I know what you're thinking. "Wait, doesn't he normally do the NFL picks on Saturdays?" Well, yes. But this week is different. It's Thanksgiving. Instead of one Thursday night game between two crappy teams on NFL Network, we've got a full slate of Thanksgiving action, including a Jets-Patriots matchup on NBC as the capper after the traditional Lions and Cowboys doubleheader. As a result, we give thanks for the NFL and Thanksgiving football with a week's worth of picks a few days early.
Texans (9-1) at Lions (4-6): Houston-Well, just like I thought, the Texans almost lost their proverbial "trap" game last week at home against Jacksonville. Fortunately, they showed up in the fourth quarter and pulled it out in overtime to avoid an embarrassing loss. Now they're on a short week for the first Thanksgiving game in franchise history. Their opponent is a Lions team that basically needs to run the table if they want to have any shot at returning to the playoffs, and they know it. Back a few years ago when the Thanksgiving game was the Lions' only national TV game all season, we could always count on that one being Detroit's best game of the year. I don't think that'll be any different this year. But the Texans will relish the national showcase and prove that last week was the fluke. They'll be the first team in the NFL to get to 10 wins.
Redskins (4-6) at Cowboys (5-5): Dallas-I hate it when Dallas plays a division game on Thanksgiving, mainly because it means either the Cowboys, Redskins or Eagles has to win. Dallas-Washington is the worst, since those are the two I hate the most. This one probably ended up on Thanksgiving because the Redskins are the Cowboys' archrival. It's not because of how good Washington is. And the schedule came out before they drafted RG3. Anyway, the Redskins slaughtered that sinking ship known as the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, while the Cowboys needed overtime to beat a Browns team that looked better than it has all season. Griffin makes his national TV debut on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, but he won't be receiving the turducken leg or Galloping Gobbler or whatever stupid award FOX gives out now. The Cowboys can move within a half-game of the Giants if they win, which I think they will.
Patriots (7-3) at Jets (4-6): New England-When they added the Thanksgiving night NBC game to the schedule this season, they picked Patroits-Jets to be the debut. They probably figured it would be a great matchup leading into the playoff stretch between the two teams most people figured would be fighting for the AFC East title. Instead, the Jets are a complete mess, although they did their three-game losing streak with a win over the Rams last week. That losing streak started with an overtime loss in a game they should've won in Foxboro. The Patriots have the Jets' number. Even without Gronkowski, I don't see that changing.
Vikings (6-4) at Bears (7-3): Chicago-The Vikings and Bears play twice in the next three weeks, and this matchup is huge for both teams. How badly do the Bears need Jay Cutler? They sure got slaughtered by the 49ers on Monday night, didn't they? Anyway, after losses to Houston and San Francisco, the Bears amazingly aren't in first place anymore. The Vikings, meanwhile, are in a three-way tie for the second wild card, but lost to both of the teams they're tied with (Seattle and Tampa Bay). So, basically, both teams need a win. Only one can get it. It'll be Chicago. There's no way that defense won't bounce back. And they'll take it out on Christian Ponder.
Raiders (3-7) at Bengals (5-5): Cincinnati-Cincinnati has won two straight to move to .500 on the season and get within one game of a playoff spot. Now that they're not playing teams that are crappier than them anymore, the Raiders have gone back to getting their asses kicked on a weekly basis. Cincinnati falls into the "good" category, not the "crappier than Oakland" category. That means the Bengals should win.
Steelers (6-4) at Browns (2-8): Pittsburgh-First Ben Roethlisberger goes down, then the Steelers lose Byron Leftwich after one game. Enter 36-year-old Charlie Batch, the former Lions starter from way back when. As a result, I've got Pittsburgh on upset alert this week against a game Browns team that looked phenomenal in its overtime loss in Dallas last week. I still think the Steelers win, but it'll be closer than you would've thought a couple weeks ago.
Bills (4-6) at Colts (6-4): Indianapolis-Thanks to that last place schedule and an overall pretty weak AFC, a playoff berth is Indy's for the taking. In three of their four losses this year, the Colts have gotten crushed, including last week's 59-24 thumping at the hands of the Patriots. The Bills only lost by seven in New England the week before, then went and beat the Dolphins last week on Thursday night. With the extra rest especially, I think Buffalo has a chance and keeps it close. But ultimately, Andrew will find a little more Luck and the Colts will pull out another one.
Broncos (7-3) at Chiefs (1-9): Denver-Denver hasn't officially clinched the AFC West yet, but we all know it's just a matter of time. We almost saw the one-win Jaguars beat the one-loss Texans last week, and the Chiefs have certainly played much better in their last two games, actually having the lead in both. But, who we kidding here? This will be a Denver rout.
Seahawks ("6-4") at Dolphins (4-6): Miami-No teams in the NFL are located farther apart geographically than these two. The Seahawks currently hold the second NFC wild card, while the Dolphins' chances to stay in the AFC mix really took a hit last week in Buffalo. Logic dictates a Seattle win, and the Seahawks are favored in this game. But with that travel and a 1:00 game, I just don't see it happening. The Dolphins in a minor upset.
Falcons (9-1) at Buccaneers (6-4): Atlanta-Tampa Bay's a very dangerous team right now, and Atlanta had better beware. The Bucs have won four straight and, after outscoring everybody for a couple weeks, dug deep and won one that it looked like they were almost certainly going to lose in overtime in Charlotte last week. If the Falcons were still undefeated, I would've earmarked this game as the first loss. But a week after losing to New Orleans, the Falcons also found a way to win last week at home against Arizona. It's possible there'll be three NFC South teams in the playoffs. That'll make these division games ultra-important. Atlanta can take a stranglehold with a win, though. The Falcons can stop worrying about the NFC South. They can start thinking about home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Titans (4-6) at Jaguars (1-9): Tennessee-In their remaining six games, the Jaguars play the entire AFC East bookended by their two meetings with the Titans. Tennessee still has an outside playoff chance, which will all but go away with a loss to lowly Jacksonville. They had a really impressive showing in Miami heading into their bye week. Their trip to the other end of Florida should be no different.
Ravens (8-2) at Chargers (4-6): Baltimore-Ed Reed will play, which is the right call. That hit last week was illegal, but not dirty. There's a big difference. Yes, the Chargers always play better in the second half of the season. But I don't see that happening this year. This stretch that they're in the middle of is brutal. They lost in Tampa Bay, then lost in Denver. Well, it's another playoff contender this week in the AFC North-leading Ravens, whose 8-2 record is the third-best in the NFL. Another road win will defintely bolster Baltimore's postseason resume.
49ers (7-2-1) at Saints (5-5): San Francisco-It's not a stretch to call this one the game of the week, and it's a rematch of that great NFC Divisional Playoff game from last season. Jim Harbaugh has announced that Colin Kaepernick will get the start again this week. Good call. Kaepernick led that fourth-quarter comeback in the tie with St. Louis, then had that dominant performance against the Bears on Monday night. You've gotta give the 49ers credit for how they responded to the St. Louis game with what was by far their best effort of the season. The Saints have turned things around after their 0-4 start, winning five of their last six. If they beat the 49ers in the Superdome, those playoff thoughts might not be that far-fetched after all. San Francisco can stamp itself as a contender to return to New Orleans in early February if they win, though. The 49ers are a better team. Their defense will make the difference.
Rams (3-6-1) at Cardinals (4-6): Arizona-It's now six straight losses for the Cardinals since starting the season 4-0, although they came close to pulling one out last week in Atlanta. The Rams at home, you'd figure, are their best chance to snap the streak. It looked like St. Louis had turned a corner with the tie in San Francisco. Then they go and lose at home to the Jets. Last place in the NFC West is on the line here. The Cardinals win and maintain third place.
Packers ("7-3") at Giants (6-4): Giants-This is a close second behind 49ers-Saints in the "Game of the Week" sweepstakes. The Packers, believe it or not, have moved into first place and the No. 3 seed in the NFC thanks to their five straight wins and Chicago's back-to-back losses. The Giants are still in first place, too, but barely, and they could actually end up tied with the Cowboys if they lose and Dallas wins. We all know how historically bad the Giants have been in November under Tom Coughlin. And the Packers are right up their among the best teams in football right now. This should be a good one. All signs point to a Green Bay win, but I just have this feeling about the Giants. They've been embarrassed two weeks in a row. But they were also a team in desparate need of a bye, which they finally got last week. They've got something to prove, even if it's only to themselves. That's normally when the Giants play their best. Call me an optimistic fan, but I see the Giants winning for some reason. (Sidebar: you know they have to have scheduled the Thursday and Sunday night games both in New York on purpose. Have fun, NBC employees. No traveling on Thanskgiving Weekend!)
Panthers (2-8) at Eagles (3-7): Philadephia-Our annual football feast ends with a dud. A meaningless Monday night game between two teams going nowhere. You can't even get excited for Cam Newton vs. Michael Vick, seeing as Vick won't play. The Eagles are a sinking ship that's going down quickly. The Panthers are simply a mess, although they did look good (really good, in fact) in last week's game that they probably should've won against Tampa Bay. Let's say Philadelphia, if for no other reason than because the Eagles are at home.
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 109-50-1
BONUS GAME: 100th Grey Cup-Toronto Argonauts vs. Calgary Stampeders-Both of these teams won on the road last week to advance to the historic 100th Grey Cup. It's being played in Toronto, site of more Grey Cups than anywhere else, which gives the Argos a tremendous advantage. They're playing a home game in the Grey Cup for the first time since 1982. They've also looked better than Calgary in their two playoff games. I don't see how Toronto loses in front of those rabid home fans. Not with a championship on the line.
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