We've reached the start of the second-biggest sporting event of 2012: the UEFA European Championships. Four years ago, Spain won the Euro for its first major championship, and that victory propelled them to a World Cup title two years later. The Spanish are the undisputed best team in the world. However, no team has ever won back-to-back Euros. For that reason, I've got to think Spain is vulnerable. I still think they've got to be considered the favorites, but don't count out teams like Germany, the Netherlands, and even England.
GROUP A: Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, Russia
Poland's co-hosting, so they get to be the seeded team in the weakest group. I'm not sure if any of these teams would advance out of another group, but two of them will be in the quarterfinals. I've got to think Russia will be one of them. The Russians were semifinalists in 2008, and they're clearly the most talented team of these four. Greece won the title in 2004, but was eliminated in the group stage four years ago. You never know what you're going to get out of the Greeks. Getting placed in this weak group could be a blessing. I can easily see them winning it. But I can also see them losing all three games. Poland's only in the tournament because they're hosting. Yet they could easily advance to the quarterfinals. The Czech Republic barely got into the tournament, but could also surprise. Goalkeeper Peter Cech just won the Champions League with Chelsea, and he's the best goalie in the group. With him in net, I can see the Czechs winning a game or two and getting out of the group stage.
GROUP B: Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal
Unlike Group A, Group B is the proverbial "Group of Death." Germany and the Netherlands were the teams that lost to Spain at each of the last two major tournaments. The Germans followed up their Euro 2008 silver with a third-place finish at the 2010 World Cup. Germany has been the most successful team in the history of the European Championships, and even in a tough group, they're the class of it. While the Germans have the best team, the best players in this group might be the ones wearing Dutch orange: Robin van Persie, Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben. The Netherlands is the perennial bridesmaid, though. I also don't think it's a guarantee Germany and the Netherlands both advance. Portugal is a dangerous team. They made the Euro final in 2004 and the World Cup semis in 2006. I'm not sure Portugal has the horses to get far, but Cristiano Ronaldo is an absolute stud. If he gets hot, that could be bad news for the other three teams in this group. Denmark is ranked ninth in the world, but only fourth in this group! In any other group, I'd be tempted to pick the Danes. But against these three, they've got no chance.
GROUP C: Croatia, Ireland, Italy, Spain
There's no question that Spain is the class of this group. That's what happens when you're the No. 1-ranked team in the world, who also happen to be the defending European and World champions. Spain's going to cruise through this group. The only potential hiccup could be their opening game with Italy. But Spain lost its first group game in the 2010 World Cup and went on to win the title. As long as they get out of the group stage (which shouldn't be a problem), Spain looks poised to make another deep run. No team has ever repeated at the Euro, or won three straight major tournaments, but Spain's got a great chance to do both of those things. The other traditional power in this group is Italy. The Azzuri always seem to back up a bad tournament with a deep run. After being eliminated in the group stage of Euro 2004, they won the World Cup in 2006. Well, they were three-and-out in South Africa. Following that formula, Italy should be a contender for a deep run. I'm not sure about that, but they'll get out of the group pretty easily. Croatia's got those cool checkerboard jerseys, but will be overwhelmed by the two heavyweights. Same thing for Ireland. After controversially missing out on the 2010 World Cup, the Irish are playing in a major tournament for the first time in 10 years. However, the best Robbie Keane and Co. can hope for is keeping the games close and maybe stealing a couple of points in draws.
GROUP D: England, France, Sweden, Ukraine
This is the second-deepest group behind Group B. England and France are generally messes when it comes to these big-time tournaments, and I don't think Poland/Ukraine 2012 is going to be any different. England dind't even qualify for Euro 2008, while France's flameout in South Africa was very well-publicized. Yet you still have the feeling one of them is going to win the group. The problem with the English and French teams is that they both have so much talent. That's what makes those results so frustrating. If they can ever put it together, the sky's the limit (like France did in 1998 and 2000). You've got to think that the level of dysfunction with England and France works in Sweden's favor. Like always, the Swedes are quiet contenders. They're not in-your-face. They're just consistent and steady. I can easily see Sweden winning this group. I'm officially making them my sleeper team. Like Poland, Ukraine's only in the tournament because they're co-hosting. Some way to make your initial Euro appearance! The thing about Ukraine is, even though they're the second lowest-ranked team in the tournament, I can see them surprising in this group. The host team always does well in major tournaments, and Ukraine's not as overmatched as some people might think. Since you never know what you're going to get from England and France, both yellow and blue teams could move on to the quarterfinals.
QUARTERFINALS: Russia vs. Netherlands, Spain vs. England, Germany vs. Poland, Sweden vs. Italy
Those are my matchups. I think Poland gets the second spot out of a weak Group A, Sweden surprises a lot of people by taking Group D, and England manages to be less of a mess than France, which gives them the second spot out of that group. It could come down to goal differential between those two.
I think the Netherlands beats Russia in a very competitive quarterfinal, setting up a rematch of the World Cup final against Spain. The Polish fans will be amped up for a quarterfinal matchup against hated neighbor Germany, but the Germans will spoil their party. Sweden vs. Italy could be the most entertaining of the quarterfinal games. I'm going Italy in penalty kicks. Spain and Germany win the two semifinals, setting up a rematch of 2008. But this time, the Germans come out on top, denying Spain the chance to complete the trifecta.
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