etched on the Cup in the last two years.

When these two met last year, it was no contest.  The Blackhawks were the better team in every way and won the series in five games.  I think that overall, Chicago is still the better team.  There's another factor working in the Blackhawks' favor that I don't think a lot of people have considered yet.  The Kings haven't left California in a month, and they had no travel at all for two weeks.  That travel to Chicago (especially for an afternoon game tomorrow) is going to feel weird on their bodies.  I know their bodies are used to that travel by this point in the season, but I don't see how that time change won't have an effect after spending so long in the Pacific time zone.

I've been looking for something to give one team the edge over the other, and I think that might be it.  The Kings have gotten lucky.  San Jose and Anaheim weren't able to put them away.  For Chicago, delivering that knockout punch won't be a problem.  Blackhawks in six. 

And how cool would a Rangers-Blackhawks matchup be?  Well, out of the 15 possible matchups between Original Six teams, it's the only one that has never happened in the Stanley Cup Final.  That's about to change.  Give it two weeks.

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