Well, here we are. I know that many of you have been waiting on pins and needles for two weeks waiting for my Super Bowl pick. Now that we've reached Super Bowl Eve, the time is right for me to tell you who's going to win and why.
I'll just get down to business right away and give you the pick before I break down why. The Green Bay Packers will win their fourth Lombardi Trophy by a score of 24-21. There you have it. For the gamblers out there (I don't condone illegal activity, but to each his own), that means take the Steelers if you're going against the spread (Packers by 3.5) and take the over (the over/under is 44.5). I can't help you on the stupid ones like who's going to score first or who's going to win the coin toss, mainly because those don't matter and I don't care. The only other one where I'm willing to help you is with MVP, where I think Aaron Rodgers is a pretty good bet.
I've tossed this around in my head for pretty much the entire two weeks thinking about which team I thought would win. Yes, I jumped on the Packers bandwagon in mid-December and said before the playoffs that Green Bay was the best team and was playing the best, which is always a dangerous combination. But I couldn't just write off the Steelers with their awesome defense and ridiculous amount of experience. So I went looking for an X-factor, and that's why I'm sticking with the Packers. I think Rodgers will be that X-factor.
Remember three years ago when Brett Favre retired the first time, only to come back a few months later as a Jet? I don't think many Packers fans do, either. Replacing a Hall of Fame quarterback is incredibly tough (ask Jay Feidler or Brian Griese), but Rodgers has thrived since taking over for Favre. Now he has a chance to join Steve Young (the most successful Hall of Fame replacement ever) in leading his team to a Super Bowl title without that Hall of Famer. (In fairness, Montana and Young are BOTH in the Hall of Fame, but still.) At the end of Super Bowl XXIX, where he threw six touchdown passes and was named MVP, Young jokingly asked his 49ers teammates to "take the monkey off his back." Rodgers has a chance to do just that tomorrow night. I think he takes the opportunity by the horns and doesn't let go until the Lombardi Trophy goes home to Green Bay.
Both of these teams have great defenses, but the two-week break between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl normally favors the offenses. I don't think that will be the case this year, though. Dick LeBeau and Dom Capers are both defensive genuises, so neither one should have a problem developing a defensive game plan that's different than the ones that have been seen and broken down on film over and over and over again duirng the past two weeks. As a result, I think this game will be more Giants-Patriots than Saints-Colts. Besides, the defensive playmakers (led by Troy Polamalu and Clay Matthews) are sick.
That's another reason I'm taking the Packers. Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey won't play. That creates a big hole in the offensive line that Matthews and B.J. Raji should be able to run right through. Neither team has much of a running game, and that hole in the line will make it even tougher for Rashad Mendenhall. In each of their last two Super Bowls, a Steelers wide receiver has been the MVP (Hines Ward in XL, Santonio Holmes in XLIII). With Mendenhall neutralized, Big Ben will have to throw the ball in order to win once again. But this time the cornerbacks his receivers are going up against (Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, plus the safety help from Nick Collins) are significantly better than the cornerbacks that the Seahawks and Cardinals threw at them. Roethlisberger hasn't been great in either of his Super Bowl wins. He'll need to be to win a third. But if he does, and one of the Steelers receivers also has a big day, Pittsburgh might take home a seventh Super Bowl title.
I'm a big fan of Rick Reilly, and he argues that most of America will be rooting for the Packers because the Packers ARE Green Bay. Since I'm a Giants fan and New York is nothing at all like Green Bay, there's no way for me to possibly utilize this argument as a reason why I think the Packers are going to win. Instead I'll base it on football. Both defenses are so good, it's a toss up. The Steelers have used the big play to win both of their recent titles, but this time I think the Packers make the big plays. And those big plays will come on offense. Rodgers has a Pro Bowl receiver in Donald Driver. I see a long touchdown pass or two coming from this duo. They're not going to do what they did against the Falcons. But they don't need to. One or two big plays will be enough.
But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Steelers win--for the same reasons why I think the Packers will. Either way, this could go down as another Super Bowl classic. And it's going to be mighty entertaining to watch.
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