The NIL and the Transfer Portal

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, two topics have been brought up often by numerous coaches in their press conferences.  The NIL and the transfer portal.  While the coaches' opinions on them varied, there did seem to be a consensus that they've both changed college basketball forever.  And that they've both gotten out of control and require some sort of reform or, at the very least, regulation.

Let's start with the NIL.  The NIL is never going away.  Now that the cat's out of the bag, there's no putting it back in.  Especially since a number of states have passed laws that essentially ban schools from limiting student-athletes' ability to earn money, whether it's through the NIL or other means.  Those various state laws have created confusion, though, and have a chance to create an unlevel playing field based on what's legal where.  That's why the NCAA, conferences and schools want there to be some sort of federal guidance.

No one wants to get rid of the NIL.  Everyone seems to be in agreement that it's a good thing.  But they've also seen the impact they directly have, not just on recruiting, but on team building.  Which isn't just a basketball thing, either.  We've seen it in football and other sports, too.  Players are essentially free agents on the open market looking for the best NIL deal.  It's not about the team, school, program or coach.

The NIL has had another profound impact on college basketball, which is either a positive or a negative depending on how you look at it.  Because of the NIL, guys are staying in school longer.  They're making plenty of money.  In some cases their making more through NIL deals than they would playing professionally, so there's no benefit in being a one-and-done college player just to ride the bench in the pros (whether it's in the NBA, Europe or elsewhere).  The NBA knows this, too.  Which is why they shut down G League Elite, the NBA-sponsored team in the G League for post-high school players who aren't eligible for the NBA Draft yet.

Also because guys are staying in school longer, rosters now have many more upperclassmen than they did even a few years ago.  Which isn't a bad thing at all.  But it also means freshmen aren't getting as much playing time.  More importantly, between COVID years and transfers, there aren't as many scholarships available for freshmen.  In the one-and-done era, teams were built around highly touted recruits (or recruiting classes) that would stay for a year or two before being replaced with a new class of highly regarded recruits.

It's crazy to think that we're longing for those days and looking back at them fondly, especially since the biggest problem people had during the one-and-done era was the near-constant roster turnover.  We still have that near-constant roster turnover, only for a very different reason.  The transfer portal.  Which is something that has gotten completely out of hand.

In 2021, the NCAA changed the transfer rules for football and basketball (as well as baseball and men's hockey) to put them in line with other sports.  Student-athletes are no longer required to sit out a year if they transfer using the portal, and they can enter the portal simply by telling their current school that they want to transfer.  Once their name's in the portal, coaches and staff from other schools are allowed to contact them.  Basically, they're being recruited all over again.

Among the many problems with the portal, one is the most glaring.  It opens the day after championship selections are announced.  Which means while 68 teams are preparing for the NCAA Tournament, everybody else is having their roster stripped bare because their players are entering the transfer portal.  In the three days between Selection Sunday and the First Round of the NCAA Tournament (not including the First Four), more than 300 players entered the portal.  That's ridiculous!

While there were other reasons at play, as well, that's why teams like St. John's and Oklahoma opted out of the NIT.  With guys entering the portal, they didn't have enough players left to field a team.  And their coaches were busy scouring the portal trying to scoop up anybody they could who they think will help their team.  Which is another part of the problem.  Because, since coaches can start contacting players immediately once they enter the portal, those non-tournament teams get first crack at the guys who do put their name in.  

Recruiting is already a grueling, year-round process.  Now these coaches have to recruit not just incoming freshmen, but potential transfers.  They also need to make sure they keep their own players happy so that they don't want to leave.  It's a miracle if they ever get a chance to actually coach!

Beyond needing to construct, in some cases, an entirely new roster every season, the transfer portal has all but eliminated program-building.  Gone are the days when a group of freshmen comes in, develops together, reaches an NCAA Tournament and leaves its mark on the program.  With the transfer portal, there's none of that.  If there isn't instant success, the players don't stay and the coach is likely out the door pretty soon, too.  They aren't given a chance to build something lasting by bringing in their guys to play in their system.

There are a few things the NCAA needs to do in order to fix the transfer portal, which disgruntled players are far too quick to take advantage of.  One is incredibly obvious and doesn't put teams at a disadvantage.  Instead of opening the portal the day after the selections are announced, you open it the day after the championship game.  This way, players have more time to think about it.  But, frankly, that's not even the reason why it should be pushed back.  It's because it's asinine to basically penalize teams for being good by letting the bad teams get a three-week head start on snatching up players in the portal.  Their focus during the NCAA Tournament should be on coaching and trying to win a championship.

I'm also not a fan of how freely players are able to transfer.  How many guys are there playing in the tournament who've played for a different school every year?  Why?  Are they NBA journeymen who keep getting cut?  You're obviously not attending any of these schools for academic reasons.  And, did you ever think that maybe if you're on school No. 4 in four years, the schools themselves might not be the problem?

Going to the same one-time transfer rule as other sports and dropping the requirement that they sit out a year made sense in theory and certainly seemed reasonable.  But, in the three years since it's been in place, we've certainly seen it abused.  And the "one-time" part certainly isn't being enforced, either.  If it was, maybe we wouldn't see guys "attending" four different schools in four years.  They get to do it once.  If they transfer again after that, they sit out a year.  Let's see how many guys try to transfer multiple times if that's put back into effect.

Certain exceptions, of course, can be made.  The same graduate transfer rules apply.  If you graduate and have eligibility left, you can absolutely use it somewhere else.  You put in the work and earned a college degree.  You shouldn't be penalized.  Likewise, if a coach leaves and you want to follow the coach who recruited you to their new job, that's fine.  You likely chose the coach, not the school.  The opposite applies too.  You don't necessarily have to follow your old coach, but you can leave your old school without penalty if the coach who recruited you is fired or leaves.  Those are the only exceptions.  I'm hesitant to include that "family hardship" exception because that one was abused plenty, too.

Most people can agree that a little guidance and regulation regarding the NIL, preferably from the federal level, will make that process clearer and easier for everyone to understand.  It would also hopefully help create some sort of national standard instead of varying from state to state like we have now.  Something absolutely must be done about the transfer portal, though.  Because, while the NIL has the potential to be very good, the transfer portal is ruining college basketball.

MLB 2024 (AL East)

Last season, three AL East teams made the playoffs.  This season, it's likely that the division will have three playoff teams again.  As for which three, that's anybody's guess.  Because an argument could be made for every team except Boston in the deepest division in Baseball.  And the Red Sox aren't exactly Oakland/Colorado level bad.  In fact, they'll probably have a better record than a lot of third-place teams.

Each of the other four has legitimate playoff hopes.  Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Toronto all made the playoffs last season and combined to win zero games.  The Rays and Orioles were the Rangers' first two victims, while the Blue Jays got swept by the Twins in the Wild Card Series.  The three of them had as many playoff wins as the Yankees, who are coming off their worst season in three decades.

That result obviously did not sit well with the Yankees.  It also figures to be a one-year aberration.  They sought to make sure of that during the offseason.  Whether it worked or not is the big question.  Because the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays aren't exactly going anywhere.  So, if you throw the Yankees back in the mix, you've got four teams in the mix for the division title.  Although, the Blue Jays are a step behind the others, so it's more like three.

What's crazy is that someone has to finish fourth in this division.  And, unless somebody ends up having a really down year, whoever that is will likely finish well above .500.  It also seems likely that they'll only be a few games behind the first-place team.  I expect it to be crowded at the top in the AL East.  No one will run away with it.  And it really could be any of three teams, all of whom should be playing in October.

1. Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore had the best record in the American League last season and has a young core that all but assures they'll be around for at least the next few years.  And I wouldn't be surprised if one of their new owner's first orders of business is to lock up Rutschman & Henderson long-term.  The Orioles have more guys coming, too.  That's to go with the other additions they've made.  They took a team that won 101 games last year and made it better.

Their biggest offseason coup was a trade with Milwaukee that brought them a legitimate ace in former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.  Bonus points for snagging him before the Yankees, who were also in on Burnes, could.  They also signed Craig Kimbrel to be their new closer, which they needed with an injured Felix Bautista likely to miss the entire season.  Then you throw in that loaded lineup stocked with young talent, and it wouldn't surprise anybody to see the Orioles finish atop the AL East again.  Except this time, people will see it coming.
Projected Lineup: Cedric Mullins-CF, Gunnar Henderson-SS, Adley Rutschman-C, Anthony Santander-RF, Austin Hays-LF, Ryan O'Hearn-DH, Ryan Mountcastle-1B, Ramon Urias-3B, Jordan Westburg-2B
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, Tyler Wells
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 92-70

2. New York Yankees: Not one single person within the organization or outside thinks the Yankees' 2023 season was acceptable.  So, Brian Cashman went out and immediately addressed last season's biggest problem--the lineup.  The Yankees struck early, landing Juan Soto in a massive trade with the Padres.  That trade also brought them Trent Grisham, while they also signed Alex Verdugo as a free agent.  Suddenly, they had an entirely new outfield.  And, get this, they got left-handed hitters!  Imagine that!  Left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium!  What a concept!

While they were able to significantly improve the lineup (even with DJ LeMahieu starting the season on the IL), they missed out on pretty much every rotation upgrade they sought.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed elsewhere, and trade targets Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease ended up in Baltimore and San Diego, respectively.  As a result, the only rotation upgrade they were able to make was Marcus Stroman, and that rotation depth will be tested early with Gerrit Cole injured.  And let's see how many relievers they end up going through between now and the end of the season.  Even still, they should be able to put last year's disaster behind them and return to the postseason.
Projected Lineup: Gleyber Torres-2B, Juan Soto-RF, Aaron Judge-CF, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Alex Verdugo-LF, Jose Trevino-C, Anthony Volpe-SS, Oswaldo Cabrera-3B
Projected Rotation: Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil
Closer: Clay Holmes
Projected Record: 90-72 (Wild Card)

3. Tampa Bay Rays: No matter what, the Rays are always there at the end of the season.  Tampa Bay never has the best team on paper.  That never matters.  They end up winning 90 games and making the playoffs anyway.  Which is a testament both to the organization's player development department and manager Kevin Cash, who always seems to push the right buttons and get the most out of his team.  So, even if they aren't as "good" as the Orioles and Yankees, there isn't a single person who doesn't think the Rays will be right there with them all season.

I fully expect this even though they traded ace Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers (along with Manuel Margot, who was then shipped to the Twins).  And they added to their already strong bullpen by bringing in Phil Maton from Houston.  They also snagged Amed Rosario, a career infielder who they'll be inserting as their everyday right fielder.  The lineup is the one area where I question if they'll be able to keep pace with the Orioles and Yankees, though.  Or the Blue Jays for that matter.  It's entirely possible that Tampa Bay doesn't get enough hitting and ends up finishing fourth.  But, again.  This is the Rays we're talking about.  They always find a way.
Projected Lineup: Yandy Diaz-1B, Brandon Lowe-2B, Randy Arozarena-LF, Isaac Paredes-3B, Harold Ramirez-DH, Amed Rosario-RF, Jose Caballero-SS, Jose Siri-CF, Rene Pinto-C
Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Tyler Alexander, Ryan Pepiot
Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)

4. Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto's gonna hit.  We know that much.  That is if everybody stays healthy and productive, of course.  That's always a key when you have a team full of mashers.  They made no attempt to re-sign Matt Chapman, instead bringing in Justin Turner to be their new DH.  Signing a DH creates its own problems, though, so Turner will have to play third base every once in a while if they want to give Vlad Guerrero Jr. or George Springer a DH day or if they want to keep Alejandro Kirk's bat in the lineup on the days Danny Jansen catches.

If they get a bounce back from Alek Manoah, their rotation could actually be pretty solid.  I'd even argue that it might be the best in the division while the Yankees are without Cole.  They've got four solid starters in Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi.  The bullpen is a question mark, but closer Jordan Romano isn't.  That's a lot they've got going for them.  If the Blue Jays played in the AL Central, they'd probably be the favorites.  In the AL East, though, they might only be the fourth-best team.  This division is THAT competitive!
Projected Lineup: George Springer-RF, Bo Bichette-SS, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Alejandro Kirk-C, Justin Turner-DH, Daulton Varsho-LF, Cavan Biggio-2B, Isiah Kiner-Falefa-3B, Kevin Kiermaier-CF
Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Alek Manoah
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 87-75

5. Boston Red Sox: It's weird to call the Red Sox the worst team in the division, but that's absolutely the case.  They're just not on the same level as the other four teams.  Simply put, they don't have the pitching to hang with them.  They traded Chris Sale to Atlanta and replaced him with Lucas Giolito, looking to get a bounce back from him from him after a disappointing 2023 in which he pitched for three different teams.  Except Giolito had Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire season, making their rotation once again a major weakness.

And, frankly, their lineup isn't much to write home about, either.  They've got Rafael Devers locked in for the next decade, but they don't really have much around him.  It's not the typical Red Sox lineup you'd think of.  And that could end up being their biggest problem.  I just don't see them scoring many runs.  Which is bad enough when you consider the other teams in their division, but is made even worse when you look at how shaky their pitching staff is.  They've got a great back end of the bullpen in Liam Hendriks and Kenley Jansen, so they're in good shape if they're ahead after seven.  How often will that be, though?
Projected Lineup: Ceddanne Rafaela-CF, Trevor Story-2B, Rafael Devers-3B, Triston Casas-1B, Masataka Yoshida-DH, Jarren Duran-LF, Wilyer Abreu-RF, Emmanuel Valdez-2B, Connor Wong-C
Projected Rotation: Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 79-83

MLB 2024 (AL Central)

The AL Central is probably the worst division in baseball.  In fact, there's no probably about it.  The AL Central IS the worst division in baseball.  Which means we're most likely looking at the division winner making the playoffs and that's it, and that team maybe not even needing 90 wins.  And that team will almost certainly be either Minnesota or Cleveland.

Kansas City seems committed to its rebuild, but already has the foundation for a future led by Bobby Witt Jr.  The White Sox were expected to be good last year, but weren't.  This season, the expectations are much lower.  In fact, they're not expected to be any good at all.  As for the Tigers, who knows?  They finished third last season and are better than the Royals and White Sox.  But can they finish in front of both the Twins and Guardians, too?

It's because of how mediocre the AL Central as a whole is that I think this division will be completely wide open.  On paper, Minnesota is the best team, but Cleveland should have the best pitching, and that could be enough to be the difference.  Or maybe one of the other three teams will surprise.  Doubtful, but not entirely out of the question either.

So, really, the AL Central is a crapshoot.  Which should actually make for a pretty tight division race.  Whether it's Minnesota or Cleveland, I don't see either one running away with the division the way the Guardians did in 2022 or the Twins did last year.  I'm really expecting it to be a one- or two-game difference between winning the division (and the 3-seed in the AL playoffs) and staying home in October.

1. Minnesota Twins: Last season, the Twins didn't just won the division, they snapped their playoff losing streak!  Minnesota even advanced to the Division Series!  And they did it with Sonny Gray pitching at a Cy Young-caliber level.  Gray is now pitching in St. Louis.  So, it's up to Pablo Lopez, who was also very good in his first season with the Twins, to anchor the rotation.  And that pitching staff will really be the key if they're going to repeat as division champions.  Their bullpen is highly suspect, though.

On the offensive side, Carlos Santana has added the Twins to his Immaculate Grid repertoire.  They've also added Manuel Margot in a trade with the Dodgers (who he never actually played for).  The interesting thing about the Margot acquisition is that his best position is center field, where they already have Byron Buxton, who finally displayed that massive talent everyone's long known he has last season.  A healthy Buxton, a healthy Carlos Correa and a healthy Max Kepler, combined with a Santana who's actually healthy and productive, should make for a pretty solid lineup that will score plenty of runs.  Which they may need to.  Especially if the pitching doesn't hold up its end of the bargain.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Carlos Santana-1B, Carlos Correa-SS, Max Kepler-RF, Alex Kirilloff-DH, Royce Lewis-3B, Edouard Julien-2B, Manuel Margot-LF, Ryan Jeffers-C
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Chris Paddack
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Projected Record: 85-77

2. Cleveland Guardians: Cleveland's bread and butter has always been its pitching.  The Guardians' rotation is the strength of the team.  When healthy.  That's a key qualifier.  Last season, their rotation wasn't particularly healthy, which is a big reason why the Twins finished ahead of them.  Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, especially, need to stay healthy.  They also really only need to give them six innings.  Because Cleveland has a lights-out bullpen, headlined by All*Star closer Emmanuel Clase.

They'll need the pitching staff to be the strength of the team, too.  Because Jose Ramirez doesn't have much help in the lineup.  They've got a legit superstar who gives them 30 & 100 every year at third base, but not really much else around him.  If they're in the mix at the deadline, I can see them adding a bat.  Especially since they're relying on a lot of similar hitters.  They've got a lot of leadoff-type guys, but not really much power.  Outside of Ramirez, the only real power threat in the lineup is Josh Naylor, and even he's more of a contact hitter.  Figuring out how to squeeze runs out of this lineup is the biggest challenge for first-time manager Stephen Vogt.
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan-LF, Ramon Laureano-RF, Jose Ramirez-3B, Josh Naylor-1B, Myles Straw-CF, Andres Gimenez-2B, Austin Hedges-C, Will Brennan-DH, Brayan Rocchio-SS
Projected Rotation: Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Projected Record: 82-80

3. Detroit Tigers: Call me crazy, but I really think the Tigers have a shot at making some noise this season.  They're still probably a year or two away from the playoffs, but they also really remind me of last year's Orioles.  This is a team on the rise.  All of the high draft picks they got from those years of not being good are either already in the Majors or close, and they've made some smart free agent additions either as regulars or placeholders until those other guys are ready.  And it may work!

These aren't the Verlander-Scherzer Tigers, though, which is why I'm not sure they break through just yet.  They don't have the pitching of Cleveland.  They're definitely on their way, though, as they officially begin a new era with franchise mainstay Miguel Cabrera now retired.  This is Spencer Torkelson's team now, and he'll be the cornerstone around which they build.  Even if it's not this year, it'll be soon.  Either way, they showed great improvement in 2023, and they should improve even more in 2024.
Projected Lineup: Parker Meadows-CF, Spencer Torkelson-1B, Javier Baez-SS, Mark Canha-LF, Riley Greene-RF, Kerry Carpenter-DH, Gio Urshela-3B, Jake Rogers-C, Colt Keith-2B
Projected Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Reese Olson
Closer: Andrew Chafin
Projected Record: 77-85

4. Chicago White Sox: For the most part, the projections for the White Sox this season are not very favorable.  They had a pretty rapid fall from a division title in 2021 to 100 losses in 2023 with essentially the same roster.  That roster has now been overhauled significantly, with Tim Anderson the most notable name no longer applying his trade on the South Side.  They also traded ace Dylan Cease to the Padres, so they're clearly closer to rebuild mode than being all-in.

Still, though, I don't think it's possible for the White Sox to be as bad as they were when they completely bottomed out last season.  Don't get me wrong.  They won't be good.  I'm just not sure they'll be as bad as some people are predicting.  They've got too many talented players like Luis Robert Jr. and Yoan Moncada to lose 100 games two years in a row.  They're a long way from the playoffs, but they could surprise.  If everything goes right and everyone stays healthy, I don't think it's crazy to suggest they could finish around .500.  Even if they don't, they aren't as bad as some other teams, so the 100-loss projections seem a bit harsh.
Projected Lineup: Andrew Benintendi-LF, Paul DeJong-SS, Yoan Moncada-3B, Luis Robert Jr.-CF, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Eloy Jimenez-DH, Nicky Lopez-2B, Dominic Fletcher-RF, Martin Maldonado-C
Projected Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Michael Soroka, Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, Nick Nastrini
Closer: Michael Kopech
Projected Record: 73-89

5. Kansas City Royals: Now that Miguel Cabrera is retired, Salvador Perez has become the elder statesman of the AL Central.  He's been through a lot in Kansas City.  He's seen the Royals go from terrible to World Series champions back to terrible.  Now, he's on the tail end of his career, but he can still provide some pop.  So much pop, in fact, that it's very likely he'll be used as the DH on days he doesn't catch.  More importantly, he's a veteran presence in the clubhouse who's ready to hand over the leadership reins to Bobby Witt Jr.

Much like Spencer Torkelson in Detroit, Witt will be the foundation upon which the Royals build their next championship-caliber team.  They are further behind in that process than the Tigers, though.  Whereas Detroit has a lot of homegrown prospects, Kansas City's roster is stocked with lower-priced free agents.  It's simply a fact of life for small-market teams, but it's also not a very encouraging sign.  Is Kansas City the worst team in baseball?  Not by a long shot.  They're not even the worst team in the American League.  And, if the experts are right and my feelings about the White Sox are totally wrong, they might not even be the worst team in the AL Central.  I have trouble finding where the Royals will get wins from, though, so I've still got them at the bottom of the standings.
Projected Lineup: MJ Melendez-LF, Bobby Witt Jr.-SS, Salvador Perez-C, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Nelson Velasquez-DH, Kyle Isbel-CF, Vinnie Pasquantino-1B, Maikel Garcia-3B, Adam Frazier-2B
Projected Rotation: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh
Closer: Will Smith
Projected Record: 64-98

MLB 2024 (AL West)

We're now less than a week away from the official Opening Day for the other 28 teams.  Less than a week until the Texas Rangers unveil their first-ever World Series championship banner.  It felt like forever that the Astros have dominated the AL West, but last season was different.  It was the Rangers who led the division for most of the season.  Houston ultimately caught them, but it was Texas who ended up lifting the trophy in the end.

Ironically, it was the Astros having the AL West tiebreaker that set the Rangers up on their run.  If Texas has the tiebreaker, they have the first-round bye and Division Series home field, not Houston.  Ending up as the wild card team gave them the "more difficult route," but it also set them up on their incredible road to the title (pun intended).  The Rangers don't go 11-0 on the road in the playoffs if the win the AL West (which they still technically did since they finished tied).

And, let's not forget, Seattle is only two years removed from a playoff appearance.  The Mariners are nowhere near as good as either Texas team, but they're also not as bad as either California team, so a third-place division finish seems to be in the cards.  And, who knows?  If they can get to 86-87 wins, maybe they'll sneak in there as the third wild card.

Will anyone still care about the Angels now that Ohtani's gone?  Will his being gone actually end up being a good thing?  As for the A's, where will they play next season?  Their lease is up after this year and their stadium in Las Vegas won't be ready for a while.  Is it sad that that's the most intriguing storyline about that team entering the season?

1. Texas Rangers: They'd been building towards it.  Then last year, all the pieces fell into place.  And, frankly, it seemed a long time coming.  The Rangers play in a major market and act like a major market team.  And they never spent poorly.  Those guys just hadn't made enough of a difference yet.  Until last season, when everything Chris Young touched turned to gold.  He landed Jacob deGrom as a free agent before deGrom's inevitable injury led to him landing Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery at the deadline.  Those two, along with Nathan Eovaldi, were lights out in the postseason.

Scherzer and deGrom both start this season on the IL, and Montgomery, while he may still come back, remains unsigned.  So, the rotation isn't as strong to start the year as it will be later on.  But it's still pretty good.  And they've got a lineup that more than makes up for it.  The Rangers return everybody but Mitch Garver who started Game 5 in Arizona, and Ezequiel Duran is poised to take over at DH.  They'll get a challenge in their own division from the Astros, but the defending champions are arguably the strongest team top-to-bottom in the American League.  Now that they've won it all, the expectations are higher.  As they should be.  Because this team is damn good!
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien-2B, Corey Seager-SS, Adolis Garcia-RF, Josh Jung-3B, Ezequiel Duran-DH, Evan Carter-LF, Nathaniel Lowe-1B, Jonah Heim-C, Leody Taveras-CF
Projected Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford
Closer: Jose Leclerc
Projected Record: 93-69

2. Houston Astros: Look who's suddenly not the top dogs anymore!  The Astros had an aura of invincibility around them and, frankly, probably started getting a little too comfortable.  Then they realized the Rangers would be formidable and it lit a fire under their asses.  Houston continued its ALCS streak, but dropped Game 7 to the Rangers and suddenly find themselves as the second-best team in the division after nearly a decade at the top.  So, how did they respond?  By going out and getting the best closer available, Josh Hader.

Even with Hader in the back end of the bullpen, Houston's pitching is full of question marks, particularly surrounding the health of their starters.  The good thing is they have about seven starting pitchers, so even if Valdez or Verlander goes down, they have a Luis Garcia they can plug in.  The lineup, meanwhile, is starting to see the effects of free agents leaving.  Michael Brantley is gone, which shifts Chas McCormick to left and installs Jake Meyers as the starting center fielder.  They've still got their core guys, though.  So, as long as Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez and Tucker stay healthy, they'll do their thing as the Astros will go on their inevitable march to October.  They've become postseason fixtures.  Don't expect that to stop this season.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Lance Bregman-3B, Yordan Alvarez-DH, Kyle Tucker-RF, Jose Abreu-1B, Jeremy Pena-SS, Chas McCormick-LF, Jake Meyers-CF, Yainer Diaz-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 92-70 (Wild Card)

3. Seattle Mariners: It really seemed like Seattle's window would be more than just the one year.  But 2022 wasn't the start of a long run of playoff appearances, and they fell back to their usual around .500 selves last season.  Frankly, I don't see how this year will be much different.  Which isn't a knock against the Mariners.  It's just an acknowledgement that Texas and Houston are both better than them, and a lot will need to go right (or wrong for the Rangers and/or Astros) for Seattle to overtake them in the AL West.

Their lineup around Jose Rodriguez is OK, not great.  They signed Mitch Garver away from Texas to be their DH, and I like Jorge Polanco as a table setter.  Is the lineup as deep 1-9 as the Rangers and Astros or the teams in the AL East they'll be fighting for a wild card, though?  No, it's not.  These aren't the Griffey, A Rod, Edgar Martinez Mariners.  They don't have a Randy Johnson, either.  Luis Castillo is a good Major League pitcher, but he wouldn't be a No. 1 in most other rotations.  Probably more like a No. 2 or 3.  And, aside from Ryne Stanek, I've never heard of anybody in their bullpen, which can't be a good sign!  As I said, they aren't bad, they aren't particularly good.  So, it's reasonable to think they'll hover around .500.
Projected Lineup: Jorge Polanco-2B, J.P. Crawford-SS, Jose Rodrigez-CF, Mitch Garver-DH, Mitch Haniger-RF, Ty France-1B, Cal Raleigh-C, Luke Raley-LF, Josh Rojas-3B
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo
Closer: Ryne Stanek
Projected Record: 82-80

4. Los Angeles Angels: During that whole time they had both Mike Trout & Shohei Ohtani, the two best players on the planet, they didn't make the playoffs once!  It's been a decade since they've made it, and they haven't won a postseason game since 2009.  So, other than the ticket sales and increased exposure, having Trout & Ohtani together didn't really make much of a difference!  That's why I think Ohtani being gone might actually be good for the Angels.  They don't have all that extra attention and all that extra media just following around one player.  The rest of the team is no longer the supporting cast in the Ohtani Show.  Not to mention the fact that it opens up the DH spot for somebody else...or to rotate among starters so they can get off their feet...or to get an injured guy's bat in the lineup even if he can't play the field.

With all that in mind, Ron Washington's got a big task at hand.  Because this roster has too many holes (the result of Arte Moreno's years of spending big and whiffing on free agents).  They still have Trout, but there isn't much around him.  And I think they've given up hope that Anthony Rendon will ever be both healthy AND productive.  But, hey, at least they're better than Oakland/Las Vegas!  And when they don't make the playoffs this year, the number of people asking why will be significantly less.
Projected Lineup: Taylor Ward-LF, Brandon Drury-DH, Mike Trout-CF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Mickey Moniak-RF, Logan O'Hoppe-C, Nolan Schaunel-1B, Luis Rengifo-2B, Zach Neto-SS
Projected Rotation: Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Jose Soriano
Closer: Carlos Estevez
Projected Record: 74-88
 
5. Oakland Athletics: What I find funny about the whole situation with the A's is how the fans are suddenly so passionate now that they've announcing they're planning on leaving.  I know there are a lot of factors at play here, but if they were this passionate to begin with, then maybe they would've still been showing up at games and the team would actually be generating some revenue.  It's not as simple as I just made it sound.  Obviously.  But this is much different than the Expos.  The city is to blame, too, and ownership certainly could be more invested in putting a competitive team out there.  I'm calling those "fans" out for their sudden undying love for the A's, though.

Anyway, whether this is their last season in Oakland or not, it won't be a good one.  I'll be absolutely shocked if this team doesn't have 100 losses, and I fully expect them to have the greatest odds in the 2025 Draft lottery.  There are some worthwhile players on the roster, though.  Brent Rooker can flat out hit, Ryan Noda and Shea Langeliers aren't bad, and they were wise to scoop up J.D. Davis to play third base after the Giants cut him.  He'll provide some veteran leadership for a team that'll need it.  Because they have absolutely no pitching, so they'll need to score a lot with an offense that isn't much better than the pitching staff.
Projected Lineup: Esteury Ruiz-CF, J.D. Davis-3B, Brent Rooker-DH, Seth Brown-RF, Ryan Noda-1B, Shea Langeliers-C, JJ Bleday-LF, Zack Gelof-2B, Nick Allen-SS
Projected Rotation: Paul Blackburn, JP Sears, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Joe Boyle
Projected Record: 56-106

MLB 2024 (NL East)

The NL East is very similar to the NL West in one major regard.  The Braves, like the Dodgers, are unfairly good.  In fact, if there's any team in the National League who can give the Dodgers a run for their money as the "best team," it's Atlanta.  The Phillies, meanwhile, would be the clear favorites if they played in any other division (except maybe the NL West).

I also give the Phillies and Mets credit.  They've got the resources to try and spend their way to a division title.  They've both tried it, in fact, and it didn't work.  Now they're taking a smarter approach.  They know the Braves are better than them and have the division title on lockdown.  So, why go after the division when they just need to make the playoffs?  Which means they just need to be one of the six best teams in the NL.

It's not crazy to think all three can make the playoffs.  Frankly, it would be a shock to not see at least the Braves and Phillies.  They're probably the second- and third-best teams in the National League.  The Mets are more of a question mark.  They have the talent, but they're also the Mets.  Can they make the playoffs?  Absolutely!  Can they be so far under .500 that they sell off their parts at the deadline?  Also absolutely.

Then there are the Marlins and Nationals.  Miami was the third NL East team in the playoffs last season, losing to the Phillies in the Wild Card Series.  Was that a one-year anomaly or the start of something?  (Don't forget, they also made the playoffs in 2020.)  Washington, meanwhile, is still in the midst of a rebuild.

1. Atlanta Braves: Atlanta's dynasty in the 90s was built around its three Hall of Fame starting pitchers.  While they don't have a Maddux, Glavine and/or Smoltz in their current rotation, they have ridiculous starting pitching depth that other teams can only envy.  The Braves have seven legit starters, two of whom (Bryce Elder & A.J. Smith-Shawver) are starting the season at Triple A.  Then they've got Raisel Iglesias waiting at the end of games.

Their offense ain't to shabby either.  Atlanta has the advantage over the Dodgers on the mound, and at the plate, it's close.  Everybody's locked up to long-term deals, too, so they didn't need to make many offseason moves on the offensive side, but they did anyway.  They brought back Adam Duvall to be their fourth outfielder, while they traded for Jarred Kelenic to be their new left fielder.  Kelenic has never lived up to the potential that made him a Top 10 pick, but he had a great Spring and doesn't need to be "The Man."  Maybe a change of scenery is what he needed.
Projected Lineup: Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Ozzie Albies-2B, Matt Olson-1B, Austin Riley-3B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Sean Murphy-C, Orlando Arcia-SS, Jarred Kelenic-LF, Michael Harris II-CF
Projected Rotation: Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 95-67

2. Philadelphia Phillies: After winning the pennant in 2022, the Phillies might've been even better last season, even though it didn't end in a return trip to the World Series.  One of the things they did last season was out of necessity.  They moved Bryce Harper to first base.  Well, as it turns out, that went so well, they decided to make it permanent.  That also freed up the DH spot for Kyle Schwarber, which improves their defense since they won't have to stick him in left field anymore.

They also kept their 1-2 of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler together.  Those two will need to stay healthy for them to have any prayer of finishing ahead of the Braves (which, again, I'm not even sure they particularly care about).  I also really like their bullpen, even without new Oriole Craig Kimbrel.  Really, though, the Phillies just need to not screw up and they'll get back to the playoffs.  Even if they have to deal with an injury or two, they'll overcome it or, worst case, make a trade at the deadline.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C, Bryce Harper-1B, Kyle Schwarber-DH, Nick Castellanos-RF, Alec Bohm-3B, Brandon Marsh-LF, Bryson Stott-2B, Johan Rojas-CF
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull
Closer: Gregory Soto
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)

3. New York Mets: Last year, the Mets were all-in at the beginning of the season.  They had a rotation headlined by future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  Those two both pitched in the postseason last season...against each other...in the ALCS.  The Mets cashed in their chips at midseason and started looking ahead to this year, where they're taking a new approach.  They didn't try to outspend teams this winter.  Instead, they were more measured and looked for players who fit what new manager Carlos Mendoza wants to do.  And in that area, they were successful.

Two of their additions came over from across town--Luis Severino and Harrison Bader.  Severino was an All*Star before his Yankees career fizzled out at the end, but he's a great low risk/high reward option who was worth taking a one-year flier.  They also added Sean Manaea, another former All*Star to the rotation.  They don't have the star power of Verlander and Scherzer.  But they're also considerably more affordable.  And, don't forget, closer Edwin Diaz is back after missing last season following his World Baseball Classic injury.
Projected Lineup: Brandon Nimmo-LF, Francisco Lindor-SS, Pete Alonso-1B, Starling Marte-RF, Mark Vientos-DH, Francisco Alvarez-C, Brett Baty-3B, Harrison Bader-CF, Jeff McNeil-2B
Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 84-78

4. Miami Marlins: Can the Marlins do it again?  This season, they won't sneak up on anybody.  But did that taste of the postseason set this team on a new path?  Unfortunately, they'll be without their ace Sandy Alcantara all year, so that severely complicates things for the Marlins.  They simply don't have the pitching depth to be without Alcantara for even a short period, let alone the entire season!  That's why I think we'll see the Marlins take a step back this year.  Even though they're actually in pretty good shape offensively, they simply don't have the pitching.

Luis Arraez came over in a trade with the Twins last season and followed up his tremendous 2022 in Minnesota with an outstanding season for the Marlins.  Now alongside him will be Tim Anderson, who the White Sox decided to let walk in free agency.  That's a formidable middle, both in the infield and the lineup.  Josh Bell also returns after coming over from Cleveland at the deadline last season.  He's been on four different teams since the start of 2022, so how will the stability of a second season in Miami impact his production?  It was great to see them in the playoffs last year.  To think they can return might be a little optimistic.  I'm not even sure they finish .500.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Luis Arraez-2B, Josh Bell-1B, Avisail Garcia-DH, Jake Burger-3B, Jesus Sanchez-RF, Bryan de la Cruz-LF, Nick Fortes-C, Jazz Chisholm Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, Ryan Weathers
Closer: Tanner Scott
Projected Record: 75-87

5. Washington Nationals: When the Nationals signed Joey Gallo, the jokes came fast and furious.  Although, I think Washington might be the perfect place for him to try and resurrect his career.  There's no pressure to win there at all, so, if he struggles, it doesn't really make much of a difference to the team's success.  And if he doesn't, then it's mission accomplished for him, and the Nationals can either keep him or convert him into draft picks by sending him off to a contender in July.  Draft picks that can be used to build their next championship-caliber team when they're ready to contend again in a few years.

That strategy has already worked for the Nationals once, so who's to say it won't again?  They won't be as bad as the pre-Strasburg, pre-Harper teams when the franchise arrived in D.C. two decades ago.  They just won't be particularly good, either.  A 100-loss season could definitely be on the horizon.  They aren't the worst team in the National League.  That's the Rockies.  But the Nationals don't stand a chance in this division and they know that.
Projected Lineup: Victor Robles-CF, Nick Senzel-3B, Joey Meneses-DH, Lane Thomas-RF, Stone Garrett-LF, Keibert Ruiz-C, Joey Gallo-1B, CJ Abrams-SS, Luis Garcia Jr.-2B
Projected Rotation: Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, Mackenzie Gore, Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin
Closer: Hunter Harvey
Projected Record: 60-102

MLB 2024 (NL Central)

The NL Central is probably the most unpredictable of the six divisions.  By "unpredictable," I don't mean something weird's gonna happen and somebody will come out of nowhere to be playing in October.  What I do mean is that it's the hardest division to predict.  I can easily see four of the five teams winning the division, and I can just as easily see them each losing 90 games.

Just look at the Cardinals last year.  They were one of the preseason favorites in the division, then went on to have a miserable season!  But would it surprise anybody if they completely turned it around this year and won the division?  Same with the Reds.  Cincinnati's an up-and-coming team.  If they get enough pitching, can they arrive?  The defending division champion Brewers are kind of like Tampa Bay.  They manage to be good every year regardless.  Although, their manager, Craig Counsell is now in Chicago with a Cubs team that can really go either way.  The Cubs making the playoffs wouldn't surprise me at all.  Neither would them finishing well under .500.

So, how will the NL Central play out?  My best guess is that the Brewers will once again do what they do, but the Cardinals will keep it close before Milwaukee wins the division by a game or two.  Even with Counsell at the helm, the Cubs will hover around .500 all season, while Cincinnati doesn't have enough pitching to hang in the race.  As for the Pirates...well, they'll also be there.

There's one other important thing worth noting regarding the NL Central.  While 90ish wins will probably be enough to win the division, it may not be enough for a wild card.  Not with how loaded the East and West are.  So, it's entirely possible that second place in the NL Central gets you absolutely nothing!  Which makes winning the division that much more paramount.

1. St. Louis Cardinals: Everything that could possibly go wrong in St. Louis last season did.  As a result, the Cardinals had their worst year since 1995.  Which also makes them a prime candidate for a rebound in 2024.  The Cardinals and Yankees are probably the two teams that seem most likely to make a complete turnaround after an extremely disappointing season last year.  And the Cardinals sure made moves that will almost certainly help them improve and put 2023 behind them.

Most notably, St. Louis addressed the pitching staff.  They brought in two guys whose teams made the playoffs last year (Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson), as well as a veteran (Lance Lynn) who's pitched for them in the World Series twice.  Three starters with proven track records to join Miles Mikolas in a revamped rotation.  If they can give the Cardinals anywhere near the type of production they have throughout their careers, this could be a playoff team.  Because we all know they're gonna hit.  They've got Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado anchoring the lineup, Willson Contreras can't possibly be as bad as he was last year, and they added another veteran presence with multiple World Series rings in Brandon Crawford (who it'll be weird to not see in a Giants uniform).  Last year, everything went wrong.  If things go right this year, the Cardinals can be a playoff team.
Projected Lineup: Dylan Carlson-CF, Jordan Walker-RF, Nolan Arenado-3B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Willson Contreras-C, Tommy Edman-SS, Matt Carpenter-DH, Brendan Donovan-LF, Brandon Crawford-2B
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Zack Thompson
Closer: Giovanny Gallegos
Projected Record: 91-71

1. Milwaukee Brewers: Both Brandon Woodruff and Devin Williams will miss the beginning of the season.  Williams is expected to be out a "significant" amount of time.  That could be a devastating blow for a Brewers team that's also missing Corbin Burnes, who was traded to the Orioles.  If there's a team that can weather losses like that to its pitching staff, though, it's Milwaukee.  They're in the race no matter what every year.  Although, this season we'll find out whether that was because of the players or because of Craig Counsell or a combination of both.

I'm also not entirely sold on their lineup.  A lot of unfamiliar names and some veterans looking for a bounce back.  Gary Sanchez, for example, is projected to be their starting DH.  They've also brought in Rhys Hoskins, who missed all of last year and ended up losing his job in the process since the Phillies decided to move Bryce Harper to first base full-time.  Hoskins and William Contreras will need to provide production in the middle of the lineup, and Christian Yelich will have to play like the MVP he once was.  So far in Spring Training, the returns look good.  Can they keep it going throughout the season?  If they can, and you mix in a little Brewer Magic, a playoff berth doesn't seem out of the question at all.
Projected Lineup: Willy Adames-SS, Christian Yelich-LF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, William Contreras-C, Sal Frelick-RF, Jackson Chourio-CF, Gary Sanchez-DH, Joey Ortiz-3B, Brye Turang-2B
Projected Rotation: Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Colin Rea, Robert Gasser
Closer: Joel Payamps
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)

3. Chicago Cubs: After reviving his career with the Cubs last season, Cody Belliger re-signed.  It took a while for it to happen, but it was the best move for both sides.  Because if he can keep it going and Craig Counsell can work some of that magic he worked year after year in Milwaukee, the Cubs could be a playoff team.  But they've spent a lot on managers before (Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Joe Maddon) and it didn't necessarily work out, so that's definitely an area of potential concern for a team that appears to be in win-now mode.

And they can win now.  That's the craziest thing.  All the pieces are there, and I can see them adding guys at the deadline to make a run for the playoffs.  The lineup is good, but they need Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Co. to stay healthy and productive.  The same goes for the pitching staff.  They scored a big coup in Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga, who slots in after Justin Steele and Kyle Hendricks.  They also snagged Hector Neris for the back end of the bullpen.  So, no, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Cubs playing in October.  It would require a lot going right, though.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-LF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Cody Bellinger-CF, Patrick Wisdom-DH, Christopher Morel-3B, Seiya Suzuki-RF, Michael Busch-1B, Nico Hoerner-2B, Yan Gomes-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks
Closer: Hector Neris
Projected Record: 81-81

4. Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto is no longer a member of the Cincinnati Reds.  That's such a weird sentence to write and a crazy thing to even think about, isn't it?  The reason why they moved on from the franchise icon is because they're committed to a youth movement.  And, frankly, I don't blame them.  Because these young guys are good!  And that's why I can actually see the Reds as a sleeper playoff contender.  It's unlikely that they'll get in, but they'll hang around until mid-August and get you thinking about how good this team might be in a year or two.

Cincinnati also has an All*Star closer in Alexis Diaz, who had 37 saves last season.  Getting the ball to Diaz could be a problem, though.  And it's the one thing I think will hold the Reds back.  Their rotation leaves a lot to be desired.  Although, considering how their last Yankees castoff starting pitcher went, Frankie Montas will probably make the All*Star team.  The lineup is set.  The back of the bullpen is set with Diaz.  The starting rotation is the one area the Reds need to address if they're gonna be a playoff team.  I don't think that'll happen this year.  But in 2025 or 2026, it certainly could.
Projected Lineup: Elly De La Cruz-SS, Jonathan India-DH, Spencer Steer-LF, Jeimer Candelario-3B, Christian Encarnacion-Strand-1B, Will Benson-RF, Tyler Stephenson-C, TJ Friedl-CF, Matt McLain-2B
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Frankie Montas, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez
Closer: Alexis Diaz
Projected Record: 74-88

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh still has Mitch Keller and David Bednar to start the season.  The Pirates also still have Bryan Reynolds, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz.  You have to wonder if they'll all still be in Pittsburgh at season's end.  So is the life for a franchise that produces some really good young talent, only to trade it all away so that other teams can get better, turning those players into draft picks that they turn into new young talent.  And so goes the cycle.  Add Aroldis Chapman to that list, who's looking to do the same thing he did last year and sign a one-year deal with a bad team, then pitch well enough to get himself traded to a contender.  The Pirates knew that's what he was doing when they signed him, so I can't really knock either side for it as long as they're all OK with it.

While this year may not be much different in Pittsburgh, there's reason for the Pirates to be optimistic about the future.  They've actually got some pretty good players in the present, too, and they've added former Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez to give them some left-handed power, as well as Michael A. Taylor to play center field and lead off.  Pittsburgh's actually a great place for young players to get the opportunity to play, and that makes this team fun to watch.  Even if it isn't gonna win a lot of games.
Projected Lineup: Michael A. Taylor-CF, Oneil Cruz-SS, Bryan Reynolds-RF, Rowdy Tellez-1B, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Andrew McCutchen-DH, Jack Suwinski-LF, Yasmani Grandal-C, Ji Hwan Bae-2B
Projected Rotation: Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzalez, Bailey Falter, Martin Perez, Quinn Priester
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 65-97

MLB 2024 (NL West)

With the Dodgers and Padres starting the season this week in Korea, I had to change the order of my annual MLB preview.  I normally start with the AL East and end with the NL West.  But, since it's two NL West teams playing a week before everybody else, it wouldn't make sense not to start there.  Especially since the NL West is one of the easier divisions in all of baseball to forecast.

The Dodgers certainly flexed their financial muscle over the winter, committing half a billion dollars to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  They scored both of the two biggest free agents, basically solidifying their status as both a World Series favorite and one of the most hated teams in baseball for the next decade.  Although, being a World Series favorite in March doesn't guarantee you anything in October.  The Dodgers, in fact, have lost in the Division Series to another NL West team in each of the last two years.

Last year, it was the Diamondbacks who knocked them off en route to a surprise World Series appearance.  It would be foolish to think they can finish ahead of the Dodgers over the course of 162 games, but as they proved last year, all you need is get a wild card, then anything can happen.  And Arizona will definitely be in the wild card mix.  I think the Giants will, too, especially now that they've landed Blake Snell.

San Diego lost 60 percent of its starting rotation, so they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees for every young starting pitcher they had (and could use right about now).  They knew that they had no chance of re-signing Soto, so it was a good move for the future.  As for the Rockies, they can't be as bad as they were last season.  Can they?

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Only one team can boast a 1-2-3 of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.  So, yeah, their lineup is pretty good!  The whole plan to have Betts play second (or is it short?) regularly is interesting, but who am I to question Dave Roberts?  He sure seems to know what he's doing.  And it freed up right field for Jason Heyward, so I can see the thought process behind it.  So, add Betts to the list of Dodgers utility guys (which now again includes Kike Hernandez).  What Hernandez's return gives them more than anything is depth, which they lacked last year.  They're even talking about having Ohtani play the outfield (I'll believe it when I see it).

I haven't even talked about their pitching staff yet.  A staff that doesn't even include Ohtani!  Even without him, the Dodgers have like seven starting pitchers (eight when Kershaw returns).  So, they're actually well-equipped to handle the inevitable pitching injuries for a change.  As much as I love Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen, I can see them adding a closer at the deadline.  Because, who we kidding?  A lot needs to go wrong for this team to not be playing in October!  And even then, they'll still be one of the six best teams in the National League.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-SS, Freddie Freeman-1B, Shohei Ohtani-DH, Will Smith-C, Max Muncy-3B, Jason Heyward-RF, Teoscar Hernandez-LF, Gavin Lux-2B, James Outman-CF
Projected Rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler
Closer: Blake Treinen
Projected Record: 102-60

2. Arizona Diamondbacks: No one saw the Diamondbacks coming last season.  That certainly won't be the case this year.  And, while it might be a stretch to say another World Series run is in the cards, they return essentially the same team, so a return trip to the playoffs isn't out of the question.  Not by a long shot.  Especially since I'd argue that they might even be a little better with Eugenio Suarez at third and Joc Pederson (who continues making his way through the NL West) DHing.

And they've got one of the best 1-2 combos atop the rotation in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.  Of course, you need more than two starters, which is what ultimately cost them in the World Series.  Eduardo Rodriguez gives them that third starter this year, and they'll also get a full season out of Brandon Pfaadt.  The rotation depth will be a key, and they especially need Gallen and Kelly to stay healthy.  The bullpen, anchored by closer Paul Sewald, is definitely one of their biggest strengths.
Projected Lineup: Corbin Carroll-RF, Ketel Marte-2B, Christian Walker-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Joc Pederson-DH, Alek Thomas-CF, Gabriel Moreno-C, Geraldo Perdomo-SS
Projected Rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Tommy Henry
Closer: Paul Sewald
Projected Record: 88-74 (Wild Card)

3. San Francisco Giants: It took almost the entire winter, but Blake Snell has finally signed!  He'll be a San Francisco Giant for the next two seasons.  So, now they have both last year's Cy Young winner and runner-up atop their rotation.  That'll certainly change their outlook big time!  Especially because their rotation was looking very thin behind Logan Webb.  What they do boast, however, is a first-rate closer in Camilo Doval!

They sure look like a team that'll need to win games 3-2.  Because their offense isn't as strong as their pitching.  Although, it's definitely gotten better.  After striking out on free agent after free agent over the past few years, they finally landed a big fish in Korean center fielder Jung Hoo Lee.  They've also added Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman, which makes their lineup much deeper than it's been in recent years.  I still think they're missing something.  But getting Snell was huge!  And that could be the difference between the Giants making the playoffs or not.
Projected Lineup: Jung Hoo Lee-CF, Michael Conforto-LF, Matt Chapman-3B, Joey Bart-C, Jorge Soler-DH, Mike Yastrzemski-RF, LaMonte Wade Jr.-1B, Thairo Estrada-2B, Marco Luciano-SS
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Blake Snell, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, Alex Cobb
Closer: Camilo Doval
Projected Record: 86-76

4. San Diego Padres: After a few years of going all-in and getting nothing to show for it, the Padres went the other way this offseason.  They knew they wouldn't be able to keep Snell or Soto, so they got younger and reloaded instead.  They still have their superstars, too.  So, even without Soto or Trent Grisham, their lineup still includes Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr.  They also think very highly of Jose Azocar, who takes Soto's place in the outfield.

One of their goals in the Soto trade was to acquire starting pitching.  They sure got it in the form of Michael King (whose inclusion was the holdup), Randy Vasquez and Jhonny Brito.  They also snagged a pitcher that the Yankees wanted in Dylan Cease.  So, their rotation actually isn't that bad.  It's certainly better than most people initially thought it would look.  The window isn't completely closed on the Padres.  Other than their NLCS run in 2022, they haven't really put together a whole season with this group.  If they can do it this year, they could surprise.
Projected Lineup: Ha-Seong Kim-2B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Fernando Tatis Jr.-RF, Manny Machado-DH, Jake Cronenworth-1B, Jurickson Profar-LF, Jose Azocar-CF, Graham Pauley-3B, Luis Campusano-C
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Randy Vasquez
Closer: Robert Suarez
Projected Record: 73-89

5. Colorado Rockies: Simply put, there isn't a lot of talent in Colorado.  There's really no way to sugarcoat it.  Last season, the Rockies lost 100 games for the first time in franchise history, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they do it again this year.  Not losing 100 is a much more realistic and attainable goal than making the playoffs.  Because this team doesn't have a chance of competing in this division. 

Kris Bryant used to be a star, and he's the closest thing the Rockies have to one.  The Kris Bryant who plays in Colorado is a shadow of the Kris Bryant who played in Chicago, though.  Yes, Elias Diaz was the MVP of the All*Star Game last year.  And Ryan McMahon isn't bad.  But this team is a far cry from the Todd Helton-Larry Walker days.  Kyle Freeland and Cal Quantrill are decent, but that's really all I've got to say about the pitching staff.
Projected Lineup: Brendan Rogers-2B, Ryan McMahon-3B, Kris Bryant-1B, Nolan Jones-LF, Charlie Blackmon-RF, Ezequiel Tovar-SS, Elias Diaz-C, Elehuris Montero-DH, Brenton Doyle-CF
Projected Rotation: Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill, Dakota Hudson, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner
Closer: Justin Lawrence
Projected Record: 61-101

Joe (Women's) Bracketology, 2024

Women's college basketball has never been hotter!  I'm not saying that just because Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese are the two biggest stars in the sport right now (men or women).  They're certainly a big part of it, and the show they put on in last season's National Championship Game was something else!  The women took that well-deserved Sunday afternoon on ABC showcase and ran with it, and this season has been an exceptional display.

Clark and Reese continued to be the story in 2023-24, but so did South Carolina.  Dawn Staley's team was undefeated heading into the NCAA Tournament last season, when they lost to Clark & Iowa in an outstanding Final Four game!  South Carolina enters the NCAA Tournament again (although, not without some controversy) and will be the clear No. 1 overall seed for the second straight year. 

Iowa's a clear No. 2 overall.  Although, because they're sticking with that ridiculous two Regional format, they and South Carolina will both play the second weekend in Albany.  The other Regional site is in Portland, where two Pac-12 teams will be the No. 1 seeds.  Whether it's USC 3/Stanford 4 or the other way around doesn't really make much of a difference.  They're likely both 1-seeds and they're both going to the Western regional site.  The only difference is one will get South Carolina in the Final Four and the other will get Iowa.  

It's actually been a bit of a banner year for the Pac-12 in its swan song.  UCLA's also a Top 10 team, and it's looking like they'll have five teams hosting in the first weekend, with Oregon State and Colorado likely joining those three.  For comparison's sake, the Big Ten should have three first/second round hosts, but no other conference will have more than two.

The major conferences have all had solid years.  As a result, the tournament field should be very top-heavy with major-conference teams.  Gonzaga (which might host the opening weekend) could be the only mid-major team that gets an at-large bid...and that's only because they lost to Portland in the WCC Championship Game!  If not for that Gonzaga loss, it's very possible that all 36 at-large bids would've gone to just six conferences.  (It'll be interesting to see how next season's conference realignment affects that.)

With all that in mind, making a mock women's bracket is much easier than making a mock men's bracket.  That's always the case, especially now that all of the conference tournaments in the major conferences are over before the men's tournaments start.  They don't have the chaos that happened on Saturday on the men's side.  There are no teams playing themselves in or knocking somebody out in the final days before Selection Sunday...although I'm sure that doesn't make the wait feel any shorter for the bubble teams.

They also get significantly more time on Sunday to finalize the bracket.  The men's games don't end until less than an hour before the Selection Show.  Meanwhile, there are only a handful of women's games, all in one-bid leagues, and they're all done by mid-afternoon, well before the Selection Show, which is after the men's.  That would be great for building the suspense if there was any, but, like the men, the top teams in the women's bracket seem pretty set.

Also, I'm sorry, but the two Regional site thing is beyond stupid!  There are four Regionals, but only two sites?  Why?  It must be cheaper, which is the only conceivable reason I can think of why they do it.  Because it certainly doesn't do anything to grow the game.  You would think they'd want to spread it around and go to more places, especially since the first weekend is played on campus.  They've already announced the sites for 2025 and 2026.  I sure hope this two-Regional experiment, which is in its second season, is done after that.

My other big gripe with the two Regional format is that it's beyond confusing!  Even when they went from naming them by region to naming them by site, there were still four distinct Regionals!  Heck, they even gave the Regionals different names when the entire tournament was in San Antonio in 2021!  Now, we get "Albany 1" and "Albany 2," as if that clarifies anything!

So, in my bracket, we're rectifying that problem.  Only one Regional will be named after the site.  The other in that location will get the "East" or "West" distinction.  Which means South Carolina gets "East," Iowa gets "Albany," USC gets "West" and Stanford gets "Portland."  As for the whole bracket, here it is...

EAST
Columbia: 16-UT Martin/Presbyterian at 1-South Carolina (1), 8-North Carolina vs. 9-Princeton
Bloomington: 13-Cal Baptist at 4-Indiana, 5-Kansas State vs. 12-Missouri State
Corvallis: 14-Portland at 3-Oregon State, 6-West Virginia vs. 11-Mid Tennessee
South Bend: 15-Norfolk State at 2-Notre Dame, 7-Mississippi vs. 10-Maryland

PORTLAND
Stanford: 16-Jackson State at 1-Stanford (4), 8-Iowa State vs. 9-Michigan State
Spokane: 13-Eastern Washington at 4-Gonzaga, 5-Syracuse vs. 12-Chattanooga
Raleigh: 14-Rice at 3-NC State, 6-Utah vs. 11-Marquette/Texas A&M
Austin: 15-UC Irvine at 2-Texas, 7-UNLV vs. 10-Auburn

ALBANY
Iowa City: 16-Sacred Heart/Holy Cross at 1-Iowa (2), 8-Florida State vs. 9-Alabama
Boulder: 13-South Dakota State at 4-Colorado, 5-Oklahoma vs. 12-Fairfield
Los Angeles (UCLA): 14-Kent State at 3-UCLA, 6-Duke vs. 11-Green Bay
Baton Rouge: 15-Maine at 2-LSU, 7-Creighton vs. 10-Miami

WEST
Los Angeles (USC): 16-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at 1-USC (3), 8-Nebraska vs. 9-Mississippi State
Blacksburg: 13-Florida Gulf Coast at 4-Virginia Tech, 5-Baylor vs. 12-Richmond
Storrs: 14-Drexel at 3-Connecticut, 6-Louisville vs. 11-Vanderbilt/Michigan
Columbus: 15-Marshall at 2-Ohio State, 7-Tennessee vs. 10-Kansas 

As I noted earlier, the only real difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 overall seeds for the two Pac-12 teams is which one gets South Carolina and which gets Iowa.  Since I gave USC the higher seed, it's the Trojans against their future conference rivals in the Final Four, while the other matchup pits South Carolina against Stanford.  That's assuming, of course, all four 1-seeds get to Cleveland, which is far from a certainty.  Not with how strong the women's game has been this season!

Would people love to see the clear top two teams--South Carolina and Iowa--meet for the National Championship?  Of course!  And there's certainly a very strong possibility that will happen.  It wouldn't be shocking if it didn't, though.

Joe (Men's) Bracketology, 2024

When I first started putting my "final" bracket together last night, it didn't look like this.  Purdue was my No. 1 overall seed.  They no longer are.  Fortunately, the 1- and 2-seeds all seem to be pretty set, so all I had to do there was switch which part of the bracket each region was.  I didn't actually have to move any teams around or take anybody out who I had in.

Then Arizona and Washington State both lost in the Pac-12 semis.  I had Colorado in the field, but in the First Four.  They can't go to Dayton if they're a conference champion, though, which means somebody had to get dropped into the First Four to make room for Colorado/Oregon as an AQ.  Then New Mexico, who I didn't even have making the tournament, won the Mountain West Tournament, which did knock somebody out.  Same with NC State winning five games in five days to pull off the shocker in the ACC.  Sorry, Mississippi State and South Florida!

The upsets in the Pac-12 and Mountain West were also bad news for the mid-major bubble teams.  Because I don't see any way either Indiana State OR Richmond gets in now.  Especially now that either UAB or Temple is getting the American's AQ.  So, that's a fourth team losing its spot entirely and another being relegated to the First Four because of conference tournament upsets.

Every other conference tournament remaining is either a one-bid league or both teams are already safely in, so that shouldn't impact who gets into the field.  Seedings?  Sure!  But all the bids have already been stolen.  It's just a matter of who steals them.

Purdue losing did have a bit of an impact on my bracket, but it was very minor.  As the No. 1 overall seed, I had the Boilermakers facing a First Four winner.  Now that they're not, that TBA 16-seed goes to Brooklyn to face UConn instead.  Which could actually be a good thing for Purdue.  They've lost to small schools from New Jersey (Saint Peter's and FDU) in the last two years.  New Jersey-adjacent Wagner figures to be headed to Dayton.  This way, Purdue can avoid them.  (And maybe the committee will throw them a bone and also keep Seton Hall and Saint Peter's away!)

Heading into Championship Week, the only real question was who would get the fourth 1-seed.  That was answered pretty quickly when Tennessee lost.  Although, with UConn in the East, Houston in the South and Purdue in the Midwest already set, whoever got the last 1-seed was getting sent out West regardless...and Arizona will be the No. 2 seed in the West, where the Regional is in Los Angeles!  So, ending up as a 2-seed might've put Tennessee in a better position (although, now they have to play UConn in Boston, so maybe not).

That's always an element of the bracket that I find fascinating.  They try to keep teams close to home, but it doesn't always work out in a nice, clean way.  Somebody has to travel regardless.  That's especially true this year since a majority of the first weekend sites are in the same general area of the country, and they also can't put Creighton in Omaha or Gonzaga in Spokane!

It's also interesting to see which lower-seeded teams end up having less travel.  BYU, for example, will probably be a 5-seed.  Do you send them to Salt Lake City, where they'll effectively have home-court advantage against a 4-seed in the second round?  (It's also worth noting that Salt Lake City is a Thursday/Saturday site, so it's one of only four BYU can go to!)  Likewise, do you put Washington State in Spokane as a 5-seed against a 4-seed that will definitely be traveling?

Before moving on to the bracket, a note on my bubble teams.  I had Seton Hall safely in, but those AQ bid-stealers has pushed them down to the point where I've got them headed to Dayton against Oklahoma, whose bye went to the Pac-12 winner.  The other First Four game is Michigan State, who can thank NC State for their extra NCAA Tournament game, against Texas A&M, who not only got in, but jumped over a couple teams, with that SEC Tournament run.

And with that, it's bracket time.  Since UConn's my No. 1 overall seed, that means it's East vs. West and South vs. Midwest in the Final Four.  Not that it makes any difference, but I have Houston as No. 2 overall (despite getting blown out by Iowa State!), with Purdue dropping to No. 3 overall.  That order could easily be reversed, though.  Either way, the defending National Champions are the clear No. 1 heading into the Big Dance.

EAST (Boston)
Brooklyn: 1-Connecticut (1) vs. 16-Wagner/Montana State, 8-Nebraska vs. 9-Texas
Omaha: 5-South Carolina vs. 12-VCU, 4-Kansas vs. 13-McNeese State
Pittsburgh: 6-Saint Mary's vs. 11-Oklahoma/Seton Hall, 3-Duke vs. 14-Akron
Memphis: 7-Nevada vs. 10-Colorado, 2-Tennessee vs. 15-Saint Peter's

WEST (Los Angeles)
Charlotte: 1-North Carolina (4) vs. 16-Stetson/Howard, 8-Boise State vs. 9-Northwestern
Pittsburgh: 5-BYU vs. 12-Grand Canyon, 4-Auburn vs. 13-UAB
Spokane: 6-Wisconsin vs. 11-New Mexico, 3-Baylor vs. 14-Colgate
Salt Lake City: 7-Gonzaga vs. 10-St. John's, 2-Arizona vs. 15-South Dakota State

SOUTH (Dallas)
Memphis: 1-Houston (2) vs. 16-Grambling, 8-Colorado State vs. 9-Drake
Brooklyn: 5-Washington State vs. 12-Vermont, 4-Illinois vs. 13-Yale
Charlotte: 6-San Diego State vs. 11-James Madison, 3-Kentucky vs. 14-Morehead State
Indianapolis: 7-Clemson vs. 10-TCU, 2-Marquette vs. 15-Oakland

MIDWEST (Detroit)
Indianapolis: 1-Purdue (3) vs. 16-Longwood, 8-Dayton vs. 9-Florida Atlantic
Spokane: 5-Texas Tech vs. 12-Samford, 4-Alabama vs. 13-Charleston
Salt Lake City: 6-Utah State vs. 11-Michigan State/Texas A&M, 3-Creighton vs. 14-Western Kentucky
Omaha: 7-Florida vs. 10-NC State, 2-Iowa State vs. 15-UC Davis

As for the conference breakdown, the Big 12 has been the strongest basketball conference in the country for the past few seasons, and that was the case once again this year.  I've got nine Big 12 teams in the field, including conference newcomers Houston and BYU (as well as soon-to-be Big 12 members Arizona and Colorado).  The SEC is next with seven, followed by the Big Ten and Mountain West with six each and the Big East with five.  The ACC gets four and the Pac-12 three, while the last three at-large bids go to the American, Atlantic 10 and West Coast Conference.

They call it March Madness for a reason.  We saw plenty of madness during Championship Week.  You can bet even more is in store once the Big Dance begins.  If these conference tournaments are any indication, we've got a heck of an NCAA Tournament coming up!

Everything's Already Done

NFL free agency is always weird.  We already know who's getting cut and who's singing or being traded where like a week beforehand, and it all becomes official within the first few hours of the league year starting.  (Meanwhile, baseball season starts in two weeks and Blake Snell, last season's Cy Young winner, remains unsigned.)  I get that it's all because of the salary cap and teams need to make their decisions before the Draft, but it really does take a lot of the suspense out of it.

Although, I guess the one good thing about it is that it keeps the conversation going and gives people a chance to start talking about some new-look teams and familiar faces in new places.  It seems inevitable that some of them won't work out (a la Russell Wilson to Denver).  While others were actually probably better for the player's former team.  And, let's not forget, every team knows what they want to do in the Draft next month, so this was all just setting the stage for that.

What's always fascinating, too, is how so many moves are interconnected.  One signing has such a trickle-down effect.  You sign someone, so you release the guy who's already on the roster, so he ends up going somewhere else, and they cut or trade their incumbent to make room.  We've already seen that a lot this offseason, starting with the aforementioned Russell Wilson.

Wilson in Denver didn't work out, so the Broncos released him after two dreadful seasons.  He's signing with Pittsburgh, which means Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph needed a new home.  He's headed to Tennessee along with former Cowboys running back Tony Pollard and former Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley.  The Jaguars, meanwhile, traded for Mac Jones to be Trevor Lawrence's backup, with Jacoby Brissett returning to the Patriots as the backup for whatever quarterback they end up drafting.

Jamies Winston has spent his entire career in the NFC South with Tampa Bay and New Orleans.  Now, he's off to Cleveland to backup DeShaun Watson.  Which, presumably, solves the Browns' quarterback situation.  Although, Joe Flacco, who resurrected his career in Cleveland, now heads to the QB Retirement Community that is Indianapolis.  How the guy from Florida the Colts drafted last year works into this equation, I don't know.

Tyrod Taylor is staying in New York, but going from blue to green.  Should the Jets go on a deep playoff run and Vice President Rodgers has to leave the team to begin his duties in Washington, it'll be Tyrod Taylor under center!  (Neither of those things will actually happen, but it's still funny to think about.)  Drew Lock is taking his place with the Giants, while Sam Darnold is off to Minnesota (more on that in a second) and Marcus Mariota will add the Commanders, who will almost certainly draft a quarterback No. 2 overall, to his list of teams.

Perhaps the biggest quarterback move of all, though, is one that very few people saw coming.  Kirk Cousins is headed to Atlanta on a four-year, $180 million deal with $100 million guaranteed.  He's since said that he can see himself ending his career with the Falcons.  Last season, they needed an elite quarterback desperately, so this could be the thing that puts them over the top in a crowded NFC South.  Likewise, the Vikings are suddenly nowhere near close enough to the Lions and Packers to be considered a serious contender in the NFC North.

Now, let's talk about the running backs.  One running back in particular.  After eight years in Tennessee, Derrick Henry is a Baltimore Raven.  Suddenly, the Ravens have a running game.  And they didn't just get one of the best running backs in football, they got a work horse.  Lamar Jackson doesn't have to do it all by himself anymore.  It sounds weird to be talking about the team that hosted the AFC Championship Game being flawed, but the Chiefs exposed those flaws, which the Ravens have now addressed.

With Jason Kelce retiring and the tush push likely being outlawed, Philadelphia figures to take a step back this season.  The Eagles did address their running game, though, going in-division to snag Saquon Barkley away from the Giants.  Giants fans weren't happy about Saquon's decision to leave, but the money they save was re-invested very well.  The much cheaper Devin Singletary is their new featured back.  They were able to bring in two offensive linemen.  And, to top it all off, they swung a trade with the Panthers for Brian Burns, giving them a second elite pass rusher to put opposite Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Joe Mixon wanted out of Cincinnati.  He got his wish and was traded to the Texans.  Austin Ekeler, meanwhile, signed with the Commanders, who are seemingly remaking their entire roster.  Washington is also bringing in longtime Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner to shore up their defense.  The Commanders are like the Bears.  It'll take a lot for them to become good again, especially in the NFC East.  But now that their ownership situation is settled, they're at least making the effort to put a competitive team out there this season.  Whether it'll work is an entirely different question.

Meanwhile, over in the NFC North, the interdivision inbreeding continues to run rampant.  The Packers upgraded at running back by signing former Raider Josh Jacobs to a four-year deal.  So, where did Aaron Jones, who's been Green Bay's starter for the past few seasons, go?  Minnesota!  And D'Andre Swift, who was jettisoned by the Eagles when they signed Barkley, is now in Chicago.

I haven't really touched on the defensive guys yet, and that's because there haven't been many big-name defensive players who've changed teams.  I've noticed a bit of a shift in philosophy over the past few seasons.  NFL owners and GMs are more willing to part with offensive talent.  It's not that they think they're expendable.  Rather, I think they just figure they can get similar production from a cheaper alternative, so it's not worth paying the massive contract.  On the defensive side, though, they're more willing to pay up and keep somebody they know can be a difference-maker.

Take the Chiefs.  The only things they've done so far are lock up Chris Jones (for five years) and Jrue Tranquill (for three), while tagging L'Jarius Sneed.  Now, I have no idea how much credence to put into those rankings that just came out that placed Clark Hunt towards the bottom as one of the worst owners in the league.  So, maybe free agents don't want to go there (which is a crazy thought in its own right because of the Chiefs' success and the chance to play for Andy Reid, but I digress).  But the guys who are already there are clearly happy, and Kansas City is happy with them, so why not continue the good thing you've had going for six years?

There are a lot of players in the NFL, and there's been a lot of movement in the first few days of free agency.  There figures to be more, too.  But the amount that gets done in early March truly is staggering!  It's a lesson that MLB could take.  Their season starts a lot sooner than football season!  There's no reason free agent football players should know where they're playing in 2024 before free agent baseball players.

Who Got Better at the Deadline?

Heading into the NHL Trade Deadline, there were only a handful of teams that could legitimately be considered Stanley Cup contenders.  Now that the deadline has come and passed, I'm not sure if that list has actually grown or not.  But what I do know is that some teams absolutely put themselves in a better position to make a run into June...or beyond.

One team that's absolutely set itself up for "beyond" is the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights.  Frankly, I'm not entirely sure how Vegas is able to continually add big names with their big contracts, yet somehow still stay under the salary cap (Mark Stone can't be making that much money!).  This year, they did it again, adding Noah Hanifan (to give them four top-pair defensemen) and making the shocking last-minute move to get Tomas Hertl, who has six years remaining on his contract, from San Jose.

Vegas is currently in a fight just to make the playoffs, and the Knights' chances of getting in certainly improved.  And the Stanley Cup Playoffs are as much about getting in as anything else, so I'm not counting them out if they get there.  But they know that even if they do, they're still not as good as Vancouver, Colorado or even Winnipeg.  With Hanifan and Hertl in the mix beyond the final six weeks of this season, though, they're poised to remain among the top teams in the West next season and beyond.

Another team that made itself better at the Deadline was the Golden Knights' Stanley Cup Final opponent last season--the Florida Panthers.  The Panthers were already one of the best teams in hockey.  Adding Vladimir Tarasenko to a roster that already included Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe made them that much better.  They also added a bottom-six forward in Kyle Okposo.  The Panthers didn't need to do much, but the moves they did make firmly established them as one of the favorites to come out of the East.

It'll by no means be easy for the Panthers to return to the Stanley Cup Final, though.  Because they're not the only team in the East that got better.  In fact, two of the teams they defeated in the playoffs last season also set themselves up for another deep postseason run.  Those teams are the Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins.

Carolina has been chasing the Rangers in the Metropolitan Division all season.  Their chances of catching them went up as soon as they won the Jake Guentzel sweepstakes (the Rangers were also in on Guentzel).  They also took a flier on Evgeny Kuznetsov, whose career in Washington came to an unceremonious end.  If they get the version of Kuznetsov who helped the Capitals win the Cup in 2018, he and Guentzel are exactly the type of players who'll fit in seamlessly with the Hurricanes.

The Bruins, meanwhile, got Pat Maroon, so they might as well just cancel the playoffs and give Boston the Cup right now!  I kid, obviously, but the three-time Cup winner is a good addition.  They could've used someone with his toughness last season, when they got upset by the Panthers.  They're also likely thinking about a potential first-round series with Toronto, where somebody like a Pat Maroon could definitely make an impact.

That leaves the New York Rangers.  For weeks, the Rangers have made it known that they needed a top-line right wing and a third-line center.  They got the third-line center in Alex Wennberg, but the trade for a top-line right wing never materialized.  They watched Guentzel go to Carolina, and Anaheim's asking price for Frank Vatrano (who was previously a Rangers Deadline acquisition a few years ago) was too high, so they ended up with Jack Roslovic of the Blue Jackets instead.  No offense to Jack Roslovic, but he's not exactly who they were looking for.  Especially with the Panthers and Hurricanes both getting better.

I do get Rangers GM Chris Drury's thought process here.  He wasn't leveraging the team's future by trading away multiple prospects and/or draft picks (not to mention a high-upside NHL player in Kaapo Kakko) for a rental.  So, Drury was keeping the 2024-25, 2025-26 and 2026-27 Rangers in mind, while also betting that the 2023-24 team, which was already pretty good, is still good enough to make a Cup run with the pieces he did add.  This is the exact opposite approach than the Rangers used the last two seasons, when they made the splashy trades for Tarasenko and Patrick Kane.  Neither of those seasons ended with them lifting the Stanley Cup, so why not try it this way?

Out West, meanwhile, it wasn't just Vegas making moves.  Like the Rangers, Colorado didn't make a big splash.  The Avalanche did make some minor trades, though, improving their depth.  There's also rumblings that they'll get their captain, Gabriel Landeskog, who's been out all season due to injury, back for the playoffs.  That would be just as big an addition as anybody they could've traded for.

Everybody in the West will be chasing Vancouver, though.  The Canucks' didn't do anything at the Deadline.  Because they didn't need to!  Which is because they didn't wait until the Deadline.  They struck first and got Elias Lindholm at the All*Star Break, so he's been a Canuck for a month already!  Like the Panthers and Golden Knights, they were already damn good and got a whole lot better!  The Canucks don't have to worry about making the playoffs.  They're thinking Stanley Cup, which is why they struck early to land Lindholm.

Then there's Edmonton.  We already knew the Oilers have loads of talent.  That talent is top-heavy, however.  So, they addressed their depth, bringing in Adam Henrique (another Rangers target), among others.  While it makes them deeper, does it make them deep enough?  I'm not sure.  My guess is probably not.  They do seem better equipped to make a deep playoff run than they did even a week ago, though.

Only one team will end up winning the Cup.  Obviously.  So, at least seven of the eight teams I've mentioned will be disappointed at the end of the season.  And I didn't even talk about teams like Toronto, Tampa Bay, Dallas and Winnipeg.  All of them can also make a legitimate case as a Stanley Cup contender, as well.  Because, don't forget, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are sometimes just as much about who has a hot goalie as anything else.

With that in mind, it wouldn't surprise me if none of these teams end up even playing for the Cup!  Look at the Panthers last year.  They only got in because Pittsburgh lost to Chicago in the last game of the season, and nobody had them beating the Bruins.  Let alone winning the East!  If I had to bet, though, it would be one of the contenders who made themselves better at the Deadline who end up hoisting the Stanley Cup in June.

Full Gender Equity In Paris

On International Women's Day, the IOC made the most apropos announcement it could.  And it was an announcement that was a long time coming.  For the first time in Olympic history, there will be full gender equity this summer at the Paris Games.  After women made up a mere 34 percent of the athletes at the 1996 Games in Atlanta, just 28 years later, half of the Olympic athletes will be women.

It's fitting that this will happen in Paris, too.  It was 124 years ago in Paris that women competed in the Olympics for the first time.  While the 1896 Games featured 43 men's events and no events for women, 22 women took part in 1900.  There were women's events in golf and tennis, and some women also participated in the sailing competition.  They made up 2.2 percent of the athletes...which would actually be the highest percentage until a whopping 2.5 percent of the athletes were female at the 1920 Antwerp Games.

That number was up to 4.4 percent the last time Paris hosted a century ago.  Women competed in track & field for the first time four years later in Amsterdam, and the percentage of female athletes at the Olympics finally jumped over 10 percent in 1952.  The 20 percent barrier was broken in Montreal in 1976, and the amount of women athletes has gone up incrementally since then, peaking at 47.8 percent in Tokyo before finally hitting the 50 percent barrier this year.

While this will be the first time in Olympic history that the athlete distribution is even, it won't be the first time at an international multi-sport event.  That distinction belongs to the 2018 Commonwealth Games, where the number of men's and women's events was also equal.  At the 2022 Commonwealth Games, meanwhile, there were more women's events for the first time ever at a major international competition.

We won't know the exact splits until the Olympics get closer and countries name their national teams.  So, it's possible that it won't be an even 50-50.  There may even end up being more women than men, as was the case with the American team in Tokyo.  Regardless, the fact that we're even talking about it is huge.  And it shows how far women's sports have come.

There will be 329 medal events in Paris.  The distribution isn't fully balanced, but it's close--157 men's events, 152 women's events, 20 mixed events.  Of the 32 sports, 28 will have full gender parity and one of the four that doesn't--rhythmic gymnastics--is a women's-only sport (a maximum of two men per team will be eligible to compete in artistic swimming, the other previously women's-only sport, for the first time in Paris).

Distribution won't necessarily be the same at the sports where it is equal, either.  In soccer, for example, the men's tournament includes 16 teams, while the women's tournament is only 12.  Likewise, in water polo, it's 12 men's teams and 10 women's.  But, that's balanced out by having more quota places for women in other sports (such as rhythmic gymnastics and artistic swimming).

Not only that, but the IOC will be continuing a tradition that started in Tokyo.  Each nation will be allowed to select two flagbearers for the Opening and Closing Ceremony--one man, one woman.  Every country is also being encouraged to have at least one male and one female athlete.  Whether that actually happens remains to be seen, but it's clear what the goal here is.  As is the message that's being sent.  Women aren't just a part of the show.  They're the stars.  And they deserve the equal billing they're getting.

And, make no mistake, women will be THE stars!  Katie Ledecky.  Simone Biles.  Sydney McLaughlin.  And that's just on the American team!  There will be plenty of international women taking their star turn in Paris, too, from Femke Bol to Ariane Titmus to the Chinese divers.

Women will be showcased at an Olympics like never before--and not just because of the roughly equal athlete ratio.  For the first time, the final event of the Games, taking place just hours before the Closing Ceremony, will be the women's marathon.  And the marathon course is inspired by the 1789 Women's March on Versailles, a key moment in the French Revolution.

Frankly, this has been a long time coming.  And not just because the percentage of female participants has been trickling upwards at every Olympics since World War II.  The IOC has been very deliberate in adding women's events (sometimes dropping men's events and replacing them with women's events), but they haven't done that just to increase women's participation.  They've done it because more women are involved in sports than ever before all over the world and they wanted to make sure that representation is proportional.  So, really, it was just a matter of time until the number of female participants/events was equal.

This will obviously be the biggest stage where women's participation has been growing, but it's far from the only major sporting event where we've seen it.  Last year's Women's World Cup was the largest ever, a 32-team spectacle that was far and away the best tournament in history.  And the biggest star in college basketball (men's or women's) right now is Caitlin Clark.  Women's sports have never been bigger, so it's only fitting that we'll see them equally represented at the Olympics for the first time while on such a high.

If you think it's stopping in Paris, you've got another thing coming!  The IOC will make sure of it.  As IOC President Thomas Bach said in the announcement, "Our commitment to gender equity does not end in Paris.  We will continue to pave the way for women and work with our stakeholders.  The IOC will continue to lead and use the power of sport to contribute to a more equal society."

As Beyonce declared, "Who runs the world?  Girls!"  We'll see that on full display at the Paris Olympics.  Men and women may be fully sharing the Olympic stage for the first time, but no mistake whose show it'll really be.  Paris 1900 is when women first competed at the Olympics.  At Paris 2024, they won't just make up half the competitors, they'll be the stars.