It's safe to say that the win totals of the five teams in the NL Central are probably going to be a little lower this season. That's because they don't have the Astros to kick around anymore. The whole reason behind this season's realignment is because of the awkwardness that having six teams in this division created for so long. Well, that's no more. We've finally got an even number of teams in each division, and the teams in the NL Central finally get to play the same number of games against each of their division opponents. In the long run, that's going to be a very good thing.
In the short term, however, the five remaining NL Central teams aren't going to enjoy those extra opportunites to beat up on Houston. The Reds, Brewers and Cardinals still have the Pirates and Cubs, but whoever wins the most games within that group of three will likely take the division. Cincinnati is arguably the most talented team in the division, but St. Louis is always in the mix no matter what the expectations on them are. As we all know, the Cardinals were unlikely World Series winners two years ago, then they only got into the playoffs as the second wild card last year, yet beat the Nationals and had a 3-1 lead on the eventual champion Giants in the NLCS, despite losing Albert and Tony LaRussa. Basically what I'm saying is that you can never count the Cardinals out. And I haven't forgotten about the Brewers, who lost to St. Louis in the 2011 NLCS and have begun to put enough pieces together to make a run at it again. I don't think they will, but they're going to keep it close well into September.
1. Cincinnati Reds: It sure looked like the Reds were going to knock off San Francisco in the Division Series last season. Up 2-0 and heading home for three. But the Giants rallied to win three straight, which is something the Cardinals know all about, too. Anyway, Cincinnati has the most talented team in the NL Central, anchored by Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. They let Scott Rolen walk away so that they could give the everyday third base job to Todd Frazier, who was a finalist for the Rookie of the Year Award everyone knew was going to Bryce Harper. But their biggest move of the offseason was that big trade with Cleveland for Shin-Soo Choo. Now they don't have to bat Phillips leadoff anymore, and the outfield defense should be much improved with Choo in center and Jay Bruce moving to right. They had one of the best offenses in the National League last season. I think this year, they might be even better. The pitching staff ain't too shabby either. I'm glad they didn't continue with their misguided plan to move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation. He's lights-out as a closer. That 100-mph fastball is such a weapon in the ninth inning. Why give opposing hitters more opportunities to see it? He has the potential to be a dominant closer in Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman territory. I hope the Reds realize that and keep Chapman in the bullpen from here on out. Perhaps they thought they could get away with moving him to the rotation because they also have former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, who was tremendous as a setup man last year. The other reason they didn't need to move Chapman to the rotation is because that rotation is very solid. The only small issue with it is that all five starters are right-handed, but that's very minor. All five of them won double-digit games last year, and they actually all made a postseason start. They've also been incredibly durable. The quintet started 161 of Cincinnati's 162 games last season. The Reds are good. Very good. They're not just the best team in the NL Central. They could contend for their first World Series title in 23 years.
Projected Record: 96-66
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Todd Frazier-3B, Zack Cozart-SS, Ryan Hanigan-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
2. St. Louis Cardinals: I've finally learned that the St. Louis Cardinals are always going to be in the conversation no matter what. Although, I'm sure the rest of the National League is hoping St. Louis doesn't find some way to make the playoffs yet again. Because this team is seemingly unbeatable in October. As for April-September, I'm not sure it'll be quite as automatic. Losing Chris Carpenter for the season yet again shortens the rotation, and I don't really feel confident in those starters other than Adam Wainwright and the underrated Jaime Garcia. If Lance Lynn has the same type of season he had last year, St. Louis will probably work its way to October again. If not, they may come up a game or two short. The bullpen is very good, and we've seen it on full display during each of the last two postseasons. Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte are both listed as the closer on the Cardinals' depth chart, although I'm not quite sure why. Motte's the guy. The left side of the infield will look a little different on Opening Day, with David Freese and Rafael Furcal both starting the season on the DL. The only other major change from last season is that Lance Berkman is now a member of the Rangers, finally opening up an everyday place for Allen Craig at first base. Carlos Beltran and Yadier Molina had that experience of playing in the WBC final with Puerto Rico, so we'll see if that was the linchpin towards a big season. With Albert gone, Molina is this team's best player and undisputed leader. As he goes, so go the Cardinals. I just think that top-to-bottom the lineup isn't as good as it's been in the past, though. And they definitely aren't better than Cincinnati on paper. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if somebody completely random shows up and the Cardinals find a way. They always do.
Projected Record: 89-73
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Jon Jay-CF, Carlos Beltran-RF, Matt Holliday-LF, Allen Craig-1B, Yadier Molina-C, Matt Carpenter-3B, Pete Kozma-SS, Daniel Descalso-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller
Closer: Jason Motte
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Despite losing Prince Fielder, the Brewers didn't have as much of a dropoff as we all expected last season. One of the primary reasons why is Ryan Braun, who proved that his 2011 MVP numbers weren't completely a product of steroids, putting up even better numbers last year when he was presumably clean and didn't have the big guy as protection in the lineup. I've never quite been able to embrace Ryan Braun, but after last season I can finally appreciate he's a singular talent. The talent around him is good if not great. Milwaukee's second-best position player is probably second baseman Rickie Weeks, while third baseman Aramis Ramirez has never lived up to the hype. Jonathan Lucroy is solid behind the plate and I like Corey Hart, who'll start the season on the DL. The pitching staff is what concerns me about this team, though. After Yovani Gallardo, the rotation is incredibly soft. That pickup of Kyle Lohse last week will help significantly. He's an established Major League starter who they can immediately plug into that No. 2 spot behind Gallardo. I actually think Kyle Lohse is going to have a solid year for the Brewers. Outside of John Axford, the bullpen isn't that good, although the addition of Tom Gorzellany should help. I see the Brewers as a sleeper team this season. Milwaukee's that annoying team that simply won't go away. They probably don't have enough to make a playoff push, but they're going to be that team nobody wants to face, either. And they aren't that far behind the top two teams in this division, so a run wouldn't come as a complete surprise. Not sure the pitching's there, though.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Norichika Aoki-RF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-LF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Alex Gonzalez-1B, Carlos Gomez-CF, Jean Segura-SS
Projected Rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, Chris Narveson
Closer: John Axford
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates' pursuit of a .500 season continues. It's become their Great White Whale. So close, yet so far. It looked like they might finally get there last season, until that August swoon dropped them to 79-83. Still, they've won 70 in each of the last two seasons, so it's not out of the question to think 80 (or 81?) is attainable. They even made noise in free agency, coming out of nowhere to pluck Russell Martin away from the Yankees. He should definitely help that pitching staff, which doesn't include a bunch of no-name young guys for once. The ace of that rotation is another former Yankee, A.J. Burnett, who got away from the pressure-cooker of New York and, as I expected, had a very solid season with 14 wins last year. The rotation isn't great, but it isn't as awful as it's been either. My only question about closer Jason Grilli goes back to the WBC. If you're Italy and you're at risk of blowing the lead in the eighth inning of an elimination game, why don't you bring your closer in? Anyway, I digress. Back to the Pirates...Pittsburgh boasts one of the most talented players in the game in Andrew McCutchen. He's finally not a one-man team. They're kind of like the Royals in that all of those high draft picks they've had in recent years are now all reaching the Majors at the same time. I really like Neil Walker and Garrett Jones, and Pedro Alvarez is primed for a breakout. This lineup actually isn't that bad. Will it be enough to finally cross that .500 threshold? Who's to say? But what I do know is that the Pirates' days as the National League laughingstock are over. Yes, they haven't been good since Barry Bonds was there, and they have to get that .500 monkey off their backs, but they're a lot closer to being competitive than they used to be. They aren't even the worst team in the NL Central anymore.
Projected Record: 79-83
Projected Lineup: Sterling Marte-LF, Neil Walker-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Garrett Jones-1B, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Russell Martin-C, Travis Snider-RF, Clint Barmes-SS
Projected Rotation: A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Wandy Rodriguez, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Karstens
Closer: Jason Grilli
5. Chicago Cubs: 105 years and counting. Yes, I'm already including this season. Because the Cubs don't have a prayer of even coming anywhere near .500. Jeff Samardzija is the Opening Day starter. That's about all I need to say about the lovable losers from the North Side. They'll do their usual thing of selling a lot of tickets and people having a grand old time at their beautiful ballpark, which turns 100 next year, but they've been in a downward trend since their 97-win season in 2008. And it ain't coming to an end this year. Starlin Castro is a bonafide star, but nobody else on the team is. Anthony Rizzo has the potential to get there and so does Darwin Barney, but the rest of the team is nothing to write home about. They can finally get rid of the albatross that is Alfonso Soriano's contract soon, though, which should give Theo the flexibility to get these guys some help. Edwin Jackson continues his quest to play for as many teams as Octavio Dotel. This year he can mark the Cubs off the list, his seventh different team in six seasons. He's a quality Major League starter, but does it bother anybody else that he can't stay in the same place for very long? Their big free agent pitching prize was the Twins' Scott Baker, who has an injured shoulder and will probably start the season on the DL. And I have no idea what Matt Garza's deal is. I know they were trying to trade him (unsuccessfully), and he's not even in their projected rotation. Problem is, he's their best starting pitcher. It's like when they had Carlos Zambrano. Even if you don't want him, if he's the best you've got, you've gotta play him if you can't get rid of him. Carlos Marmol is a quality closer, but on a team like the Cubs that doesn't really matter. They lost 101 games last season. I don't think they'll be that bad again, but 70 wins might be a little too optimistic. But hey, you know their fans are going to have so much fun at Wrigley that they might not even notice.
Projected Record: 68-94
Projected Lineup: David DeJesus-CF, Darwin Barney-2B, Starlin Castro-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Alfonso Soriano-LF, Nate Schierholtz-RF, Luis Valbuena-3B, Wellington Castillo-C
Projected Rotation: Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Carlos Villanueva
Closer: Carlos Marmol
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