Saturday, November 26, 2011

Week 12 Picks

That's more like it.  I think I might finally be back on track with my weekly NFL picks.  Although, it's not lost on me that the only two games I picked incorrectly last week were the two involving New York teams.  But c'mon, did anybody actually have Denver over the Jets?  I didn't think so.  Anyway, after a 12-2 last week, I went 3-for-3 on Thanksgiving.  As I said, that's more like it.  Of course, it took until Week 11.  On to the rest of Week 12:

Vikings (2-8) at Falcons (6-4): Atlanta-This is a good opportunity for Atlanta to take advantage of that Lions loss to move into playoff position in the NFC.  A Falcon loss here all but hands the NFC South to the Saints and makes Atlanta's road to the playoffs a tricky one.  A loss at home to the Vikings would also be pretty inexcusable.  I'm pretty sure the Falcons already know all this.  That's why I'm making them the pick before their big game at AFC South-leading Houston next week.

Browns (4-6) at Bengals (6-4): Cincinnati-Cincinnati is somehow holding down the last wild card spot in the AFC.  I still don't think they're going to hold off all those 5-5 teams that are better than them, especially with Pittsburgh and Houston as the next two games on the schedule.  If the Bengals are going to make the playoffs, they can't lose to the Browns at home.

Buccaneers (4-6) at Titans (5-5): Tampa Bay-The Titans are one of those 5-5 teams on the outside looking in at the AFC race, while the Bucs, who were 4-2, are now 4-6.  Needless to say, to have any hope of making the playoffs, Tampa Bay needs to get off the sneid.  Don't ask me why, but I just have a feeling about the Bucs in this game.

Panthers (2-8) at Colts (0-10): Carolina-The Colts didn't lose last week!  They might not this week either.  Carolina at home, especially after a bye, is possibly the only winnable game left for the Peyton-less crew.  But alas, as I say every week, I'm not picking the Colts until they finally win one.

Cardinals (3-7) at Rams (2-8): Arizona-All of the NFC West games have been backloaded for our enjoyment, making San Francisco's inevitable march to the division crown even easier.  If the Rams win and Seattle loses either this week or next, the 49ers could clinch the division before they even play again.  Anyway, I don't think St. Louis wins.  The team that used to play in St. Louis will.

Bills (5-5) at Jets (5-5): Jets-Three weeks ago when these teams met in Buffalo, the Jets dealt the Bills a pretty big blow that they still haven't recovered from.  In the last two weeks, the Bills have gone to Dallas and reenacted the two Super Bowls, then laid an egg again in Miami.  The Jets haven't won since that game, falling to the Patriots and (somehow) the Broncos.  This might as well be an elimination game.  The loser has no chance of qualifying for the playoffs (especially if it's the Bills).  For the Jets, there's some hope left, while the Bills are in a downward spiral that I don't think they'll be able to climb out of.  Jets win.

Texans (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7): Houston-Matt Leinart gets a chance to show the Cardinals that they were wrong in giving up on him.  The Texans get a chance to show that they're a good team no matter who's at quarterback.  If the Texans hadn't had a bye last week, I'd like Jacksonville's chances a little more, but Houston's had two weeks to get used to a different Matt behind center.  The Texans move closer to the first division title in franchise history.

Bears (7-3) at Raiders (6-4): Chicago-Outside of Giants-Saints, this might be the best game of the week.  Chicago's not going to be the same team without Jay Cutler, but the Bears are on a roll right now.  The Raiders, who are probably going to win the AFC West by default, have won two straight.  Chicago hasn't lost since Week 5.  Even without Cutler, the Bears are playing too well right now to let the Raiders slow them down.  I don't think an Oakland win is inconceivable, but I'm taking Chicago.

Redskins (3-7) at Seahawks (4-6): Seattle-Washington was 3-2.  Now the Redskins are 3-7.  That winning the NFC East guarantee made by Rex Grossman clearly wasn't prophetic.  Seattle has a chance to make the NFC West resemble an actual race, at least for another week, by extending that losing streak to six.

Patriots (7-3) at Eagles (4-6): New England-Who thought this might've been a Super Bowl preview when the season began?  As it is, Philly faces yet another must-win against a good team.  I give the Eagles credit for really coming to play last week against the Giants, but this might be a much tougher task.  Michael Vick's probably not going to play again.  Although, they clearly weren't hurting too badly with Vince Young against the Giants.  The Patriots probably have the AFC East safely in hand, but need a win in that battle with Baltimore/Pittsburgh and Houston for the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the AFC playoffs.  A Patriots victory would be all but a death blow for Philly.  It's going to happen eventually, so it might as well be this week.  (Sidebar, how does New England always end up with such an easy December schedule?)

Broncos (5-5) at Chargers (4-6): San Diego-For the record, I still don't think Tim Tebow's going to cut it as an NFL quarterback.  But the University of Florida's winning games, so who am I to criticize?  In fact, the Broncos have somehow managed to pass the Chargers and are only a game out of first in the AFC West.  Way back when, San Diego was 4-1.  If the Chargers are going to make the playoffs, they need to right the ship.  Quickly.  But they always play their best football at the end of the season, and I think that starts this week.

Steelers (7-3) at Chiefs (4-6): Pittsburgh-The Tyler Palko Era in Kansas City lasted a whopping one week.  A 34-3 drubbing in New England on Monday night was enough to end that experiment in favor of Kyle Orton, who was displaced in Denver by the Tim Tebow Aerial Circus.  I'm not sure why this is a Sunday night game, but I don't think Orton fares much better against the Steelers than Palko did against the Patriots.  Pittsburgh needs to keep winning to have any hope of catching Baltimore and getting a playoff bye.  The Steelers' only losses this season have come against teams that are currently in first place, which Kansas City is not.

Giants (6-4) at Saints (7-3): New Orleans-The Giants' remaining schedule is simply brutal.  The Saints are the third of five first-place teams that they'll face in a six-week span.  That's what makes last week's loss to the Eagles such a big blow.  Of course, with both Dallas games still on the schedule, the Giants are still in decent shape to win the NFC East, but they need to pick up a victory either this week or next (at home against undefeated Green Bay) to feel comfortable.  And now they're half-a-game behind the Cowboys in the division!  But I think winning this week will be a tough task.  The Saints got that gift win over the Falcons, who are basically handing them the division title, and are well-rested after their bye.  With that 49ers loss on Thanksgiving night, they're now thinking about a playoff bye.

This Week: 3-0
Last Week: 12-2
Overall: 102-61

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