That was it? Hurricane Irene certainly didn't do much here in New York, which is certainly a good thing. And fortunately the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center was unaffected, which means the U.S. Open will start on time on Monday morning.
Although, I'm going to argue that a little delay at the start of the U.S. Open wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. In each of the last three years, the weather didn't cooperate at the end of the tournament, resulting in the men's final getting pushed to Monday afternoon. That's just inconvenient for everybody. Hopefully we can get back to normal this year. For more than one reason. The men's final is scheduled on the 10th anniversary of 9/11, and I don't think there's any more fitting tribute than a major international sports championship in New York on that day.
It shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody to hear that the U.S. Open is my favorite grand slam. I try to go every year, but that's not the only reason why. Blue courts. Night tennis. Fan-friendly. The best tennis players in the world in the greatest city on Earth. But more importantly, I think the U.S. Open is the one tournament that favors the fittest, most complete players. The Australian Open's the first tournament of the year, grinders win the French Open, and servers win Wimbledon. It takes a little bit of all those skills to win the U.S. Open, though. And with the semis and finals back-to-back, you need to be fit, too.
Anyway, now it's time to look at the men's and women's fields, starting with the women. Serena Williams is back to playing like Serena Williams. She won the U.S. Open series events in Toronto and Stanford to move up to No. 28 in the rankings. That means she'll be seeded, which a lot of the other top players are very happy about. Well, probably not No. 4 Victoria Azarenka, the unfortunate one who drew Serena in the third round. The winner of that ridiculously good third-round match looks good to reach the semifinals, where No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki will probably be waiting. Wozniacki was anoinited as a grand slam champion in waiting when she made an unexpected run to the finals here two years ago. We're still waiting for it. Wozniacki's been No. 1 for over a year, yet still doesn't have that grand slam title on her resume. But I haven't given up hope on her yet (like certain Serbians). Wozniacki always plays well at Flushing Meadows and just won the warm-up tournament in New Haven, so her chances are definitely good.
The bottom half of the draw features the other two former U.S. Open champions in the field: Maria Sharapova and Venus Williams, as well as Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova. Unlike Serena, Venus is ranked in the 30s and thus unseeded. But she was unseeded in 1997 when she made the finals of her U.S. Open debut. Since she wasn't seeded, Venus could've ended up anywhere in the draw. The top players have to consider themselves lucky that they all avoided her in the early rounds. Venus is actually in a pretty good position to get to the round of 16, where she could run into No. 2 Vera Zvonareva, who was a finalist last year. Maria has looked great all summer and is coming off a U.S. Open Series win in Cincinnati. Her last two grand slam results have been semis (French) and final (Wimbledon), and she's certainly playing well enough to win a second U.S. Open title. She has a potential quarterfinal matchup with Kvitova, the woman who beat her in the Wimbledon final.
Kim Clijsters, who's won the U.S. Open each of the last three times she's played it, would've been the favorite if she wasn't out with an injury. In her absence, I'm installing Serena, Wozniacki and Sharapova as tri-favorites. My semifinal matchups are Wozniacki vs. Serena and a "Battle of the Marias" between Sharapova and Kirilenko (I don't know why I'm taking Maria Kirilenko in a section of the draw that includes Venus, Azarenka and Nadia Petrova, but I am). Moving on to the final, I'm taking the two that have played the best tennis during the U.S. Open Series: Serena and Sharapova, with Serena claiming the title.
On the men's side, this entire year has been about Novak Djokovic. Djokovic has lost a grand total of twice all season, once to Roger in the French Open semis and the other last week against Andy Murray in the final of Cincinnati. But I'm not counting that one because Djokovic retired with a shoulder injury in the second set. He says the shoulder's going to be fine for the Open, and if that's the case, the Magical Mystery Tour that is Novak Djokovic's 2011 season could feature a third grand slam title. But, like always, the men's game is still about the Big Three and everybody else.
The way the draw worked out, it was Djokovic who drew Federer in the semis. This certainly works to Roger's favor more than Novak's. Of course, Djokovic was going to get one of the two guys who beat him this year (Murray's the No. 4 seed), but I think Federer would rather play Djokovic than Nadal any day. Of course, it was a win over Federer in that classic semi at last year's U.S. Open that launched Djokovic's pursuit of No. 1. I see very little stopping either one en route to a semifinal rematch, but I also can't help but feel bad for Mardy Fish. At No. 8, Fish is the top American seed at the U.S. Open for the first time. And his "reward" is a quarterfinal matchup with the five-time champion Federer.
The top American seed at the U.S. Open every year has always been Andy Roddick. Belive it or not, it was eight years ago that Roddick won the title here, and that's still the last grand slam title by an American man (of course, he would've won one of those Wimbledon finals if he didn't always end up having to play Roger, but I digress). Anyway, for the first time in a while, I don't consider Roddick much of a threat for the title. He's only seeded 21st and needs to avoid getting upset early (which is never a guarantee with him) to have a chance. Roddick could make a run and get to the quarters, but that's where he'll run into Nadal. The other side of the bottom half of the draw is the one with the 31 players lucky enough to avoid the Big Three. But it's not like getting No. 4 seed Andy Murray is any better. However, this part of the draw also includes No. 12 seed Juan Martin Del Potro, who won this tournament in 2009 and is finally back in that form after dealing with some injuries. There's also a potential second-round matchup between American favorites Robby Ginepri and John Isner.
I know it's cliche to go with the chalk, but the top four seeds are my four semifinalists. Djokovic vs. Feder and Murray vs. Nadal. Between them, they've won six U.S. Open titles (five for Roger, one for Rafa) and made the final four other times (Djokovic twice, Roger and Murray once each). They've also split the six grand slam final appearances this year. Djokovic beat Murray in Australia, it was Rafa over Roger at the French, and Djokovic over Nadal at Wimbledon. A Federer-Murray final would give them all two grand slam final appearances this year, further cementing men's tennis as these four guys and everybody else.
But I think it'll be a rematch of the Cincinnati final, instead. A Djokovic-Federer semi could be considered the rubber match after their meetings at the U.S. Open last year and at this year's French. And as much as I love Roger, Djokovic is the best player in the world for a reason. In the other semi, Murray's not afraid of Nadal. Those two are also looking to complete a trifecta with Murray winning in Australia and Nadal on Murray's home court at Wimbledon. Murray's beaten Nadal in the U.S. Open before and has been the better player in recent weeks, so I'm taking the Brit. That sets up a Djokovic-Murray final in which Djokovic will continue his domination of men's tennis in 2011 with his third grand slam title this year.
Go Serena!
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