Now that the Olympics are over, my focus in the sports world is once again baseball. At least for a few weeks until football season starts (sidebar: Cablevision randomly picked up NFL Network yesterday). Anyway, the trade deadline has come and gone, and the pennant races are starting to heat up. As stupid as I think it is, the second wild card has added a whole new level of intrigue to the final six weeks of the season, since so many more teams consider themselves "in the race" than even last year. The most interesting of those teams is the Washington Nationals.
As impossible as it seems, the Nationals have the best record in baseball. Yet Washington still plans to shut down Stephen Strasburg when he reaches his club-imposed innings limit, which should be sometime in early September. This is one of the stupidest ideas by any team that I've ever heard. There isn't a single person who thinks this is a good idea oustide of about four people within the Nationals organization.
On the surface, you can't entirely blame the Nationals for wanting to protect Strasburg. They spent a lot of money on him and want to make sure he'll still be able to play 10 years down the road. He's a year removed from Tommy John surgery and he's never thrown this many innings before. They've seen guys like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood break down because they threw too many innings too early in their careers and they don't want that to happen to Strasburg.
But common sense has to come into play here. Strasburg is Washington's best pitcher. Why would any team voluntarily shut down its best pitcher, while healthy, in the middle of a pennant race? Especially since winning the division has taken on such greater importance this season. It's not as if the Nationals are running away with the NL East. They might get caught by the Braves even if Strasburg were to make all of his remaining starts. And they might be able to shut him down and still hold off Atlanta. But why take the chance? Likewise, do you want to go into a one-game playoff without Strasburg available? That wild card game is a do-or-die situation. I want the best guy available pitching.
Nothing against Gio Gonzalez or any other Nationals starter, but I think even they would agree that the most intimidating pitcher on that staff is Stephen Strasburg. Should Washington get stuck in the wild card game, whoever they're playing has to be thrilled about the prospect of facing any other Nationals pitcher. Especially if that team's a San Francisco throwing Matt Cain or the Pirates and A.J. Burnett.
Of course, the Nationals would argue that there isn't much of a dropoff between starters 1-5 in their rotation. Washington has the best team ERA in baseball, and the starting rotation is considered the team's strength. Gio Gonzalez joined Strasburg on the All-Star team, and Jordan Zimmermann's 2.38 ERA is the best in the National League. They've also got Edwin Jackson, who won a ring with the Cardinals last year. I'd feel really good with those three and Strasburg going into a playoff series.
If you take Strasburg out of the equation, Washington's rotation becomes very different. You're left with Ross Detwiler or John Lannan as the fourth starter (Chien-Ming Wang's been on the DL since the end of June and only made seven starts all year). Lannan was a regular in that rotation for the last four years and was even considered the ace of Washington's staff a few years ago, but he was relegated to Triple-A this season (probably only as a casualty of having minor league options the other guys didn't have) and has only made two starts in the Majors. That speaks to the Nationals' pitching depth, but it's also risky to go with a guy who hasn't pitched in the Majors all year as one of your playoff starters. I'd still go with Lannan over Detwiler, though.
The Nationals probably think they're good enough to shut down Strasburg and survive the stretch run. They might be. But it's a risk to say the least. And it's one that might not be worth taking. Furthermore, they owe it to their fans. This is the first time since they moved to Washington that the Nationals have been good. (The franchise hasn't been this good since the ill-fated 1994 season that was the beginning of the end for the Expos.) There hasn't been playoff baseball at all in Washington since the Senators were in the 1933 World Series. That's 40 years of losing before 35 more of not even having a team.
It certainly looks like the Nationals are going to end that drought this season. But who knows if it's going to happen again? You know the Phillies are going to be back next season, and the Marlins certainly have the look of a contender. This could very well be a one-year thing. And if it is, why not go for broke? Baseball fans in Washington deserve it. With Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals are a World Series contender. Without him, they're out in the first round.
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